Voyager Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 SEPA and NNJ have been a qpf jackpot zone since Isaias back in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS keeps going with the thought of more confluence.I would even be concerned about further moves south and East.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: GFS keeps going with the thought of more confluence. I would even be concerned about further moves south and East. . Usually confluence is over modeled and slowly backs off closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Voyager said: SEPA and NNJ have been a qpf jackpot zone since Isaias back in the summer. I thought Tamaqua was the new precip magnet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I thought Tamaqua was the new precip magnet? It was, briefly, prior to the Hurricane...lol Actually, that day we got clobbered was an anomaly. Storms for some reason that day kept refiring just west of us and dumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Usually confluence is over modeled and slowly backs off closer to the event. My north trend 24 out. Everything going as planned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Lancaster crew will love the 12z GFS but the I-99 crew will not! Were used to it, and most of us live in South Central/SE so mainly just focus on that. I’ll take the 6 gladly, just hoping it stays there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I couldn’t wait for the good maps to update, but here is the 12z Canadian! CTP crushed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Meanwhile back to tomorrow... an early look at the 12z HRRR shows agreement with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Interesting how the GFS is shifting east and CMC, EURO are in their camp. Should be fun to watch the trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My north trend 24 out. Everything going as planned Agreed. For my back yard I like what the nooners show but don’t expect them to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: With the low tucked in to the DelMarVa like the GFS shows, I think the precip shield would push heavier snow further north & west in PA. CMC also has LP tucked a bit more and you can see the qpf response well west into central Pa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Agreed. For my back yard I like what the nooners show but don’t expect them to verify. Come on man, we need you fired up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 "Take the best of all models and call it a day! " - I know I heard this before. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I received a text from one of my CTP met friends that made the Feb 5-6 2010 comparison last eve. I ended up with 27” from that one. Hard to believe this is real. Haha well that's good to hear, I almost wanted to retroactively give myself a weenie tag on that post I made early this morning. There is definitely differences between this prospective event and that one and the excessive swath is not going to be placed the same (likely NW of the big cities) and probably not as widespread. I was commenting mainly on the u wind (easterly fetch) component. Big time u wind anomalies are a hallmark of a big Mid-Atl/NE snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Usually confluence is over modeled and slowly backs off closer to the event. Sometimes...certainly not the case in the winter of 2009-10 though. Ask NYC about confluence that winter. The storm on 2/5/2010 dropped over 2' in central Jersey and never made it to the metro area. It hit a brick wall and just stopped. They're still waiting for that storm to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sometimes...certainly not the case in the winter of 2009-10 though. Ask NYC about confluence that winter. The storm on 2/5/2010 dropped over 2' in central Jersey and never made it to the metro area. It hit a brick wall and just stopped. They're still waiting for that storm to arrive. Yes, but Still trended north at end. So did the dec 2009 storm. That’s what this storm reminds me of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Sometimes...certainly not the case in the winter of 2009-10 though. Ask NYC about confluence that winter. The storm on 2/5/2010 dropped over 2' in central Jersey and never made it to the metro area. It hit a brick wall and just stopped. They're still waiting for that storm to arrive. That was one of the most wicked cutoffs I’ve ever seen.Literally 2 feet to no snow in 25 miles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Agreed. For my back yard I like what the nooners show but don’t expect them to verify. 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Come on man, we need you fired up! I think Nut's approach is especially prudent at this point. High hopes, realistic expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Yes, but Still trended north at end. So did the dec 2009 storm. That’s what this storm reminds me of. Fair enough. I don't remember the 2/5 storm trending north. I vividly remember the storm in December coming north though - 48 hours out we were looking at 4" at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 hours ago, Jns2183 said: Mag, the only December storm I can think of even remotely comparable, and only in the state college & Somerset area is the Dec 11, 1992 Noreaster. State College had around 18" and Somerset 27" . Somehow IPT only recorded 7.5" on a little over an 1" of qpf, state college was over 2" qpf and South. Mountain had 15" on close to 5" of qpf. Regardless, if MDT somehow walked away with 24" of snow, they would break the all time record for snow for the entire month of December and I believe almost double the previous December storm record. That kind of anomaly is hard to even fathom. I remember us waiting for MDT to officially call the jan 2016 storm the GOAT that morning during the tail end of that storm. Imagine beating the December storm record just as the Deform band started. Over the last 20 year's we have been spoiled for sure with big storms, especially in Jan to March peak winter. These amounts are insane for peak winter. Below are the max daily snow amounts and year for MDT by month, then mean amount and (ratio). Dec. 10.1" 1963. 5.8" (1.74) Jan. 26.4" 2016. 9.2" (2.86) Feb. 24" 1983. 9.6" (2.5) March 20.3" 1993. 6.1" (3.33) One of these is not like the others. If this storms dumps between 14..5" and 19.5" during one calendar day at MDT then that changes. It should also highlight just how rare an event this has the potential to be. Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk Yup, that December 92 nor'easter pretty much started that portion of the mid-90s where the central counties were the place to be for these big coastals (Dec '92, Mar '93, Mar '94, Jan '96). With December 11-12. 1992, the crazy part about UNV's 18" was the fact that precip turned to rain in the middle part of the storm there (LSV had some decent snow but a lot of rain), while SW of there in AOO and into the Laurels stayed all snow and there was a 36" total in Somerset County. We definitely will have a better airmass in place for this one, however the 500mb feature was much more pronounced on Dec '92 (closed 500mb low). There's a whole bunch of youtube videos of TWC during that storm that I found last winter. Jeff Morrow reporting in Breezewood getting blasted with snow. These videos def helped last winter lol. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-ueyO15a2o&t=31s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Fair enough. I don't remember the 2/5 storm trending north. I vividly remember the storm in December coming north though - 48 hours out we were looking at 4" at most. 2/5 definitely did, I still remember the CTP disco at about this range saying something like "maybe 3 or 4 inches for the counties along the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ukie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Juicy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ukie Snow totals: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 12z GEFS 24 hr 6"+ snow probs vs the 6z. Edit to add 12z vs 0z Canadian ensemble comparison for 24hr 6"+ snowfall probs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yup, that December 92 nor'easter pretty much started that portion of the mid-90s where the central counties were the place to be for these big coastals (Dec '92, Mar '93, Mar '94, Jan '96). With December 11-12. 1992, the crazy part about UNV's 18" was the fact that precip turned to rain in the middle part of the storm there (LSV had some decent snow but a lot of rain), while SW of there in AOO and into the Laurels stayed all snow and there was a 36" total in Somerset County. We definitely will have a better airmass in place for this one, however the 500mb feature was much more pronounced on Dec '92 (closed 500mb low). There's a whole bunch of youtube videos of TWC during that storm that I found last winter. Jeff Morrow reporting in Breezewood getting blasted with snow. These videos def helped last winter lol. I don't know what happened around Shippensburg and South Mountain that storm but they both had close to 5" apt while Harrisburg area had 2"-3"qpfSent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Canadian---10:1 first map, Kuchera second map. It gives all of us less than 1" with tomorrow, so the storm total is pretty much all from Wednesday-Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: 2/5 definitely did, I still remember the CTP disco at about this range saying something like "maybe 3 or 4 inches for the counties along the turnpike. February of 03 President’s Day storm was another north trender for CTP. I think they were calling for 6 to 10 but then Harrisburg ended up around 20 inches total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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