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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021


MAG5035
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  On 1/27/2021 at 4:06 PM, paweather said:

 

We still get crushed with backend snow on the GFS. 

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Dont get me wrong, I'm not complaining whatsoever, but merely pointing out things to watch.  I'd absolutely take what the GFS is serving....even if I only get 4", but its hard to swallow when true central gets another 8-12"

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  On 1/27/2021 at 4:15 PM, pasnownut said:

Dont get me wrong, I'm not complaining whatsoever, but merely pointing out things to watch.  I'd absolutely take what the GFS is serving....even if I only get 4", but its hard to swallow when true central gets another 8-12"

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Yeah I know your not complaining. I was just happy to see the backend snow on this model for now and duration of the event.

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  On 1/27/2021 at 4:16 PM, paweather said:

Yeah I know your not complaining. I was just happy to see the backend snow on this model for now and duration of the event.

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If that happens as modeled, yeah I'd love the long duration mood snows after thermals recover.  After all sleet is for pack retention. 

Buckle up, cause there's something following as well. 500s at 192 notably diff. and less ridgy here...another to watch?? time will tell.

 

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  On 1/27/2021 at 4:47 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

CMC track and progression looks much better to me than what the pretty maps indicate. I thought the pretty maps would look prettier - there is also a big dry slot on the CMC over SE PA where storm total QPF is less than .50" Something to watch. 

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The dreaded Miller B dry slot....aka the screw zone.

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  On 1/27/2021 at 4:43 PM, pasnownut said:

Primary dies a little earlier, and coastal is just a beaut.  Only thing its missing is NW quadrant of precip, because at 994 and slow speed, I'd expect more qpf back into CTP/NEPA.

 gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

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Total weenie opinion but I think the QPF would be higher given that track.  Give me what the CMC just showed, and I think we’d all be happy!

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  On 1/27/2021 at 4:58 PM, GrandmasterB said:

Total weenie opinion but I think the QPF would be higher given that track.  Give me what the CMC just showed, and I think we’d all be happy!

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agreed.  Likely more qpf back NW due to speed and fetch.  If it holds close to this, i'd expect better precip panels to show up.  

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Yea the Canadian has been throwing out really great tracks to hold the precip shield right over PA and keep it mostly snow but has been somewhat dry on QPF. Like that's pretty much what we're looking for in terms of a Miller B track.  Certainly the fetch via 850mb easterly wind anomalies could argue for sufficient moisture to support more robust QPF with the high up north and a long duration slow moving coastal. 

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My new company is going to call me to set up travel arrangements for my new job, so I'm trying to figure out timing of my flight, most likely (hopefully) early Sunday. I want to try and get out before the snow flies if possible so as not to put my family in any kind of danger driving me to the airport and back home again after dropping me off.

What looks, and I know it's early and much could change, to be the best estimate of onset of precipitation? I will be flying out of Scranton or Allentown.

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  On 1/27/2021 at 5:45 PM, Voyager said:

My new company is going to call me to set up travel arrangements for my new job, so I'm trying to figure out timing of my flight, most likely (hopefully) early Sunday. I want to try and get out before the snow flies if possible so as not to put my family in any kind of danger driving me to the airport and back home again after dropping me off.

What looks, and I know it's early and much could change, to be the best estimate of onset of precipitation? I will be flying out of Scranton or Allentown.

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I'd try to get out Saturday, honestly, to be safe if you can. If a big storm is coming, airlines might not transition the regional jets just to get stuck for a few days without the hub load. 

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  On 1/27/2021 at 5:54 PM, canderson said:

I'd try to get out Saturday, honestly, to be safe if you can. If a big storm is coming, airlines might not transition the regional jets just to get stuck for a few days without the hub load. 

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Thanks. It depends on how many nights they want to put me up in a motel. I'm not sure they'll want to spring for an extra night. I can't believe we've gone over a month without a big storm, and now, on my possible departure day, we may be in one...ugh. That's why I had hoped it was going to be a Monday-Tuesday event instead of perhaps a Sunday--Monday one.

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  On 1/27/2021 at 6:00 PM, Voyager said:

Thanks. It depends on how many nights they want to put me up in a motel. I'm not sure they'll want to spring for an extra night. I can't believe we've gone over a month without a big storm, and now, on my possible departure day, we may be in one...ugh. That's why I had hoped it was going to be a Monday-Tuesday event instead of perhaps a Sunday--Monday one.

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Yeah, for you I hope it's late Sunday too. If you can get out Saturday and need any help for a motel, DM me. 

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  On 1/27/2021 at 6:08 PM, canderson said:

Yeah, for you I hope it's late Sunday too. If you can get out Saturday and need any help for a motel, DM me. 

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Can confirm. I DM'd this guy for motel ideas for a weekend away with his wife and he set me up in a five star suite along Rte 30 in Breezewood. You're in capable hands. 

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