Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

[Cashtown_Coop]

Just now, paweather said:

Well.....

I’m toggling back and forth between here and the ma forum lol.   Keep it coming 

[paweather]

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

I’m toggling back and forth between here and the ma forum lol.   Keep it coming 

At least you cannot get a better setup than this. H to the North L to the South. 

[paweather]

WOW Moving so slow up the coast. Maryland gets ROCKED. 

*Edit - It is like a stall right now. MA Forum Congrats this run for sure. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

WOW Moving so slow up the coast. Maryland gets ROCKED. 

*Edit - It is like a stall right now. MA Forum Congrats this run for sure. 

Nice to see the euro hold onto the big storm idea.   Each run will be a tad different entering game time.   I wouldn’t want to be the bullseye this far out 

[paweather]

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Nice to see the euro hold onto the big storm idea.   Each run will be a tad different entering game time.   I wouldn’t want to be the bullseye this far out 

Absolutely it is an interesting progression as to how slow this is up the coast, almost reminds me of a March storm. We get hit but the primary ends of dying almost completely due to how slow the transfer gets up the coast. This is good for this far out. 

[MAG5035]

I already like the prospects of this weekend system much better than the current one. Let's compare 500mb. I'm using the GFS for now just to give the general picture.

Currently:

Gigantic trough in the west that drove up heights enough to send this dying 500 mb feature and surface low north of us while the sheared nature of the system split the WAA precip south and the precip with the primary low to the north yesterday. Our current event was an issue in the QPF department more than anything else. Just a run of the mill 0.5" QPF event up front would've likely given us a half decent thump of snow. Def a bust but this split was showing in guidance for a couple days on the lead up. Seeing any frozen precip at all is a testament to the blocking up top. We're likely 60ºF+ without it. 

So let's look at the GFS take on the weekend system, which has some mixing issues but a good bit of front end snowfall. 

129hr:

 

144hr

We finally get some ridging building in the western states and have an amplifying trough in the east. Ridge axis maybe a tad east of the ideal position but wavelengths are pretty short with this active pattern. This is a much better look for a strengthening system that can deliver decent precip. We also have a Canadian high being placed in a pretty good spot (didn't have much high support with the current system). You can see another shortwave carving the trough even deeper. Issue with the GFS was primary surface low tracking a little bit high and a late secondary takeover, but it still delivers a decent event. GEFS looks very supportive of the miller-B scenario and decent snows. 

Looking at the Canadian, the surface low track is about perfect for a PA snow event via a miller B evolution.. but not much precip and a very drawn out event. New Euro coming in is largely south of PA (starting to sneak into LSV at later hours) but is in the process of burying the Mid-Atlantic folks so far through hr 174, wow. 

 

[sauss06]

i like where we sit. 

[pasnownut]

28 minutes ago, paweather said:

Didn't JB always say what latitude a shortwave came in off the pacific would be the same latitude when it reaches the East. I could be wrong but thought I heard him say that for years. 

Yeppers.  Euro is a slammer....right where we want it.  

[Itstrainingtime]

Bring this puppy home MAG! 

[pasnownut]

21 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yep I remember that as well as a Weather World watcher. 

BTW they pooh pooh next monday as a bit of rain n snow last night.

The Euro would make what's left of Knights and Gadomski's hair fall right out.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

i like where we sit. 

well hello there.  Beer run Friday?  Hope so....

[MAG5035]

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

i like where we sit. 

I'll be curious to see where the Euro ensemble is with this today. 

[paweather]

Just now, pasnownut said:

BTW they pooh pooh next monday as a bit of rain n snow last night.

The Euro would make what's left of Knights and Gadomski's hair fall right out.

It was a crazy run today! Crawling up the coast like that. It was snowing just below the M/D line for hours before LSV got anything. I do like where we sit right now as Sauss said. 

[paweather]

5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I already like the prospects of this weekend system much better than the current one. Let's compare 500mb. I'm using the GFS for now just to give the general picture.

Currently:

Gigantic trough in the west that drove up heights enough to send this dying 500 mb feature and surface low north of us while the sheared nature of the system split the WAA precip south and the precip with the primary low to the north yesterday. Our current event was an issue in the QPF department more than anything else. Just a run of the mill 0.5" QPF event up front would've likely given us a half decent thump of snow. Def a bust but this split was showing in guidance for a couple days on the lead up. Seeing any frozen precip at all is a testament to the blocking up top. We're likely 60ºF+ without it. 

So let's look at the GFS take on the weekend system, which has some mixing issues but a good bit of front end snowfall. 

129hr:

 

144hr

We finally get some ridging building in the western states and have an amplifying trough in the east. Ridge axis maybe a tad east of the ideal position but wavelengths are pretty short with this active pattern. This is a much better look for a strengthening system that can deliver decent precip. We also have a Canadian high being placed in a pretty good spot (didn't have much high support with the current system). You can see another shortwave carving the trough even deeper. Issue with the GFS was primary surface low tracking a little bit high and a late secondary takeover, but it still delivers a decent event. GEFS looks very supportive of the miller-B scenario and decent snows. 

Looking at the Canadian, the surface low track is about perfect for a PA snow event via a miller B evolution.. but not much precip and a very drawn out event. New Euro coming in is largely south of PA (starting to sneak into LSV at later hours) but is in the process of burying the Mid-Atlantic folks so far through hr 174, wow. 

 

Thanks for the update, Mag. I'll remain excited. 

[sauss06]

Just now, pasnownut said:

well hello there.  Beer run Friday?  Hope so....

every Friday, regardless

 

[canderson]

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

every Friday, regardless

 

I'm out of Nugget Nectar - what to do?

[paweather]

Mag when you get a chance if you have time to discuss the differences in the GFS and EURO it is pretty outstanding in my amateur eyes. Can you explain that, it just seems like the GFS holds on to the Primary longer and the EURO transfers to the NC coast more quicker. Am I looking at this right? 

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

It was a crazy run today! Crawling up the coast like that. It was snowing just below the M/D line for hours before LSV got anything. I do like where we sit right now as Sauss said. 

Only wish is that it would continue a bit further up instead of out.  Surely a beast so as it is, but as Mag suggested, with better ridging out west, it might help for this to turn up a bit more.  With the stall between 144-156 it really would bring eastern Pa into the goods.  Not a complaint whatsoever for what it just spit out.  Just remember we are still 7 days out, so keep the lube handy, cause this could still get the shaft in the end.  

[paweather]

Just now, pasnownut said:

Only wish is that it would continue a bit further up instead of out.  Surely a beast so as it is, but as Mag suggested, with better ridging out west, it might help for this to turn up a bit more.  With the stall between 144-156 it really would bring eastern Pa into the goods.  Not a complaint whatsoever for what it just spit out.  Just remember we are still 7 days out, so keep the lube handy, cause this could still get the shaft in the end.  

No doubt about it. I still do like where we are right now given this is 7 days out as you said. 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Mag when you get a chance if you have time to discuss the differences in the GFS and EURO it is pretty outstanding in my amateur eyes. Can you explain that, it just seems like the GFS holds on to the Primary longer and the EURO transfers to the NC coast more quicker. Am I looking at this right? 

Im no Mag, but yes.  GFS was ugly and strung out.  Euro was nice transfer (earlier than prior runs), and then pops and stalls off VA coast.  

We need the GFS to weaken primary in upcoming runs and go to the ICON/Euro looks.  Not sure where i'd place money right now, but I know where i wanna....

[whiteout]

No doubt about it. I still do like where we are right now given this is 7 days out as you said. 

Not quite seven days out. Snow really starts breaking out across the mid Atlantic in a little over five days.


.

[Superstorm]

Im no Mag, but yes.  GFS was ugly and strung out.  Euro was nice transfer (earlier than prior runs), and then pops and stalls off VA coast.  
We need the GFS to weaken primary in upcoming runs and go to the ICON/Euro looks.  Not sure where i'd place money right now, but I know where i wanna....

Euro.


.

[Itstrainingtime]

23 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If only...

Nothing, I mean nothing will get me excited at this lead time. Nope...not happening. 

Then again - it's nice to have the #1 model showing it.  

F that...let's do this. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Euro.


.

Even with last run, euro puts 1.2” qpf for my area all snow.  With ratios that could be 18”+ and not even close to the jackpot area.    I like this one 

[MAG5035]

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

Mag when you get a chance if you have time to discuss the differences in the GFS and EURO it is pretty outstanding in my amateur eyes. Can you explain that, it just seems like the GFS holds on to the Primary longer and the EURO transfers to the NC coast more quicker. Am I looking at this right? 

Euro primary's on a trajectory notably south of the GFS and definitely slower. It gets secondary going all the way down in GA/SC that arcs up to VA Beach. Energy phases and it hangs the low right around there before fading out. The low's in an okay spot for us where it hangs but the way it get's there probably limits precip extent into our neck of the woods. 

7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Im no Mag, but yes.  GFS was ugly and strung out.  Euro was nice transfer (earlier than prior runs), and then pops and stalls off VA coast.  

We need the GFS to weaken primary in upcoming runs and go to the ICON/Euro looks.  Not sure where i'd place money right now, but I know where i wanna....

The GFS isn't really that bad, it was pretty close but a bit late on the secondary and the primary comes across the country higher. Canadian tracks more similar to the Euro but like mentioned  above the Euro has the secondary going the whole way from the SE while Canadian transfers a weaker low from the Oh Valley to the Delmarva. The Euro basically just put up the ideal way to bury DC/Northern VA with it's 12z op run. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Even with last run, euro puts 1.2” qpf for my area all snow.  With ratios that could be 18”+ and not even close to the jackpot area.    I like this one 

Hoping the King (I'll call him that today for obvious reasons) stays close to its look, and even a compromise between the big guns gets all of us into something....with the GFS being the worst of the bunch.  Hoping it caves soon and Euro stays south for a bit longer.

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Euro primary's on a trajectory notably south of the GFS and definitely slower. It gets secondary going all the way down in GA/SC that arcs up to VA Beach. Energy phases and it hangs the low right around there before fading out. The low's in an okay spot for us where it hangs but the way it get's there probably limits precip extent into our neck of the woods. 

The GFS isn't really that bad, it was pretty close but a bit late on the secondary and the primary comes across the country higher. Canadian tracks more similar to the Euro but like mentioned  above the Euro has the secondary going the whole way from the SE while Canadian transfers a weaker low from the Oh Valley to the Delmarva. The Euro basically just put up the ideal way to bury DC/Northern VA with it's 12z op run. 

the transfer on the GFS looks much less appealing when one looks at the ICON/Euro and even CMC.

In my mind, GFS oozes dryslot w/ spacing issues it shows.  That's all I'm getting at.  The "others" just look more clean and consolidated (even though CMC was a bit wonky and strung out).  In my eyes its the GFS holding the primary longer that makes it look less appetizing.  Plenty more runs to decipher, but hey....we're trackin.

[pasnownut]

also to add to above, the GFSs late handoff would present thermal issues into same areas that saw them today, as lover levels would warm while waiting for secondary to pop.  The "others" would not present that worry as SLP stay under and East saving our precious thermals.   

[MAG5035]

14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

the transfer on the GFS looks much less appealing when one looks at the ICON/Euro and even CMC.

In my mind, GFS oozes dryslot w/ spacing issues it shows.  That's all I'm getting at.  The "others" just look more clean and consolidated (even though a bit wonky and strung out).  In my eyes its the GFS holding the primary longer that makes it look less appetizing.  Plenty more runs to decipher, but hey....we're trackin.

We gotta get the WAA precip with the primary to us and then get the transfer going, basically what the GFS does on the front end but get a transfer positioned like the Canadian. The Euro evolution drops it under us when it transfers to the secondary all the way in GA/SC. I mean yea it does catch the LSV below the turnpike pretty good in the end but I'm def not rooting for forum splitters.

Early looks of the Euro ensemble looked good, there's several big PA hits in it. 

3 day total snowfall:

[paweather]

36 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Im no Mag, but yes.  GFS was ugly and strung out.  Euro was nice transfer (earlier than prior runs), and then pops and stalls off VA coast.  

We need the GFS to weaken primary in upcoming runs and go to the ICON/Euro looks.  Not sure where i'd place money right now, but I know where i wanna....

Thanks Nut.