canderson Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Talk about a positive mood change - ground and roads are covered here. It's not much, but in these days...man does it look and feel good outside right now. Got several tenths of an inch with -SN still flying. Wow. It snowed but only for a few minutes and def didn't stick to any surface. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 whtening of the ground for a little here in Etown. I'm gonna get the first weenie tag of the year. Really dont give a sh!t right now. GO LOOK AT THE CMC for late next week....hint......double barrel LP both stay under us and just shellack the beegeezus out of us. Verbatim, it's likely the SNOWstorm of the season if it were to happen as depicted (0-.5% likelyhood IMO). It really is just a beaut...even if only digital snow, yes, there is a CHANCE!. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 15 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Welcome back! I like your Winter thoughts as well! Yes welcome back! It was great to see wintry precip this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 30 minutes ago, canderson said: Wow. It snowed but only for a few minutes and def didn't stick to any surface. Congrats! It's mostly gone now, but watching the radar loop I was under some of the heavier returns. My daughter works just outside of Lancaster and from the pictures she sent me, they might have had a little more than what I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: whtening of the ground for a little here in Etown. I'm gonna get the first weenie tag of the year. Really dont give a sh!t right now. GO LOOK AT THE CMC for late next week....hint......double barrel LP both stay under us and just shellack the beegeezus out of us. Verbatim, it's likely the SNOWstorm of the season if it were to happen as depicted (0-.5% likelyhood IMO). It really is just a beaut...even if only digital snow, yes, there is a CHANCE!. Enjoy. Yep, right with you. Hey, you have to play to win. Last year we didn't have enough players to even form a team. This year, it's whether or not we can get our guys to come together and get us a couple of wins. Maybe we're the WFT going up against Pittsburgh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: whtening of the ground for a little here in Etown. I'm gonna get the first weenie tag of the year. Really dont give a sh!t right now. GO LOOK AT THE CMC for late next week....hint......double barrel LP both stay under us and just shellack the beegeezus out of us. Verbatim, it's likely the SNOWstorm of the season if it were to happen as depicted (0-.5% likelyhood IMO). It really is just a beaut...even if only digital snow, yes, there is a CHANCE!. Enjoy. Your not kidding! This is the second low after we get nailed from the first one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 And then you have the GFS that is slower and warmer. But plenty of time left only 100 more model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yep, right with you. Hey, you have to play to win. Last year we didn't have enough players to even form a team. This year, it's whether or not we can get our guys to come together and get us a couple of wins. Maybe we're the WFT going up against Pittsburgh... That's the underlying point i was driving at. At LEAST there's stuff to look at, and not just massive red blobs parked east of the Miss. for weeks on end. I'll enjoy the ride cause at least were on the ride, and not standing in a long ass line waiting to get on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW.2002 to 2007 seem like the dark agesSent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 22 hours ago, canderson said: Heads up: stuff closing down statewide by this weekend. Can’t share more. Now that Wolf has tested positive, I can certainly see an unprecedented shutdown coming. Christmas and New Years will be ruined. Enjoy your civil liberties while you still can because I don't think they're going to last much longer. As for the weather, we got about an inch of snow today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 https://www.pennlive.com/life/2020/12/pennsylvanians-could-see-northern-lights.htmlNorthern lights anyone?Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 7 hours ago, paweather said: Your not kidding! This is the second low after we get nailed from the first one: Here is another look at that amazing 12z Canadian run from earlier today.... All I want for Christmas is this storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 7 hours ago, pasnownut said: whtening of the ground for a little here in Etown. I'm gonna get the first weenie tag of the year. Really dont give a sh!t right now. GO LOOK AT THE CMC for late next week....hint......double barrel LP both stay under us and just shellack the beegeezus out of us. Verbatim, it's likely the SNOWstorm of the season if it were to happen as depicted (0-.5% likelyhood IMO). It really is just a beaut...even if only digital snow, yes, there is a CHANCE!. Enjoy. Congrats on the coating of snow! Canadian run.... yes.... please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 8 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Talk about a positive mood change - ground and roads are covered here. It's not much, but in these days...man does it look and feel good outside right now. Got several tenths of an inch with -SN still flying. Congrats on the heavy coating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 7 hours ago, pasnownut said: That's the underlying point i was driving at. At LEAST there's stuff to look at, and not just massive red blobs parked east of the Miss. for weeks on end. I'll enjoy the ride cause at least were on the ride, and not standing in a long ass line waiting to get on. Yes, with the -NAO & -AO, there should be chances for snow next week and beyond. The ensembles are responding to the developing pattern. The EPS & CMC ensembles are really starting to respond. These snow maps are just indicators that we are heading in the right direction and there should be chances this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 3 hours ago, Voyager said: Now that Wolf has tested positive, I can certainly see an unprecedented shutdown coming. Christmas and New Years will be ruined. Enjoy your civil liberties while you still can because I don't think they're going to last much longer. As for the weather, we got about an inch of snow today... I doubt there will be the kind of complete and thorough shut down/stay at home we had back in the spring. I think new restrictions will target stricter limits on gatherings (or no gatherings outside of household), probably go back to takeout only for bars/restaurants, and perhaps reinstate some sort of capacity limits on grocery stores, bigger retail, etc. I'm speculating of course on those specific things, but Wolf had just said on Monday "there were no plans to go back to return to the red-yellow-green designations that were so controversial in the spring." I'm not sure how much of a difference that would make anyways really when a lot of spread could be being driven from private gatherings/parties. It really boils down to people themselves actually being reasonable and taking at least some degree of caution/responsibility. This part of PA is in rough shape. The next county over in Cambria, which includes Johnstown, reported Monday the 2nd highest positivity rate of any county over 100k people (per capita) in the COUNTRY over the last two weeks and over 100 deaths since the beginning of November. https://wjactv.com/news/coronavirus/grim-situation-in-cambria-county-as-covid-cases-explode-to-second-highest-rate-in-nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Right, new restrictions shouldn’t make a big difference to anyone who is trying to avoid a virus. No more indoor dining and all but they’re not shutting businesses down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just took a quick look at the national radar - I'd say 99% of the country is dry. Pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 10, 2020 Author Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, with the -NAO & -AO, there should be chances for snow next week and beyond. The ensembles are responding to the developing pattern. The EPS & CMC ensembles are really starting to respond. These snow maps are just indicators that we are heading in the right direction and there should be chances this month. Models are all over the place with features in this prospective period later next week, which is to be expected to at least some degree with the general split flow regime we're being presented. I think the models each showed their own individual way this could evolve, and everything's on the table here including the Canadian's big ticket item. They're pretty solid on the weekend system that cuts, which doesn't look too prolific with rain. After the frontal passage and reestablishing of seasonal air early next week it's a free for all. Euro has been occasionally toying around with a followup wave pretty close behind the weekend system. GFS/Canadian haven't been all that interested in that. They've been developing another wave late next week here and there with the Canadian obviously having the big one today. Euro hasn't shown much with that timeframe, actually seeming more northern branch dominant on today's 12z run. GFS has seemed to have had more cold air issues when it does present a storm solution with really not engaging the northern branch south enough. Kind of a worry of mine personally given that the forecast +EPO was seemingly the one detrimental teleconnection that could screw a storm up that does materialize. Suppression is also a concern with the right (wrong) timing of features given the -NAO forecast. I'd say I'm reasonably confident something eventually materializes at some point the next couple weeks with the said forecast -NAO/AO regime and overall lots of high heights near the pole, which might be just enough to overcome the +EPO and run a system under us or at least present us with some frozen precip in an imperfect storm scenario. It's definitely a "must score" situation as any longer term sustained -NAO/-AO is certainly not a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 The 0z Euro delivered a classic east coast snowstorm for the middle of next week. Great track and low position off of the DelMarVa and beautiful High over Quebec. This should be a fun week of tracking, buckle up everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 I didn't have a chance to see the Euro's progression with the storm Blizz is talking about, but that snow map has Miller B written all over it... Also, good luck making a forecast if you're in central New Jersey. As depicted, that's going from essentially nothing to a 1' plus in about 25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 6z GFS WOW a bit more inland, Congrats C Pa - Not here. But lots of tracking for sure over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I didn't have a chance to see the Euro's progression with the storm Blizz is talking about, but that snow map has Miller B written all over it... Also, good luck making a forecast if you're in central New Jersey. As depicted, that's going from essentially nothing to a 1' plus in about 25 miles. So, basically Lancaster County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 12z GFS Hello! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, canderson said: So, basically Lancaster County? Very true! I took a quick glance at that snow map and the razor sharp edge in Jersey jumped out at me - didn't even see the gradient across Lanco. I only trust a Miller B when the snow is falling and piling up. I refuse to buy into anything before that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Very true! I took a quick glance at that snow map and the razor sharp edge in Jersey jumped out at me - didn't even see the gradient across Lanco. I only trust a Miller B when the snow is falling and piling up. I refuse to buy into anything before that point. I don't think the 12z GFS is a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, paweather said: I don't think the 12z GFS is a Miller B. Agree, and good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, paweather said: I don't think the 12z GFS is a Miller B. verbatim, its an early early transfer (which is what we'd want) as antecedent cold isnt too strong. As depicted, its a best case scenario, as it wouldnt warm the thermal fields too much, so we' basically have a cleaner look to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Agree, and good. Yep, let's hope this trends good on the EURO. Where do you find good EURO maps? I use Pivot weather but would prefer something like the GFS type maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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