Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

[showmethesnow]

I mentioned yesterday that in my opinion, we wanted to see no involvement of NS energy into the setup for our potential storm Fri/Sat. I felt that the odds strongly favored that any involvement would result in a suppressed and progressive system. I think the overnight run of the Euro illustrates my concerns well.

 

Below I am going to use the run over run pressure differences to help give you a sense of what is occurring. Below we have the time period roughly 2 days before the storm is located in the east. As we see we have the NS energy running through central Canada and energy located over Oklahoma. These two packets of energy are the result of a split of energy we see prior in the PAC NW. If you look at the southern energy (over Oklahoma) I would like you to note that we are seeing higher pressures (yellow) overtop the upper low and lower pressures (blue) to the south. This tells us that we have seen a deeper drop of this upper low on the 00Z run compared to the 18Z run. I will follow up on these features a little later.

 

I want you to now look in the NE. What is occurring is that we are seeing a quicker relax of the suppression created by our 50/50 low. This is exactly what we want to see in front of the storm as this would allow the upper level energy for our forming storm to gain some northward latitude as low pressures desire to move poleward. This relax also helps to form all important ridging in front of the incoming system as well which would support northward gain as well. The stronger the low pressure, the stronger that desire.  In this case with the suppression breaking down the impediment to this northward push is being removed. But here comes NS energy #1 that is rotating around the 50/50 low. So as the NE suppression is breaking down, we now have this energy rotating down that is now reinforcing and pulling the suppression back westward. 

 

So let's look at we are now seeing roughly a day later. As we can see suppression is in place in the NE from the reinforcement from NS energy #1. This suppression has knocked down the decent ridging we had begun to see prior, as well as offset the desire of the upper low to push northward as well. So not only haven't we seen a northward push of the upper level low, which has become fairly strong, but in fact it is even farther south. But once again the suppression is breaking down so we should start to see a northward push. But enter NS energy #2 that is the result of a split in NW PAC energy days prior. This energy is now dropping into the NE as well.

 

 

Here we are a day later. Suppression is once again seen in the NE from NS energy #2. But now instead of being in front of the upper level energy for the storm it is now sitting overtop it. This suppression overtop is doing two things. Not only is it forcing this upper level energy south, it is also squashing it and weakening it. This is somewhat a critical stage in the evolution of the storm as around this time we should see the upper levels in the process of capturing and stacking to the surface low off the coast. This process would typically result in a somewhat rapidly deepening storm as well as a stronger desire for a northward push that would come along with that. But at this critical time we are now seeing the upper level support being severely weakened resulting in a weaker intensifying storm. And once again note that we are seeing higher heights (yellow) overtop this upper level low and lower to the south (blue) which signifies that out storm will be south from the prior run. I also want you to look at the flow running off the east coast, this argues the track of any storm will head out to sea as well. Nothing about this run gave me the warm and fuzzies for seeing our storm push northward beyond the southern mid-Atlantic. And all of this was created by NS interaction, twice.

 

 

Now I know some would like to see NS involvement (phasing) for various reasons. Temps, track, strengthening, ect. I admit, a well placed and timed phase could help in these aspects as well as potentially setup a homerun. But as I see it the odds of seeing what we need to occur are extremely long given what is currently projected. First off, we probably do not want to see any NS energy rotate around the 50/50 and down into the NE in front of the storm. All this will do is create suppression when we need that to relax. But even if we see this, it doesn't mean it is game over. Depending on timing placement, strength, etc.. this is an obstacle we can overcome. But what probably can not be overcome is if we see any involvement of NS energy #2 formed from the splitting in the energy in the PAC NW. Let me explain why.

 

If you see the circle I have drawn over the western lakes and westward this is where I consider we need to see any energy dropping for a potential phase to occur to be of benefit in the DC to New York corridor. Not only that but we need to see this drop exactly timed so as it is occurring when the southern energy has just passed underneath. This timing allows for the NS energy to dive down the backside of the lower latitude trough giving us a clean phase. Without this placement and timing we are more then likely SOL. Now despite the models now moving towards that NS energy moving through Canada instead of dropping into the central US, at one point it in prior runs they were suggesting it was possible. So for arguments sake let's just say it is still possible and we can get the drop we need. But this is the major hang up, timing. For any interaction from this NS energy we need to see it lag behind the southern energy so as any drop places it towards the backside of the trough. If this is in front or even directly overtop we will see suppressed and progressive storm. Given what is currently projected by the models I see no way that we can achieve the timing we need. From the get go (PAC NW split) the NS energy is out racing the southern energy as it is in a faster flow. Now sometimes this faster movement can be offset by energy traveling over longer stretches of real estate. But if you note there is not that great a distance to where the drop needs to occur so this more then likely would not factor in. The way I see it, the very best we could hope for in timing for the drop we need is to see that NS drop directly on top of the southern energy, which as mentioned before is a losing proposition. 

 

Now the models have moved towards taking that NS energy through Canada instead. So let's say we see follow up NS energy to replace that initial energy and despite the odds we see the drop and timing that we need to get a clean phase exactly where we need it. This is where that initial NS energy could screw us over as well. As I mentioned on the map above, this NS energy from the PAC split is now projected to drop down into the NE creating suppression at about the worst time. So we get the phase we need and yet it is now being squashed and suppressed as it moves eastward. And if we see that initial NS energy stay an intact entity as it moves across Canada the odds are pretty good that in fact it will be dropping down into the NE. The high latitude blocking argues for this.

 

All of the above is predicated on what the models have been and are projecting at this time. Who is to say that 24/48 hours from now they are representing something else where some sort of NS involvement is actually a preferred and viable option.  But at this time, I would just as soon have no NS involvement (especially that NS energy from the split) and roll with the general pattern outlined at this time. Otherwise I think the odds strongly favor we roll snake eyes for our storm chances through the DC/New York corridor.

 

 

 

[pawatch]

We got 4" of snow yesterday. First we had some freezing stuff so it stuck to everything and then we had 4" of big flaked snow.

Out to cleanup up with the tractor this morning. Will try and get a few other pictures this morning.

 

[pasnownut]

Parsing over the overnight runs, I see showme's write up and agress that the the NS is the problem, but i also have a problem w/ the evolution at 500 (GFS and Para), as you see NS energy retrograde/back in from south of northern quebec to NY/PA border.  loop 500's from 90-150 and you'll see my point.  I think that is the main fly in the snow ointment for this system, and I'd suggest watching that bundle of energy.  As the NAO is getting established (big red blob), the energy would likely round the edges of it, and not back into it.  Hope that makes sense.  If we clean that up, our storm has the chance to gain latitude and offer some of us a chance at snow.  I just dont see how we go from progressive to blocked up in a week.  Just my spitballing for the day.

 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Parsing over the overnight runs, I see showme's write up and agress that the the NS is the problem, but i also have a problem w/ the evolution at 500 (GFS and Para), as you see NS energy retrograde/back in from south of northern quebec to NY/PA border.  loop 500's from 90-150 and you'll see my point.  I think that is the main fly in the snow ointment for this system, and I'd suggest watching that bundle of energy.  As the NAO is getting established (big red blob), the energy would likely round the edges of it, and not back into it.  Hope that makes sense.  If we clean that up, our storm has the chance to gain latitude and offer some of us a chance at snow.  I just dont see how we go from progressive to blocked up in a week.  Just my spitballing for the day.

 

That energy you mention I did discuss. The first piece earlier is energy that has been rotating around the 50/50. The second piece that drops in to the NE is actually  the NS energy that we saw from the split in the PAC NW. It has traveled across Canada where it bumps into the blocking created by the -NAO/50/50 combo and been inserted into the flow around the 50/50.

[Greensnow]

Nice event up here. We ended up with 6.5" heavy wet snow. Ton of fog this morning.

[pasnownut]

16 minutes ago, Greensnow said:

Nice event up here. We ended up with 6.5" heavy wet snow. Ton of fog this morning.

congrats.  Daughter is at cabin in Tioga and suggests 2-4 up there.  She's not into the weather like i am, so be kind on the measurement 

[pawatch]

This snow as mentioned was a wet snow. We have never lost snow cover here from the big storm.

[paweather]

Not the best 12z suite of runs today. 

[2001kx]

19 hours ago, canderson said:

Best wishes to her. I have two friends in ICU with it currently. 

Thanks..Hoping we get rid of it quickly.

[Cashtown_Coop]

@MAG5035 good call on the upper end amounts for north central PA.  Looking over the pns, they’re some 6-7” amounts showing up.  Just need some snow down this way now. 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, paweather said:

Not the best 12z suite of runs today. 

The 12z GFS looked really good for next Monday’s coastal storm chance. I think that is definitely a storm to watch.

 

[MAG5035]

Friday's system is definitely shaping up to get blocked well under us. I thought a couple days ago this may eventually come back up enough to swipe at the DC region or perhaps even into the southern tier LSV. But now it's looking like interior southern VA is as close as it gets. Name of the game whenever you have a significant NAO/AO blocking regime, we're gonna lose some stuff underneath us. This system's coming at the point when teleconnection forecasts are generally at their most negative for the NAO in the forecast period (about a -3 on the WB forecasts). There's also isn't much western ridging to really amplify the system either at this point. The next system being progged out in that D6-7ish timeframe probably has a better shot but hasn't been really consistent. The overnight Euro for instance pretty much didn't even have it. That may end up being south too but I think it's a better chance for at least the Mid-Atlantic folks to get their first system, we'll see. 

Still looking at the bigger picture here, I said a couple previous pattern posts ago that I was eyeing the second half of Jan more than the first half and I would consider scoring a snow event in the next couple weeks to near mid month a win. And really it has been even if some didn't get snow out of Sunday's system. Take away the dominance of the blocking regime we have in the NAO/AO realm with the current look in the Pac with that +EPO and very low heights in the Gulf of Alaska and we probably have very little chance in what would be a much warmer regime. The blocking is suppressing the storm track and providing just enough marginal cold air (in what really isn't at all a cold pattern) with the Pacific air flooded CONUS to give us a chance with each system the next 6-10 days. I think the system after next has a better shot since it seems we tone down the NAO/AO a little bit and it's in the timeframe where the Pacific/western US side of the equation is starting to look more favorable. Models/ensembles have all been showing a big shift in the Pac, building ridging in the EPO realm up into AK where we have very low heights now while keeping a -NAO/AO. We need to inject some actual Canadian cold into this pattern and that's how it gets done. This is also a better alignment to involve the northern branch better with any potential phasing opportunities. 

Here was the overnight Euro ensemble for 12z this morning, D7 (near the timeframe of that second event) and D12. Look how much the Pac improves especially between the D7-D12 ones. The GEFS is doing the same general thing as well. Shaping up to be quite wintry after mid month if that comes to fruition. 

Current:

Day 7:

Day 12:

 

[pasnownut]

26 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Friday's system is definitely shaping up to get blocked well under us. I thought a couple days ago this may eventually come back up enough to swipe at the DC region or perhaps even into the southern tier LSV. But now it's looking like interior southern VA is as close as it gets. Name of the game whenever you have a significant NAO/AO blocking regime, we're gonna lose some stuff underneath us. This system's coming at the point when teleconnection forecasts are generally at their most negative for the NAO in the forecast period (about a -3 on the WB forecasts). There's also isn't much western ridging to really amplify the system either at this point. The next system being progged out in that D6-7ish timeframe probably has a better shot but hasn't been really consistent. The overnight Euro for instance pretty much didn't even have it. That may end up being south too but I think it's a better chance for at least the Mid-Atlantic folks to get their first system, we'll see. 

Still looking at the bigger picture here, I said a couple previous pattern posts ago that I was eyeing the second half of Jan more than the first half and I would consider scoring a snow event in the next couple weeks to near mid month a win. And really it has been even if some didn't get snow out of Sunday's system. Take away the dominance of the blocking regime we have in the NAO/AO realm with the current look in the Pac with that +EPO and very low heights in the Gulf of Alaska and we probably have very little chance in what would be a much warmer regime. The blocking is suppressing the storm track and providing just enough marginal cold air (in what really isn't at all a cold pattern) with the Pacific air flooded CONUS to give us a chance with each system the next 6-10 days. I think the system after next has a better shot since it seems we tone down the NAO/AO a little bit and it's in the timeframe where the Pacific/western US side of the equation is starting to look more favorable. Models/ensembles have all been showing a big shift in the Pac, building ridging in the EPO realm up into AK where we have very low heights now while keeping a -NAO/AO. We need to inject some actual Canadian cold into this pattern and that's how it gets done. This is also a better alignment to involve the northern branch better with any potential phasing opportunities. 

Here was the overnight Euro ensemble for 12z this morning, D7 (near the timeframe of that second event) and D12. Look how much the Pac improves especially between the D7-D12 ones. The GEFS is doing the same general thing as well. Shaping up to be quite wintry after mid month if that comes to fruition. 

 

 

Yeah I was hoping getting that NS retro look out of the way might help for this weekend, but your right, blocking looks to keep this one well under us (a bit to my surprise, but hey, that's the fun in this).  Still wouldn't surprise me to see DC and pts south get a little something this weekend. It has ticked back NW a bit, but were pretty far left of the goalposts for that one.  Onto the next. 

The d7 and d12 panels you posted are rather droolworthy and what snow weenies dream of.  If they verify, it will be fun times for sure, as its been a while since we've seen some clean A's come at us from the south.  That would surely open the door for them.  Lets just find something to jam into the door to keep it open as long as we can.

Glad you got into the goods this weekend.  Weather World said Sus. county got 14" this weekend.  Still waiting down here.

[showmethesnow]

As they say, 'It isn't over until the fat lady sings' and with 3 1/2+ days for the Jan8/9th storm that is where we stand. And In my opinion the 00Z Euro run threw up a solution that was 'oh so close' to a win. Potentially a big win. Especially for portions of the Mid-Atlantic (N Va, Md, Del, Jersey shores) and even possibly somewhat farther north up the coast through the 95 corridor.

What makes this possible is the differences we see with how it handles the NS energy dropping down from the 50/50 low. In blue below (00Z GFS run) I have what the models have generally been throwing up in recent runs. A strong piece of NS energy that is rotating down into the general upstate NY/NE region. Timing and placement of this feature is pretty much a no win situation as it drives the suppression too far south and west (blue dotted line) creating a storm that is suppressed and progressive in nature. But the overnight Euro has deviated from this general idea. It now shows a weaker feature (540 mb vs. 534 mb) which is displaced farther to the E/NE pulling the suppression farther E/NE (black dotted line). This changes the dynamics of what we see underneath with the upper levels and our forming storm.

As we can see we have the upper level support over the Tenn. valley with the surface low on the SC coast. In front of all of this we are seeing some decent ridging forming (red arrow). The key here is to see that ridging form and maintain. The GFS with its farther south and west suppression in the NE is suppressing and eventually breaking down that ridging. But with the Euro's farther E/NE depiction of this suppression what is occurring is that this ridging is stronger and maintaining. Now let's play this forward somewhat with the better ridging to see how this evolves.

 

Below we see the upper level support for our forming storm travels (black arrow) from the Tenn/Miss/Ala region directly eastward until it is approaching the coast and then shoots northward until it is situated around the mouth of the Chesp. Bay. This northward turn on the coast can mostly be attributed to the better ridging in front. Also note we have our surface low on the SC border which rides up the coast to around OBX (red arrow) and then moves out to sea. Again this northward pull of the coastal up the coast can mostly be attributed to the ridging. What we then see on this run is that the low stalls OTS and then waits for the upper level support  to come in for a capture (red circle). Our objective here is to see this capture actually happen just off the coast somewhere between OBX and the Del Marva. We see this and then we are talking. The upper level support has good energy associated with it, good spin and lift. Get this to stack with the surface low and we have the potential for an explosive storm (overnight GFS shows this with a 30 mb drop in 24 hrs). But on this run below, the capture happens OTS and the dynamics have played out somewhat so we do not see this explosiveness. So once again we see a losing solution. But this was a hair away from a very good solution. If you note the tracks of both the 500s and the surface low they run parallel to each other on the N Carolina coast. And If you run through the different levels from the 500s down to the surface through this run up the coast you see that they are all running pretty close to lock step with each except there is a tilt northwestward as you run from the surface up to 500's. In fact looking at things I am a little surprised we didn't see the upper levels actually capture the surface through this time.  But the fact that we didn't suggests the timing between these features was off a little. 

There is something else I would like to point out, something that could possible put into play those farther north in the coastal regions. Note the pinching of the isobars north of this system? What is occurring here is that the 500's are possibly making an attempt to close off this system and pull it out of the progressive west to east flow somewhat for a short period of time. I have to believe this is in response to the the different evolution of the NS energy that dropped in ahead of this system and is now located off the coast of NE. Instead of suppressing our storm, the timing and placement of this suppression is now in a position to possibly act as a road block to our developing storm to slow and/or stall it for a period of time. On this run we actually see the hints of this as the storm's progression around the Chesp. Bay gets bogged down somewhat. So what could it mean if the NS actually acts as a block and gets the upper levels to cut off and slow/stall for a period of time just off the coast? It means possibly, JACKPOT!!!! 

As I mentioned before, the fact we didn't see a capture of the low while it was moving up the coast could probably be attributed to the timing between the upper and surface levels being a little off. You slow or stall the evolution of the system and you create a larger window for a capture of this storm in a prime location for the Mid-Atlantic. And with the good energy we see associated with the upper levels the potential exists for an explosive storm as evidenced by the overnight GFS run. Throw in a dash of getting cut off from the flow along with a rapidly strengthening low and chances are we could see this pull northward somewhat putting NY or even Boston into play.

 

 

Do I expect the above to happen? Not necessarily. After all, it is just one run, of one model. But what I do take away from this is that it shows that there are possible avenues to winning here despite what the models may be suggesting at this time. After all, 'It isn't over until the Fat lady sings'.

[pasnownut]

@showmethesnow all i've been doing is paying attention to the 500 panels (NS and heights).  That NS energy did lift out a bit yesterday, and that coupled w/ slightly higher heights was what I was looking for to give this thing a chance.  IF thats got any merit, today into overnights needs to show it.  Also to Mags point, the block seems to be a bigger player than I thought it would be, so gut says any shifts would be subtle, but man I'm pulling for your post to verify.   Like you said, its really more of a MA deal, but as us SE Pa guys are back to normal w/ snow....we'll take what we can get. 

I'm staring at my pile of chips.....but knuckles hit the table for this round.  Lets see what the dealers say in a bit.  

[paweather]

Capital Weather Gang just posted this, not sure how much truth to it:

Polar vortex is splitting due to a sudden stratospheric warming event - The Washington Post

[pasnownut]

Ice skating anyone.  Posted just for fun as its been a while since colors like this have shown up in our region.

 

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Ice skating anyone.  Posted just for fun as its been a while since colors like this have shown up in our region.

 

Saw this. WOW....Cold is coming but with this pattern as is and the block so strong right now it is going to be cold and dry. Hope the block relaxes a bit or suppression in January will be the truth. 

[pasnownut]

and if the GFS only went out to 408 hours.......we'd be prepppin for snomagedon.  

 

 

fwiw in real news GEFS ticked NW again for weekend non event.  Not sure how much weight one puts in ens run at 78hrs but as a true weenie, one puts ones faith in the model that gives best snows right?  May just be noise...dunno?

[paweather]

Euro saves us. :-)

[paweather]

7 day countdown 

[Blizzard of 93]

5 hours ago, paweather said:

Euro saves us. :-)

What a great 12z Euro run!
It fits the pattern with the slight easing of the blocking to the north. The GFS had this storm yesterday. This should be a fun week of tracking. Our window of opportunity is just beginning to open...let the games begin!

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the next frame of the 12z Europe the chance early next week...crushed!

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Ok, how about the Kuchera ratio map just for fun...!

 

[Blizzard of 93]

@MAG5035

What do you think of our chances for the coastal potential early next week?

[MAG5035]

14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MAG5035

What do you think of our chances for the coastal potential early next week?

Like I said this morning, I think this stands a better chance than Friday's event which is now pretty solidly looking like a southern slider. And also as mentioned, models are wildly inconsistent with it. I had mentioned this morning about the 0z Euro basically having no system and you see what the 12z did. The overall pattern is better for the potential of the coastal storm, the big difference being the western ridge has really built in this timeframe along with some lessening of the dominance of the NAO block. That forces the northern branch to finally try to drop down in the east (dependent on how much amplification) and allow a potential phasing opportunity with the multitude of shortwaves running around. The Euro obviously succeeded at some phasing at 12z and I don't even think it was a complete one either. Can actually count up to 4 different shortwaves involved at one point in the early stages of this (135hr frame in this example), although ultimately it looked more like a typical phase once to the timeframe of initiating the coastal storm.

Now I'm not saying "OmG QuAdRuPlE PhAsE" here but it's a good example of the overall chaos and why we're seeing wild swings in model runs with a lot of imbedded shortwaves.  Basically it's the classic "storms and rumors of storms" setup you see a lot with established -NAO and some western ridging to go with an active pattern, which models usually have a lot of trouble with especially in the mid range. GFS seemed to keep the streams more separate but there's still a bunch of shortwaves in the flows with some different timing. Result is not much interaction and no coastal storm. Gonna be awhile til we see anything firm on where we go with this potential, but in the meantime we'll have to watch the next couple days if we get an overall storm signal out of this on a majority of guidance or if this fizzles completely. 

[showmethesnow]

Looking over the 00Z runs gave me a serious case of the 'Blahs' for our chances this Fri/Sat (outside of NC/southern, eastern VA). Yesterday I threw up a possible winning solution for the mid-Atlantic and potentially farther north up the shores that I thought the Euro was suggesting the possibility of. But that required a bunch of things going right, especially with timing, placement and strength of the NS energy rotating down into the NE during a critical period of time. Essentially a Hail Mary. But with only 72 hours or so until this storm is on the coast, time is essentially running out to see the changes we need. And though there are some positives here and there, they are no where near what we need to see. Let's face it, when the 12K NAM, which is amp happy at range, is probably one of the more progressive model runs then you know you are in serious trouble. 

4 or 5 days ago I started to bring up my concerns about what could possibly screw up up what I considered to be a pretty good setup for this time period. Though I have gone over it somewhat in previous posts I will do so once again in a little more detail for those that have neither seen these posts or are not clear on what is exactly going on.

Below we are sitting at zero hr at 500s. Our forming storm is over Colorado and we have a 50/50 sitting in place. If you follow the lower pressure anomalies (Blues) tailing off from our 50/50 we can get an idea of its influence (suppression). This suppression is now pulling NEward pretty much in lockstep with our forming storm at a somewhat ideal distance. Not a bad look as the setup creates the needed ridging in front of our developing storm. But if you look up into southern Canada we see a piece of NS energy. Let's follow that NS energy.

 

 

Almost a day later this energy is now sitting over the eastern Lakes. What it has done has dragged the suppression back westward. So where we were initially seeing good distance between the incoming storm and the suppression for developing the ridge, the distance has now shrunk. This is effectively beating down the once promising ridging. Though our chances for a storm that could possibly impact the mid-Atlantic (maybe somewhat north on the shores) took a serious hit just with this first piece of energy I do believe that we could have recovered with just a little bit of luck.

 

 

Enter NS energy #2. The potential nail in the coffin. If you look below we see that the suppression created by the first piece of energy is now withdrawing NEward so we are once again seeing heights build in front of our storm. But if you look into northern Canada we now see another piece of energy dropping down.

 

 

Almost a day later this energy is now sitting over the NE drawing the suppression, once again, back westward. At this point it is almost impossible to create the ridging we need to see as the distance between the suppression and the storm has been reduced significantly. And if you look at the ridging between it is basically getting squashed to death. So twice, when we needed to see a relax in the suppression for our storm chances, NS energy dropped down and reinforced that suppression. The first piece delivered the first blow that staggered us and the second delivered the knockout. Short of playing out a Rocky flick, where he gets up off the mat on the count of nine, I think the odds are extremely long that we can recover from this.

 

 

I will give it another 24 hours. If I don't see what I want to see I will probably call time of death. After all, there is no point in beating a dead horse.

 

***I thought I would bring up another point. When to use the model ops vs. the ensembles. I am a very strong believer that you need to ride with the ensembles until at least day 5, sometimes even into day 3 depending on how complex the setup is. But there is one situation where the ops can play an important role in, roughly day 5-7. When we are looking at troughing in the east with a somewhat active NS. If we continue to see suppression through this time period (roughly day 5 through 7) on the op runs and yet the ensembles are showing a setup that argues that a system should run northward that should be a red flag to you. The ops with their finer resolution are better able to pick up on these smaller scale features (NS energy), whereas these features may get lost on the ensembles through lower resolution and the smoothing by the means. So if the ops continue to show suppression run after run, counter to the ensembles, then alarms should be going off in your head.***

[pasnownut]

Well...for those that were looking for a little sumthin for the weekend....head to southern VA.  Just a blah weekend in store.  We are out of time for for any surprises that would be substantial enough to get much more than cirrus up here...and that's looking like a stretch.  Good news is that 1/12 system looks to still have a shot for us but 500s still have a progressive (southern) look to them (on op and ens guidance), thanks to Mr. NAO, so we've got some work to do to gin one up for that timeframe.   

Still beats the hell outta last year....especially for those that have snow on the ground, as it looks to be going nowhere for weeks to come.  Good for you. 

I'm still trackin, but the scent is weak right now....but listen for the bark, cause you may hear one in the coming days.  

[paweather]

20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Well...for those that were looking for a little sumthin for the weekend....head to southern VA.  Just a blah weekend in store.  We are out of time for for any surprises that would be substantial enough to get much more than cirrus up here...and that's looking like a stretch.  Good news is that 1/12 system looks to still have a shot for us but 500s still have a progressive (southern) look to them (on op and ens guidance), thanks to Mr. NAO, so we've got some work to do to gin one up for that timeframe.   

Still beats the hell outta last year....especially for those that have snow on the ground, as it looks to be going nowhere for weeks to come.  Good for you. 

I'm still trackin, but the scent is weak right now....but listen for the bark, cause you may hear one in the coming days.  

 last year we had no -NAO no blocking and now we have these in place this year and we are doomed again. Suppressed City 2021. I'm going to be the new JI on this forum.  

[pasnownut]

35 minutes ago, paweather said:

 last year we had no -NAO no blocking and now we have these in place this year and we are doomed again. Suppressed City 2021. I'm going to be the new JI on this forum.  

Please ........NO. 

There can be enough debby'in when we are gettin pooped on by the snow gods. 

And from what I can tell....you prob couldn't be like that if you tried...but please don't try to prove me wrong....lol

I'm just happy for it to be looking and feeling like winter (even if its only snowpiles down here - normalish for piedmont areas)