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Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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showmethesnow
showmethesnow

Not sure about everyone else but what I am seeing on the models recently as we head into prime climo has me stoked for our snow chances from the mid-Atlantic up into the NE. Below is a 5 day mean from

AllWeather
AllWeather

This will be my first winter storm in 8 years where I don’t have to worry about a “viewing area” forecast. I get to enjoy the storm IMBY with my family.  

Cashtown_Coop
Cashtown_Coop

Hey everyone, quick idea.   If things keep looking like snow, I think it would be fun to have a snow contest for the area.  Pick something like 5 sites and see who can guess the total snowfall for tho

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted

About as loud as CTP can bark ...

  

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Certainly a stormier pattern shaping up with significant
energy embedded in the upper flow, especially in the southern
stream, which usually makes for exciting weather at this time of
year around these parts.

Latest medium range guidance shows a warmer solutions for
Monday precipitation event. This is primarily noticeable over
the Lower Susquehanna Valley where event snow totals now are
under an inch at best. Collaboratively lowered snow fall
accums, again most significantly over the Lower Susq. Remainder
of period looks similar to pvs runs.

Pvs...

. Things look even more interesting for the mid-
week storm. Many members and deterministic models are generating
large QPFs and the temps look to be entirely cold through the
(potential) event. Still too early to get all too excited, but
this has the look of the first significant snow of the season.
The possibility of advy and warning amounts of snow are
climbing. Will continue to mention this in the HWO, and speak a
little louder via other avenues - to bring out our increase in
confidence. Timing and mass fields/QPF have been in fairly good
agreement to this point in time. Still.......it is a day-5
potential event.
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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

There was a bit of a freak out in the mid atl forum over the EPS looking a bit “inside” at 108 hrs. This really only matters to the SE zones in here but for them I’ll post what I said in the mid atl thread. 
 

Since the Eps is based on the op and typically supports it it makes sense it would have the same bias but I can’t say for sure.  But Imo the reaction to the 12z Eps is overblown.  It’s not as bad as it looks.  It’s sort of an illusion imo.  There are several factors that make that 108 hr panel look awful.  There was always a camp in the EPS going back 48 hours that has a too far inside track v the cluster of tracks that would support a decent amount of frozen.  
 

From my analysis I don’t think the % in each cluster changed that much. Several factors made that 108 panel look worse. First a few if the inside runners are way inside this run. But it matters not to us if the track is up the fall line vs up the bay. Both are rain. Matters for Harrisburg I guess.  The inside runners are deeper too skewing the mean.

Second the timing tightened up.  There is way less timing differences on the 12z v 0z so now there is one panel where you can see all the inside runners at one time.  
 

Third the timing changed by 3 hours so now that 108 panel catches the storm at its closest inland pass in VA where before most of the lows we’re still down in NC then off the MD coast.  We didn’t have one panel on the EPS that caught all the lows at their ugliest look before.

By my count if you look at all the panels and estimate (hard to do with some but this is close) there were 21 members out of 50 that were inside of a “frozen supporting track” at 0z. That doesn’t mean the others were all huge hits but tracks that should support a decent bit of snow into 95.  At 12z I count 23 inside runners.  So maybe 2 more in the camp we don’t want.  But that seems like noise to me.  

I’m not saying an inside runner isn’t a legit fear here.  Even up here that’s my fear. I don’t see any way this gets suppressed south. The trough goes neutral and starts to lift pretty far west. The whole flow is amplified. The block/50-50 are anchored a little north of the examples where we see something squashed to our south. Imo this is going to be a hit or too far north and rain. I feel pretty good about this ATT but still a long ways to go.  But you know me if there is an “oh no it’s all falling apart” moment I will be the first on here warning about it. The 12z EPS wasn’t that imo. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was a bit of a freak out in the mid atl forum over the EPS looking a bit “inside” at 108 hrs. This really only matters to the SE zones in here but for them I’ll post what I said in the mid atl thread. 
 

Since the Eps is based on the op and typically supports it it makes sense it would have the same bias but I can’t say for sure.  But Imo the reaction to the 12z Eps is overblown.  It’s not as bad as it looks.  It’s sort of an illusion imo.  There are several factors that make that 108 hr panel look awful.  There was always a camp in the EPS going back 48 hours that has a too far inside track v the cluster of tracks that would support a decent amount of frozen.  
 

From my analysis I don’t think the % in each cluster changed that much. Several factors made that 108 panel look worse. First a few if the inside runners are way inside this run. But it matters not to us if the track is up the fall line vs up the bay. Both are rain. Matters for Harrisburg I guess.  The inside runners are deeper too skewing the mean.

Second the timing tightened up.  There is way less timing differences on the 12z v 0z so now there is one panel where you can see all the inside runners at one time.  
 

Third the timing changed by 3 hours so now that 108 panel catches the storm at its closest inland pass in VA where before most of the lows we’re still down in NC then off the MD coast.  We didn’t have one panel on the EPS that caught all the lows at their ugliest look before.

By my count if you look at all the panels and estimate (hard to do with some but this is close) there were 21 members out of 50 that were inside of a “frozen supporting track” at 0z. That doesn’t mean the others were all huge hits but tracks that should support a decent bit of snow into 95.  At 12z I count 23 inside runners.  So maybe 2 more in the camp we don’t want.  But that seems like noise to me.  

I’m not saying an inside runner isn’t a legit fear here.  Even up here that’s my fear. I don’t see any way this gets suppressed south. The trough goes neutral and starts to lift pretty far west. The whole flow is amplified. The block/50-50 are anchored a little north of the examples where we see something squashed to our south. Imo this is going to be a hit or too far north and rain. I feel pretty good about this ATT but still a long ways to go.  But you know me if there is an “oh no it’s all falling apart” moment I will be the first on here warning about it. The 12z EPS wasn’t that imo. 

Yes. I'm almost convinced that I have mixing issues here in Lanco. I'm much more worried about an inland vs. suppressed scenario. As @MillvilleWx said in your thread, you have to know your climate with large east coast storms. Rarely do I not taint, especially this early in the season with sea temps above normal. Just the way we role in the Lancaster area. 

Gut says that Franklin county NE to perhaps the Coal Region jackpots in our area. 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes. I'm almost convinced that I have mixing issues here in Lanco. I'm much more worried about an inland vs. suppressed scenario. As @MillvilleWx said in your thread, you have to know your climate with large east coast storms. Rarely do I not taint, especially this early in the season with sea temps above normal. Just the way we role in the Lancaster area. 

Gut says that Franklin county NE to perhaps the Coal Region jackpots in our area. 

So, you are saying that the I-81 corridor jackpots! I won’t have a problem with that!

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Gosnow

Gosnow

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, paweather said:

I’m not sure what you mean? 

More taint for us SE crew. Still nice hit but the lower snow totals are creeping towards us. I hope psuhoffman is right and this is just model mirage. Per the 18z gfs the low is going over nj now.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, paweather said:

I’m not sure what you mean? 

 

1 minute ago, canderson said:

I assume you meant to quote Monday’s storm. CTP punted on it earlier today (too warm down here),

No, I meant Wednesday's storm. For my area, this was a step back. Not totally unexpected, but there's far more mixing for our area. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Gosnow said:

More taint for us SE crew. Still nice hit but the lower snow totals are creeping towards us. I hope psuhoffman is right and this is just model mirage. Per the 18z gfs the low is going over nj now.

Exactly, and on all accounts. Those from Harrisburg north and west didn't notice this, but for us...it's obvious.

Equally obvious, it's 1 run from 1 model, so there's that. But the EPS was moving north as well. 

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paweather

paweather

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

If we even just exceed 6 inches of snow with this storm we will have beat all of last season as of December 17th in the LSV!

If this stays on course we will exceed that and then some. But I won’t be disappointed if we get say 8” and it turns to frozen. Heck, I don’t think I would be not disappointed if we got 4” better than last year LOL. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Exactly, and on all accounts. Those from Harrisburg north and west didn't notice this, but for us...it's obvious.

Equally obvious, it's 1 run from 1 model, so there's that. But the EPS was moving north as well. 

NAM ticked SE for Monday. Like I said several days ago. Give us a few inches Monday and then I expect to watch the snowfall pile up to our NW like normal on Thursday. Well take some snow and then taint. I fully expect this. 

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