Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Check out the WPC day 5 qpf map. Brings the .75 to 1.00” line all the way to southern PA. That is pretty encouraging. Thanks. Does that include both systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Here is ice predictions for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Let’s go 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, pawatch said: Here is ice predictions for Monday. I just looked at the snowfall map. I'd say 3-4 here, maybe 5 as I'm right on the line of 3-4 and 4-6. We'll see, but I usually end up on the low side of any predicted range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 0z NAM looks a little colder/snowier to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gotta love the 3K NAM the past two cycles giving 3-4" MDT area with a bit more m-d counties. 12K cut totals in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 51 minutes ago, paweather said: Let’s go 0z. The 0z NAMs get a decent front end thump of snow into CTP Monday night and then transition to a wintry mix by Tuesday morning. Here is the front end snow thump as it moves into the LSV Monday evening on the 3k & 12k 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 0z NAM looks a little colder/snowier to me. Yes, compared to 18Z, snowfall on both NAMS increased on 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Yes, compared to 18Z, snowfall on both NAMS increased on 0Z. Here are the 0z NAM 3k & 12k snow maps. The 3k still has precip going at the end of the 60 hour run which is a mix for most of us at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here are the 0z NAM 3k & 12k snow maps. The 3k still has precip going at the end of the 60 hour run which is a mix for most of us at that point. Good start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 You really have to love the entire run of the 18Z GFS. There appears to be at least 3 more snowfalls in the second half of the run. The best news really is that a few days ago the model had a significant warmup hitting us after Feb 1st. Now it has totally changed with the majority of the 15 days cold. The coldest air of the season with 850's around -20C arrive here on D14, Feb 8th. Have to say a very encouraging run overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 27 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: You really have to love the entire run of the 18Z GFS. There appears to be at least 3 more snowfalls in the second half of the run. The best news really is that a few days ago the model had a significant warmup hitting us after Feb 1st. Now it has totally changed with the majority of the 15 days cold. The coldest air of the season with 850's around -20C arrive here on D14, Feb 8th. Have to say a very encouraging run overall. That was a great 18z GFS run. The end of the run looks very cold as you mentioned. Multiple winter storm chances and even 1 more threat moving into the central states at the end of the run that would hit us the following day or 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 56 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: You really have to love the entire run of the 18Z GFS. There appears to be at least 3 more snowfalls in the second half of the run. The best news really is that a few days ago the model had a significant warmup hitting us after Feb 1st. Now it has totally changed with the majority of the 15 days cold. The coldest air of the season with 850's around -20C arrive here on D14, Feb 8th. Have to say a very encouraging run overall. Just great. The 8th is my birthday and I was going to have a big picnic and pool party that day... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The 0z GFS run gets decent snow into the southern third of PA for the Thursday event. Just as @Itstrainingtime has mentioned, this is right where we want it to be at this range. Plenty of time for a slight north trend to get us in the jackpot zone closer to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Here is the 2 event snow total Kuchera ratio 0z GFS snow map for both storms combined this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The 6z GFS & GEFS are still giving the southern third of PA snow with the Thursday event. Plenty of time for a further north trend & hopefully the Euro gets on board today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Hopefully the 12z runs juice back up the Monday night & Tuesday event so we can get a decent front end snow thump before we mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hopefully the 12z runs juice back up the Monday night & Tuesday event so we can get a decent front end s pa thump before we mix. I’m with you Blizz! At least it is something other than wind, clouds, or sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Hopefully the 12z runs juice back up the Monday night & Tuesday event so we can get a decent front end s pa thump before we mix. Nam coming in strong glancing at ma forum. WPC showing .50” to .75” contour for sw pa over to about me. Hopefully things juice up a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 NAM looking good for a thump before turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The 12z HRRR which extends out to 48 hours has some front end snow for us Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, paweather said: NAM looking good for a thump before turn. The best part of both of the 12z NAM runs is that the best snow totals are from the southern tier of PA and to the south in MD. Still over 36 hours to go for a small bump north to get most of us back in the good snow thump by game time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z GFS for Thursday is Ryan Howard in his final years with the Phillies. Swing and a miss. I think we've lost just about every model now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 12z GFS for Thursday is Ryan Howard in his final years with the Phillies. Swing and a miss. I think we've lost just about every model now. I'm so glad I booked a second trip to the Tug! It is a great stress reliever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, daxx said: I'm so glad I booked a second trip to the Tug! It is a great stress reliever. I'm really looking forward to Lake Placid! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 50 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 12z GFS for Thursday is Ryan Howard in his final years with the Phillies. Swing and a miss. I think we've lost just about every model now. I certainly don’t think this is a swing and a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, paweather said: I certainly don’t think this is a swing and a miss. That is 6z. 12z is basically zilch.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 I don't often disagree with CTP on being too high on snow amounts but that's where I'm at today. Just don't think the 3-6" area is going to cover a majority of the CWA and almost all of the guidance is way more limited. We need the heavier precip up front to get anywhere near those numbers, otherwise this is looking like a T-2" with a messy mix for most with a narrow 3-5" swath somewhere. There seems to be a split between the heavier WAA precip (what we need for the front end snow) staying south and the precip with dying parent low staying somewhat north. The only thing that really supports what CTP has out and has a better push of the WAA precip into the area so for today is the NAM/SREF. It looks like CTP is going fairly close with the SREF with a bit less than that in the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: I don't often disagree with CTP on being too high on snow amounts but that's where I'm at today. Just don't think the 3-6" area is going to cover a majority of the CWA and almost all of the guidance is way more limited. We need the heavier precip up front to get anywhere near those numbers, otherwise this is looking like a T-2" with a messy mix for most with a narrow 3-5" swath somewhere. There seems to be a split between the heavier WAA precip (what we need for the front end snow) staying south and the precip with dying parent low staying somewhat north. The only thing that really supports what CTP has out and has a better push of the WAA precip into the area so for today is the NAM/SREF. It looks like CTP is going fairly close with the SREF with a bit less than that in the southern tier. I was going to dust off the SREF and post it a little earlier! Maybe this old school model will pull out the win for this storm? Hopefully the short range models will lock back in to the juicer WAA front end look that they had showed previously over the last few days. We still have over 24 hours until the event begins, so there is time for another adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z euro is a big c pa hit between the 1st-3rd. Def a hint on the ensembles for a system in that time frame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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