MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 Boy it's quiet in here for what looked like a half decent 12z suite today. Models seem to be showing more muscle with the blocking and could be two different events as well. Starting to look like more of a tighter situation of getting somewhere in between too much block (suppressed) vs bringing the low up enough to force mixing before the blocking sends it east or even ESE. The most mixy of the bunch which was the GFS today still had a majority of the region having a sizable part of the storm as snow as the block forces the low under and changes the initial ice to snow as deeper cold gets drawn south. Then had a decent snow event regionwide with the following wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Just now, MAG5035 said: Boy it's quiet in here for what looked like a half decent 12z suite today. Models seem to be showing more muscle with the blocking and could be two different events as well. Starting to look like more of a tighter situation of getting somewhere in between too much block (suppressed) vs bringing the low up enough to force mixing before the blocking sends it east or even ESE. The most mixy of the bunch which was the GFS today still had a majority of the region having a sizable part of the storm as snow as the block forces the low under and changes the initial ice to snow as deeper cold gets drawn south. Then had a decent snow event regionwide with the following wave. Yes, Thanks I feel lonely in here LOL but the EURO run was good for next week. Still worried about suppression. But next week will be nothing like the last couple of weeks hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2021 Author Share Posted January 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, paweather said: I'll take it in my zone forecast even though it is 30% LOL. Wednesday Scattered snow showers, mainly before 8am. The snow could be heavy at times. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. CTP mentioned in their morning discussion today they were concerned about some scattered snow showers/squalls making it into the Sus Valley with a potent shortwave passage later tonight into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: CTP mentioned in their morning discussion today they were concerned about some scattered snow showers/squalls making it into the Sus Valley with a potent shortwave passage later tonight into tomorrow morning. Maybe get a whitening on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 A good signal: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 I'm just stopping in from the Pittsburgh thread, hopefully this works out for all. Based on the runs I've seen I'm worried western PA could be flooded with warmer air to change to ice or even plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2021 Share Posted January 19, 2021 Had a doc visit this am and on the way home we saw 4 snowflakes. Most exciting weather we've had since the 3rd week of December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 JB hyped up! Heads up. great pattern for weather nuts developing as west east moving storms next week focus fight of increasing cold to the north with pattern flip and warming southern US. Weatherbell.com. premium place to be to view a pattern of storms and rumors of storms. Will take your mind off politics ( gotta get the weather back to where it should be, front and center) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Boy it's quiet in here for what looked like a half decent 12z suite today. Models seem to be showing more muscle with the blocking and could be two different events as well. Starting to look like more of a tighter situation of getting somewhere in between too much block (suppressed) vs bringing the low up enough to force mixing before the blocking sends it east or even ESE. The most mixy of the bunch which was the GFS today still had a majority of the region having a sizable part of the storm as snow as the block forces the low under and changes the initial ice to snow as deeper cold gets drawn south. Then had a decent snow event regionwide with the following wave. The 12z models today were fantastic today with multiple snow chances next week. There could be the opportunity for the rare “snow on snow” next week. There was good consensus at 12z today among the Euro, GFS & Canadian. Here are their snow maps through next Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Yeah Mag the nooners were looking like a few chances at scoring with the block doing what it should and forcing systems under us. Need NAO to stay west based or systems might cut to friggin Idaho. This propensity for systems to try and cut just rattles the nerves. If we can see more consensus build in the next few runs I’m going to get excited. As crazy as it is the euro is far enough south that we could have suppression depression for the Mon Tues system. As a result The next 2 might have a chance to gain latitude and get us in the goods. If that’s not enough we all remember how excited we were a week ago for this week and the snow shredder NAO tore em up. As the MA forum often complains ...many ways to fail. I’m not Debbyin just trying to keep it real in here. I want blizz’s maps to work as much as anyone here....and my snowmobiles...want it more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The maps above are the 12z EPS through next Friday morning and then the combined amount through the end of the 15 day run. I like where we are sitting now in CTP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah Mag the nooners were looking like a few chances at scoring with the block doing what it should and forcing systems under us. Need NAO to stay west based or systems might cut to friggin Idaho. If we can see more consensus build in the next few runs I’m going to get excited. As crazy as it is the euro is far enough south that we could have suppression depression for the Mon Tues system. As a result The next 2 might have a chance to gain latitude and get us in the goods. If that’s not enough we all remember how excited we were a week ago for this week and the snow shredder NAO tore em up. As the MA forum often complains ...many ways to fail. I’m not Debbyin just trying to keep it real in here. I want blizz’s maps to work as much as anyone here....and my snowmobiles...want it more. Next week is our best chance since the December blockbuster snow event. We have multiple opportunities. I feel really good that we will score at least once. If all goes well, then we might get hit twice with snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I am gaining confidence for next week because all of the models today showed us getting some snow in the same time period. It is not the case of one random run by one model. Like @pasnownut said, a few more runs and I will be excited. Hopefully we get to the point where the main question is not if we get snow, but how much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Next week is our best chance since the December blockbuster snow event. We have multiple opportunities. I feel really good that we will score at least once. If all goes well, then we might get hit twice with snow! We’ve not pinned down a threat since mid Dec. and yeah I’m a bit snakebit and until todays nooners finally showing some continuity, the players have been on the field, but we’ve got to get some first downs, not fumbles if we’re going to score. Hoping tonight moves the chains forwards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I would sign up for the 0z Canadian for early next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 The 0z Euro was a heartbreaker tonight, skirting the southern tier with decent snow while having a major cutoff and a majority of the subforum area mostly dry (Mid-Atl storm). However Euro ensemble mean and control run looked much better for us and got most into some snows. Looked similar to the Canadian maybe a bit further north with extent. GFS and its ensembles are now on their own currently with cutting as far north as it does making for a mix. Meanwhile it looks like the Euro ensemble is solidifying a nice mean with a majority of members showing decent snows at most of our local stations now. Track is key, because if this does go south and not pull off what the GFS is trying to do, we're probably going to have to contend with a sharp cutoff on the northern extent of the precip somewhere. Harrisburg: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 This shortwave passage has been pretty decent overnight here, just measured 1.6" and still working some bands of snow showers. 31ºF 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: The 0z Euro was a heartbreaker tonight, skirting the southern tier with decent snow while having a major cutoff and a majority of the subforum area mostly dry (Mid-Atl storm). However Euro ensemble mean and control run looked much better for us and got most into some snows. Looked similar to the Canadian maybe a bit further north with extent. GFS and its ensembles are now on their own currently with cutting as far north as it does making for a mix. Meanwhile it looks like the Euro ensemble is solidifying a nice mean with a majority of members showing decent snows at most of our local stations now. Track is key, because if this does go south and not pull off what the GFS is trying to do, we're probably going to have to contend with a sharp cutoff on the northern extent of the precip somewhere. Harrisburg: It’s good to see the EPS continue to be on board for the storm chance next week. There are are several ensemble members that target CTP. I would sign up for the 0z Euro Control run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The 15 day 0z EPS snow map still looks good for chances beyond the early week threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: This shortwave passage has been pretty decent overnight here, just measured 1.6" and still working some bands of snow showers. 31ºF There was a dusting of snow overnight here in Marysville. It looks like another snow shower might make it here within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: This shortwave passage has been pretty decent overnight here, just measured 1.6" and still working some bands of snow showers. 31ºF I'm betting we see less than 10 flakes here in Lanco. Getting good at waiting. I'll tell ya, it has been niice for the northern locals, as theyve had snow OTG for a month now, and keep getting refreshers every coupld days. Thats what I was hoping would happen down here. All we've been able to do is retain snow piles :(. lol its all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Nice snow shower here this morning! Even had a bit of accumulation in the grass - call it the 3rd trace in 4 days! Also - other than the day of the snowstorm in mid December, have we had a single day of sub-freezing highs in the LSV? I know last year was mild, but it was VERY mild offset by a few periods of somewhat colder weather. We definitely had days where it stayed in the 20s. I can't recall a winter that has been so void of wintry temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Nice snow shower here this morning! Even had a bit of accumulation in the grass - call it the 3rd trace in 4 days! Also - other than the day of the snowstorm in mid December, have we had a single day of sub-freezing highs in the LSV? I know last year was mild, but it was VERY mild offset by a few periods of somewhat colder weather. We definitely had days where it stayed in the 20s. I can't recall a winter that has been so void of wintry temperatures. 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: 1997 . That's right. Wife and I had just moved to our new house and I was excited about taking our then 3 year old out to play in the snow. That winter was void of all things winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 It's windy as hell. That's all I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Too far away to see or hear it, but some of the squalls have some convection embedded in them... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Some good bursts this morning. It has been much better up here than in the lower 2/3 of the state as we have had snow in the air and temps in the low 30s most of the last week. Nothing big with another inch this AM that will be gone by afternoon but it is what it is. Poetic justice would be that the Southern crew cashes in over the next few weeks and I sit in the 20s smoking cirrus! Photo from this AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 5 hours ago, Greensnow said: Some good bursts this morning. It has been much better up here than in the lower 2/3 of the state as we have had snow in the air and temps in the low 30s most of the last week. Nothing big with another inch this AM that will be gone by afternoon but it is what it is. Poetic justice would be that the Southern crew cashes in over the next few weeks and I sit in the 20s smoking cirrus! Photo from this AM. Southwestern corner of the State is having a pretty damn good winter. 33" of snow already (more than Erie, which has to be incredibly rare) and likely more in the forecast, could surpass the seasonal average by the end of the month. We've had light accumulations for 4 straight days now, and a surprise 3.2" of the weekend, that was after the 2nd snowiest December of all time. So, the entire southern 2/3 of PA are not suffering by any means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Snow squall here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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