Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

[pasnownut]

Just spent the day snowblowing. Great event.  Glad this looks to stay around for a while and hope we can be tracking in the next few days. That Arctic front for Christmas looks to mean business. Hope we can use that for our next chance at padding totals. 
 

[Itstrainingtime]

My seasonal total through 3 events is 11.8" (.3", .7", and 10.8")

 

[canderson]

It’s fun to say you doubled the entire 2019-20 season in about 16 hours. 

[kerplunk]

14 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

At any rate on to the weather going forward. I'm not seeing too much system wise between now and Christmas, other than maybe some kind of weak system at the beginning of this coming week. Temps are meh and setup kind of favors western and Laurels if there's any notable precip. Models have been pretty solid on an arctic cold shot crashing through on or about X-mas morning. Difference between models are on handling the frontal system. GFS has generally had an anafrontal look to it, with a rain to snow scenario with the frontal boundary. The Euro has a pretty dry frontal passage ushering in the very cold air. 12z Canadian had something insane that's not likely to happen, or at least I'd hope not. I don't think either the GFS or Euro scenario will completely erase much, if any of the snowpack even in most of the Sus Valley. 

As such, chances of a white Christmas (inch or greater on ground X-mas morning) seem pretty good. Zonal flow regime predominant for the next week, which will keep temps pretty seasonable. Also helping will be the presence of our new snowpack, which aside from the wildly varying top end amounts managed to give all of us in here and our western PA friends 10"+ plus sleet to anchor the pack in the LSV where it would be more vulnerable to a WAA intrusion. But a couple days of 40 or so this time of the year isn't going to melt things a ton, especially where the sleet fell. The only day/period that may be notably warmer is around the 23rd with that approaching frontal system. That may have more luck advecting warm air on a SW flow on the other side of the Laurel's but may not do much in central/eastern. 

Pattern wise going to the start of the New Year,  it seems pretty workable. We neutralize the +EPO, which by the way was pretty positive for this storm that just happened. Build a bit of +PNA in the X-mas period with the cold shot. NAO/AO neutral to slightly negative. MJO staying in the circle on most guidance. I don't really see any kind of an overwhelming influence from any particular teleconnection. So if models latch on to any particular system, especially week between Xmas and New Years.. I'd like our chances of keeping the wintry going.  

Thanks for the write up MAG. Always learn a lot reading your comments.

Over the years have found Weather Underground to be an accurate source. Interestingly, they’re showing some nice snow around Christmas and following that front. They’ve been steadily increasingly the amounts and lowering the temps since this morning. Am figuring they must be seeing something. Your thoughts?

EDIT:  Sorry about the double image - can’t seem to remove it!

 

[medmax]

This is what I referred to. JMA and CMC want to hold back energy on this huge artic front. Maybe?

Miller type A?

[KPITSnow]

Posted this in the Pittsburgh thread, is anyone here having major issues with the new dualpol radar on the nws site. 

[MAG5035]

Plot twist, it's snowing again tonight here. 

[MAG5035]

42 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Posted this in the Pittsburgh thread, is anyone here having major issues with the new dualpol radar on the nws site. 

I'm trying it out a bit. Main thing I'm having trouble with is it loading the radar image really slow. 

[KPITSnow]

4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm trying it out a bit. Main thing I'm having trouble with is it loading the radar image really slow. 

Thought maybe that was just me. I am guessing they will get that fixed.

[anotherman]

Weenie card REVOKED!!


.

Seconded! I can never have enough snow.

[canderson]

I read somewhere the NWS is taking the forecast discussion off its site and only available to Mets. Is that true?  

 

 

 

 

[Heisy]

46 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm trying it out a bit. Main thing I'm having trouble with is it loading the radar image really slow. 

NWS just put up a new radar? 

[medmax]

I read somewhere the NWS is taking the forecast discussion off its site and only available to Mets. Is that true?  
 
 
 
 

That’s terrible! I love the forecast discussion

[Burghblizz]

26 minutes ago, canderson said:

I read somewhere the NWS is taking the forecast discussion off its site and only available to Mets. Is that true?  

 

 

 

 

Maybe they heard us complaining that PIT doesn’t get hyped enough.  So they figured “not for weenies”. There was a person we used to look out for, but doesn’t look like he/she still does it.

I hope they leave them up. I think NWS sites have great info, but they could use help with making the layout more intuitive (and standardized)

[showmethesnow]

Not sure about everyone else but what I am seeing on the models recently as we head into prime climo has me stoked for our snow chances from the mid-Atlantic up into the NE. Below is a 5 day mean from the Euro that shows the general pattern we are moving into and which looks to have some staying power. We are seeing a PV setting up over the northern Hudson Bay as well as over the Aleutian Islands. This configuration is forcing the pattern through the mid-latitudes as to we are seeing ridging in the west and troughing in the east.  The placement of these features are almost ideal as we see the ridging just west of Idaho and the troughing showing a neutral state through the Mississippi valley.. Around both these features we are also seeing a steady stream of energy rotating around them to either amplify on their own or to phase. Not to be outdone we are seeing the N Atlantic cooperate as we are seeing blocking setting up and maintaining. This is a money look to me. Now some might look at this and go, 'But it doesn't show any signs of a 50/50 low!' and they would be right. But I could almost guarantee that with what we are seeing here we would see lows running through and getting locked in for periods of time in the general 50/50 region with this setup. These lows would come from either the PV, which is well placed over the N Hudson Bay and aligned to send lows into that region or mid-latitude lows as they amplify in the east. As they say in the movie Field of Dreams, 'Build it and they will come', if you build that N-Atlantic blocking the 50/50 lows will come.

One thing that is not represented in the below map is what we are seeing with the southern stream. What we are seeing there is very promising as well. We are seeing a continuous bumping up and amplification of that from out of the gulf and up the East Coast throughout the period. This not only provides a possible moisture feed for any developing storms in the mid-latitudes but also puts on the table phasing as well as potential true blue Miller A's. 

If this is what the base state (after any relaxes) will look like for a majority of the winter I think that many in the East will be happy with the results.

 

Now I do not want to dismiss the coming 10 days as I think there are opportunities showing up and it will be a matter of timing and placement of the energy streaming through the CONUS, but beyond day 10 has my interest somewhat. I am seeing indications of the possibility of a big East coast storm beyond day 10. Though the hints are somewhat subtle on other maps, what we are seeing with the southern jet is somewhat noteworthy.  We see shortly after day 10, the southern stream setting up from the south and running up the east coast throughout the extended. Not only that it is a strong signal as well when you consider a couple of things. First off we are talking the extended, so features get muted and washed out as individual members on the ensembles go their own way the further out in time you go. And second we are talking the tropical jet which resides more towards the 300 mb domain then the 200 mb which is represented on this map. So the fact that the 200 mb's is picking up on it fairly strongly is probably suggestive of a very strong jet. So what does this all mean? It means that the jet is honking the possibility of a strong system running through the south and then turning up the coast.

 

 

[pasnownut]

@showmethesnow great writeup.  Just parsing over overnights, and while not perfect, there surely is s steady stream of opportunities thru year end (and beyond)  Will gladly take my chances w/ what the pattern is showing.  6z gins up a coastal that pops on the frontal boundary.  Not buying the evolution....but would take the result.  

[Cashtown_Coop]

11 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Plot twist, it's snowing again tonight here. 

 I ended up with 0.8" of snow.  nice surprise this morning.

[sauss06]

Man was i wrecked last night. I was basically outside on snow removal from 445am until 430PM. i ate, showered and crashed around 630, never woke up until 445 this morning. This was the biggest pain in the ass snow removal since that Valentines day bullshit awhile back. Feeling my age today

[pasnownut]

23 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Man was i wrecked last night. I was basically outside on snow removal from 445am until 430PM. i ate, showered and crashed around 630, never woke up until 445 this morning. This was the biggest pain in the ass snow removal since that Valentines day bullshit awhile back. Feeling my age today

i took the day "off" and snowblowed 6 properties....yeah I feel my age.  i couldnt imagine doing it all w/ a shovel.  Muscle relaxer knocked my arse out and i slept like a kitten.

 

[anotherman]

I shoveled all day and was exhausted last night.  Snow was like concrete.  I don't think it's going anywhere for awhile.

[pasnownut]

Just now, anotherman said:

I shoveled all day and was exhausted last night.  Snow was like concrete.  I don't think it's going anywhere for awhile.

staying power....we hope.  Decent shot at a white christmas down here.  If you look at 6z, verbatim we'd be eatin rd 2 or 3, or finishing off the last few dozen cookies Christmas night while watching the snow fall.  I'm down w/ that.

[paweather]

44 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

staying power....we hope.  Decent shot at a white christmas down here.  If you look at 6z, verbatim we'd be eatin rd 2 or 3, or finishing off the last few dozen cookies Christmas night while watching the snow fall.  I'm down w/ that.

There is shot for sure! I want energy to stay back on the artic front. 

[canderson]

I've never seen snow on Christmas day, I'd absolutely love it. We did get snow on Christmas Eve a few years back, iirc. 

[Itstrainingtime]

@showmethesnow Thank you for taking the time for preparing and sharing your thoughts. I LOVE to read your posts.  

Guys, yesterday I shoveled a total of 6 times. It took me 3 hours to get the job done, I thought it was best decision given my age and the weight of that stuff to shovel in 30 minute "shifts." I feel remarkably good this morning. I'm glad I had the time available to do it like that. 

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, paweather said:

There is shot for sure! I want energy to stay back on the artic front. 

While that's a way to get the goods, I'd say it needs to ride the boundary.  If it hangs back too far.....suppressed can also be the outcome as the frontal boundary is stout and can overwhelm the pattern pressing the boundary too far below us.

Failing is much easier than winning isnt it?  Always seems like 12 ways to fail, and 2 ways to win.  

[canderson]

Do any of you have the Ego battery-powered snowblower, by chance? I'm interested in it - and Ego makes good yard stuff and you can just use the same battery for every tool so it's a nice system. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

While that's a way to get the goods, I'd say it needs to ride the boundary.  If it hangs back too far.....suppressed can also be the outcome as the frontal boundary is stout and can overwhelm the pattern pressing the boundary too far below us.

Failing is much easier than winning isnt it?  Always seems like 12 ways to fail, and 2 ways to win.  

I agree! If the front is indeed as stout as depicted, anything that hangs back will result in congratulations Carolinas. 

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

While that's a way to get the goods, I'd say it needs to ride the boundary.  If it hangs back too far.....suppressed can also be the outcome as the frontal boundary is stout and can overwhelm the pattern pressing the boundary too far below us.

Failing is much easier than winning isnt it?  Always seems like 12 ways to fail, and 2 ways to win.  

Yes, I was thinking about that if it does stay back too much it might get suppressed. And yes I know for sure failing is much easier than winning if your talking about the Cowboys.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I agree! If the front is indeed as stout as depicted, anything that hangs back will result in congratulations Carolinas. 

If the trough axis were more SW/NE oriented, then I'd absolutely be rootin for Pa's scenario, but as depicted, the N/S orientation will really deepen the trough, favoring areas S of us.  

 

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yes, I was thinking about that if it does stay back too much it might get suppressed. And yes I know for sure failing is much easier than winning if your talking about the Cowboys.

NFC East = Central PA's winter of 2019-2020.