canderson Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 hours ago, Atomixwx said: A flood on Christmas would be the perfect cap to 2020. We need another earthquake before the year ends just to really finish this off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 This lead up to the Christmas holiday is definitely looking like it's going to deliver a hard lesson about most of this region when it comes to December snow. Something to the tune of the only guaranteed White Christmas is one where it's snowing on X-mas Day haha. I'm not sure that the portions of north-central PA that got the tremendous totals are going to see a complete pack loss but it's going to get a pretty big dent in it from the Christmas Eve system while the rest of us probably lose the majority of it. Just was hoping to avoid that long drawn out event with the strong cold front but we're going to get a pretty good dumping. Still a bit uncertain about any changeover, that seems the favor from the Laurels west in PA currently and it might be even further west than that with the possible snow swath. Models drawing that secondary low pressure wave that rides up the front through the middle of PA is a pretty good recipe for a slot and shutoff of most precip by the time the cold air's all the way in. At least this storm system will be a one day affair and send some pretty decent cold in for Christmas Day. Then heading towards New Year's we have a good pattern setting up with the nice -NAO block and overall high heights near the pole. So good chance we'll have one or two shots at an event between Christmas and New Years. Here's the possible problem I see, and we got a dose of this problem the last couple days. I'm kinda worried about the amount of cold air we might have in this said favorable pattern. A look at temp departures of our source region in Canada on the models shows a fair amount of above normal temps and not really any bouts of big time cold building with respect to average. Obviously, above normal in Canada is still "cold", but that air mass modifies as it gets to our neck of the woods. I'm hoping we don't waste a couple serviceable storms on account of not having good surface temps to work with (see the last day or so). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 53 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: This lead up to the Christmas holiday is definitely looking like it's going to deliver a hard lesson about most of this region when it comes to December snow. Something to the tune of the only guaranteed White Christmas is one where it's snowing on X-mas Day haha. I'm not sure that the portions of north-central PA that got the tremendous totals are going to see a complete pack loss but it's going to get a pretty big dent in it from the Christmas Eve system while the rest of us probably lose the majority of it. Just was hoping to avoid that long drawn out event with the strong cold front but we're going to get a pretty good dumping. Still a bit uncertain about any changeover, that seems the favor from the Laurels west in PA currently and it might be even further west than that with the possible snow swath. Models drawing that secondary low pressure wave that rides up the front through the middle of PA is a pretty good recipe for a slot and shutoff of most precip by the time the cold air's all the way in. At least this storm system will be a one day affair and send some pretty decent cold in for Christmas Day. Then heading towards New Year's we have a good pattern setting up with the nice -NAO block and overall high heights near the pole. So good chance we'll have one or two shots at an event between Christmas and New Years. Here's the possible problem I see, and we got a dose of this problem the last couple days. I'm kinda worried about the amount of cold air we might have in this said favorable pattern. A look at temp departures of our source region in Canada on the models shows a fair amount of above normal temps and not really any bouts of big time cold building with respect to average. Obviously, above normal in Canada is still "cold", but that air mass modifies as it gets to our neck of the woods. I'm hoping we don't waste a couple serviceable storms on account of not having good surface temps to work with (see the last day or so). Patience is the key... just like in early December when it looked like we would have chances, it just took a little time. It will be tough to not score a decent winter Event or two by the first week of January with the blocking pattern setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12k NAM puts everyone State College on eastward into wind gusts in the mid 60s. That’s with 1.5-2” rain Who needs power Christmas Day? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12k NAM puts everyone State College on eastward into wind gusts in the mid 60s. That’s with 1.5-2” rain Who needs power Christmas Day? That means you'll be mid 70's no problem. Is tomorrow too soon to start inquiring about your new roof. Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 12k NAM puts everyone State College on eastward into wind gusts in the mid 60s. That’s with 1.5-2” rain Who needs power Christmas Day? Santa's going to have one hell of a headwindSent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Road trip?Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 As far as our first system (Dec 28/29) after the Christmas day storm I think that is pretty much DOA for the majority of the mid-Atlantic outside of those possibly around the lakes and the extreme NE. The Christmas day storm would have been the setup for system #1 and we aren't seeing what we needed to see. A few days ago the models were portraying low pressures around the 50/50 region. We are no longer seeing that as we now have them located up around the Hudson Bay region. This difference is allowing height builds up and off the east coast in front of system #1 and also creating a weakness over top through the Lakes as well. This pretty much argues that this system will ride up into the Lakes. Now this first system was somewhat of a reach to see snow of any consequence into the 95 corridor/coastal plain in the mid-Atlantic up into the NE as portrayed on the models a few days ago. What was of more significance was that it laid the groundwork for system #2 around the New Year. But like dominoes falling, system #2 is now in serious trouble as well because of the difference in evolution of the Christmas day storm. This is the look we are now generally seeing on all three major Global ensembles (Euro, GFS, CMC) leading into system #2. All three globals show our Dec 28th system migrating into the general 50/50 region underneath blocking in the NAO region. This is pretty much what we want to see. But if you look in between that 50/50 and our New Year's day storm note that we are seeing strong height builds/ridging running up in the east from the deep south into Canada. Now typically I want to see height builds between a 50/50 and an incoming low. But I want to see them at the last second as the approaching low closes the distance to the 50/50. But we are not seeing this here as the height builds are occurring far too early because of the large separation between these two lows. And the reason for this large separation is two fold. The different evolution of the two previous systems has changed the timing and the South west energy is a little slower to eject. This really is not a good look as it wrecks temps (warming) and effects storm track (adjusting it north and west). Now I have not given up completely on system #2 for the 95/coastal plain as of yet, but it is looking rough as currently portrayed on the models. We need to some how delay/tamp down those east coast height builds whether through timing or other means. Some may ask why we are having such difficulties despite good blocking showing up in the N-Atlantic. That pretty much has to do with where that blocking is showing up. Typically (there are exceptions) for the coastal plains/95 portions of the east we want a western based -NAO that extends over top into Canada. But what we have been generally seeing has been an central and eastern based -NAO. There is hope though as there are signs we are actually moving more towards a western based NAO in the extended. Guess we shall see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Once the blocking gets established and migrates to a slightly more west based -NAO position, we should be back in the snow business. If the system towards New Year’s Eve can come out in pieces, it would allow it to be more progressive to perhaps slide under us. The blocking looks to be sustained in the long range and the AO & NAO are forecasted to remain negative over at least the next 2 weeks. If we remain patient, we should receive the snow goods eventually in this pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Once the blocking gets established and migrates to a slightly more west based -NAO position, we should be back in the snow business. If the system towards New Year’s Eve can come out in pieces, it would allow it to be more progressive to perhaps slide under us. The blocking looks to be sustained in the long range and the AO & NAO are forecasted to remain negative over at least the next 2 weeks. If we remain patient, we should receive the snow goods eventually in this pattern. I am still excited about what we are seeing despite what we may have with the next few systems. It looks as if the N-Atlantic is going to cooperate (blocking) for the most part for the foreseeable future. This portends well for seeing blocking a good portion of the winter. As long as we see that blocking, no matter where it is located, we will have our chances. As we are just entering prime climo this should hopefully afford us ample opportunities this winter. I really think this is a case of delayed but nor denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Seems like a good time to reminisce about favorite winter rainstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Anyone have the 6z Euro qpfSent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Seems like a good time to reminisce about favorite winter rainstorms.We do actually seem due for a top notch wind stormSent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I am still excited about what we are seeing despite what we may have with the next few systems. It looks as if the N-Atlantic is going to cooperate (blocking) for the most part for the foreseeable future. This portends well for seeing blocking a good portion of the winter. As long as we see that blocking, no matter where it is located, we will have our chances. As we are just entering prime climo this should hopefully afford us ample opportunities this winter. I really think this is a case of delayed but nor denied. Yeah I think the models are just starting to adjust to the blocking. Likely blowing the dust/rust off those parts as its been a while. hehe w/ nina fading and blocking looking to have some legs, at the minimum it should give some windows of opportunity, and is a welcome sight. So tired of the constant cutting that we've see for far too long. Looking forward to see vorts passing south of us, and seeing what happens from there. I'd be fine w/ some overrunning as well..so long as we are on the cold side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 31 minutes ago, kerplunk said: Seems like a good time to reminisce about favorite winter rainstorms. I've got nothin for ya......................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I've got nothin for ya......................................... Me either...HATE rain in the winter. Just figured someone on here might enjoy it for some perverted reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Recent snowmelt had the tree barks so saturated that the cold trunks were steaming in the bright sun this morning...a lot. Kinda cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 52 minutes ago, kerplunk said: Me either...HATE rain in the winter. Just figured someone on here might enjoy it for some perverted reason. That would be me...lol But...only when I'm back at work. This storm, almost every one of the models wants to give me about 3 inches of rain. That plus saturated ground from the melting snow pack plus any kind of high wind gusts (50mph+) gusts might spell a dark night tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 14 minutes ago, Voyager said: That would be me...lol But...only when I'm back at work. This storm, almost every one of the models wants to give me about 3 inches of rain. That plus saturated ground from the melting snow pack plus any kind of high wind gusts (50mph+) gusts might spell a dark night tomorrow. Haha...well, if we’re going to get a rainstorm, I say at least bring it—hard rain and high winds—although not wishing power outages for anyone. Especially for Christmas. Then again, might make it memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, kerplunk said: Me either...HATE rain in the winter. Just figured someone on here might enjoy it for some perverted reason. 54 minutes ago, Voyager said: That would be me...lol But...only when I'm back at work. This storm, almost every one of the models wants to give me about 3 inches of rain. That plus saturated ground from the melting snow pack plus any kind of high wind gusts (50mph+) gusts might spell a dark night tomorrow. Well... On nice days after winter storms, car washes tend to be packed. Packed to the point of me going home without the car wash taking place. Now...throw in a nice, 2", wind-driven rainstorm, and I'm giddy about saving the $ AND not having to leave my little oasis here in 62 degree comfort. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, kerplunk said: Haha...well, if we’re going to get a rainstorm, I say at least bring it—hard rain and high winds—although not wishing power outages for anyone. Especially for Christmas. Then again, might make it memorable. My buddies that are in power/internet service sector that are on call tomorrow do not agree, as its unlikely you have heavy rain, wind and no power/service issues. I don't envy them one bit, and I"m sure they'd like to stay home w/ their families. I hope its a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 6 hours ago, kerplunk said: Me either...HATE rain in the winter. Just figured someone on here might enjoy it for some perverted reason. Well it will bring the river up and make it good for fishing. River is still awful low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 49 minutes ago, pasnownut said: My buddies that are in power/internet service sector that are on call tomorrow do not agree, as its unlikely you have heavy rain, wind and no power/service issues. I don't envy them one bit, and I"m sure they'd like to stay home w/ their families. I hope its a dud. Good point. Wild weather is best left to non-holiday times. The end of my post was in jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, pawatch said: Well it will bring the river up and make it good for fishing. River is still awful low. Yes it is. And the River Forecast center has Wilkes Barre reaching moderate flood stage in a few days which is remarkable given how low it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I wish this area had good car washes. THEY ALL SUCK. The south/west have amazing touchless car washes - ones here use rollers and crap that can scratch your card and leave it streaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 37 minutes ago, kerplunk said: Good point. Wild weather is best left to non-holiday times. The end of my post was in jest. I know. I guess i just think of the damage/challenges and that takes away from the weather "fun" part for me (plus it could be my house that eats a tree). That would suck any day, but especially at this time of year. I'm all for quietly turning the friggin calendar and flippin 2020 the big bird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Off topic, but need to vent... Twenty years of Class A tractor trailer driving experience means nothing these days. Since I've been driving a motorcoach for the past 2 years and have been out of work due to Covid and my shoulder injury, I no longer have the required "recent" experience that the insurance companies require. It's starting to look like I'm fooked for tractor trailer work now. This sucks... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 32 minutes ago, Voyager said: Off topic, but need to vent... Twenty years of Class A tractor trailer driving experience means nothing these days. Since I've been driving a motorcoach for the past 2 years and have been out of work due to Covid and my shoulder injury, I no longer have the required "recent" experience that the insurance companies require. It's starting to look like I'm fooked for tractor trailer work now. This sucks... That really does suck. Sorry to hear about it. Hopefully you can find an insurance company that looks at individual situations instead of going by blanket company policies. Know that may be a long shot, but wishing you the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Flood warning hoisted for the main stem Susquehanna from Danville on north. CTP mentioned that they're waiting a bit longer to see if and when warnings will be needed for areas further south such as Harrisburg and Marietta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Yeah looks like no happy medium. Hope this isn't a repeat of 96. Not sure how much snow pack is in the mountains. Voyager can't believe only 2 years out, and your having trouble getting hired...Good Luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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