Itstrainingtime Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, JTrout said: Euro shellacs most everyone again. Just now, Superstorm said: Great Euro run . Steady as she goes... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z Euro gets a few sleet pellet up to Rt. 30 in York/Lancaster counties. Otherwise it's another solid run for everyone. Looks like a solid 8" - 12" event for many south of Rt. 22 (conservative thinking). I think I would prefer the risk of the higher qpf shown by the euro and cmc(around the lsv) then the GFS. The risk for sleet is around but the potential for the 18-24" is worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 hours ago, KPITSnow said: Anyone have the NAM weenie maps by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Looks like the Euro outputs 2.2" qpf for MDT, and it's all snow. Hold me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 can someone w/ access post euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, canderson said: Looks like the Euro outputs 2.2" qpf for MDT, and it's all snow. Hold me. depends where you want held after looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: can someone w/ access post euro? This was posted in the MA thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, paweather5 said: Rock steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 NAM is cruel. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: NAM is cruel. Damn. NAM seems to be incredibly aggressive with shoving plain rain up into even THV/LNS. Probably going to be some mixing issues along Mason/Dixon but I can't see how that verifies. It's the warmest of all solutions by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Lets lock this in.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 EPS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, 2001kx said: Lets lock this in.. Man oh man....thats a beaut! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 32 minutes ago, paweather5 said: Remarkably consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 RGEM steady as well. Just showing for concensus sake. Not for what will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 14, 2020 Author Share Posted December 14, 2020 The more elevation dependent HRRR ended up being correct over the other ambitious guidance this morning. Probably could call it a T here, but nothing measurable fell. Looks like it stuck from about 1800’ or so up. Looking NE Good thing we might just scrounge up a bit of snow Wednesday lol. Did anyone actually see much this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Can't wait to start talking about the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just curious - what type of storm system would it take to get the entire state into warning criteria snow? Is it even possible for the far eastern zones and the far west/Erie to get clobbered by the same event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Gosh, I posted about the HRRR and Mag posted on it about the same time. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The more elevation dependent HRRR ended up being correct over the other ambitious guidance this morning. Probably could call it a T here, but nothing measurable fell. Looks like it stuck from about 1800’ or so up. Looking NE Good thing we might just scrounge up a bit of snow Wednesday lol. Did anyone actually see much this morning? We may have had a slushy 1" here in Western Lanco. but due to warm surface.....its meelltiinnnnggggg. It came down nicely late morning through about 12:30. then tapered off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: The more elevation dependent HRRR ended up being correct over the other ambitious guidance this morning. Probably could call it a T here, but nothing measurable fell. Looks like it stuck from about 1800’ or so up. Looking NE Good thing we might just scrounge up a bit of snow Wednesday lol. Did anyone actually see much this morning? Nothing really stuck in Harrisburg proper, but friend up in Halifax had enough to cover his entire lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The more elevation dependent HRRR ended up being correct over the other ambitious guidance this morning. Probably could call it a T here, but nothing measurable fell. Looks like it stuck from about 1800’ or so up. Looking NE Good thing we might just scrounge up a bit of snow Wednesday lol. Did anyone actually see much this morning? Ground whiten. Marking down a T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Looks like the Euro outputs 2.2" qpf for MDT, and it's all snow. Hold me. For prospective, obviously a completely different storm, colder, higher ratios etc. I just heard somewhere(maybe posted here) that the Jan 2016 storm produced the 30" at MDT with less then 2" of QPf. Is that true? Anyone really good at remembering ratios from specific storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, JTrout said: For prospective, obviously a completely different storm, colder, higher ratios etc. I just heard somewhere(maybe posted here) that the Jan 2016 storm produced the 30" at MDT with less then 2" of QPf. Is that true? Anyone really good at remembering ratios from specific storms? if thats the case, you'd need to be at 18:1 kinda ratios. While not impossible, thats cold powder kinda stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, JTrout said: For prospective, obviously a completely different storm, colder, higher ratios etc. I just heard somewhere(maybe posted here) that the Jan 2016 storm produced the 30" at MDT with less then 2" of QPf. Is that true? Anyone really good at remembering ratios from specific storms? i keep records, not specific ratios. i had 33" with official at MDT was 30.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 @sauss06, stocked up on PBR yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, JTrout said: For prospective, obviously a completely different storm, colder, higher ratios etc. I just heard somewhere(maybe posted here) that the Jan 2016 storm produced the 30" at MDT with less then 2" of QPf. Is that true? Anyone really good at remembering ratios from specific storms? If I still worked there I could tell you. I actually was supposed to work that shift but called my boss to tell him that morning there was already 5" of snow on the ground lol. Next day couldnt go in either because they couldnt plow the streets. Took them 2 days to get the city back to normal, lancaster that is and they got more NW of us. I would be impressed if we see more than 12:1 during the height of the storm for areas around harrisburg. Most should see the average 10:1 and then maybe getting better as the colder air continues to filter in. I say maybe 14:1 on the outskirts to help with totals otherwise more than that is not impossible but probably unlikely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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