MAG5035 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Kicking this off with some wintry obs. 30ºF with steady light snow and about 0.5-1" has fallen since late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 45 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Kicking this off with some wintry obs. 30ºF with steady light snow and about 0.5-1" has fallen since late this afternoon. Congrats! Thanks for starting the Winter thread. What are your thoughts on the chances for the potential storm this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 45 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Congrats! Thanks for starting the Winter thread. What are your thoughts on the chances for the potential storm this weekend? There's been a lot of model uncertainly with this potential storm as I mentioned on my post yesterday. It does appear that the models have consolidated more today on having a more impactful system for the Mid-Atlantic into potentially the NE. Appears the issue is going to be temps and possibly a bit of an inside low track. This brings back my other bigger post last week when this current storm was looking to cut off over a few days depressing the storm track and keeping cold in longer. What ended up happening is a more progressive outcome, as this storm will lift out more quickly and we moderate and build some heights toward the end of the week. Now temps still look to be seasonal, but that may not be enough for the Sus Valley even with the type of solution the 18z Euro put out this evening. Even though we're into early December, it's still early in the winter season and we need the more anomalous cold air mass in place. While the 0z GFS looked a bit too high and inside, I do think the 18z Euro type solution (also 0z Canadian) eventually would present more of a wintry threat for northern and potentially interior/higher elevation portions of central PA on models when the short range high resolution models get in range. And even there we could be talking a rain to snow type scenario as the storm winds up on the coast... which adds in the usual timing and having enough remaining QPF issues. A colder outcome implies more press from the northern stream and thus likely a more progressive and/or southern tracking storm. This looks like a thread the needle type deal to get a widespread C-PA snow event into the Sus Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Got another squall overnight. Looks to be about a half inch on the cars and grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 There must have been a decent snow shower overnight in Marysville because I woke up this morning to my first car topper of snow this season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 car and mulch topper in Lititz/Elm area on way to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just a dusting overnight. Saturday looks like it's going to be a close call as far as location and cold air. Nothing can ever just be cut and dry. Looking forward to the tracking on this upcoming storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Thanks Mag!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Even though no snow here it is a winter type of day and feel outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 37 minutes ago, paweather said: Even though no snow here it is a winter type of day and feel outside. Yesterday as well. Biting wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Right. It feels seasonal. I'll take this for December 2nd. It would be a bonus if there were some damned snow falling or laying. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Nothing here at home. Friend in northern York county had a cartopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Steady snow showers up here in Clarks Green- 1/2" and 33 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 12z GFS says Saturday looks better w mslp and thermals, but verbatim, still a closer miss...:). GFS suite 12z new vs 0z para starting to have more similarities in progression anyway. If I lived in NEPA, I'd be moderately intrigued. That's just a 10 second glance, so troll me if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 12z GFS says Saturday looks better w mslp and thermals, but verbatim, still a closer miss.... GFS suite 12z new vs 0z para starting to have more similarities in progression anyway. If I lived in NEPA, I'd be moderately intrigued. That's just a 10 second glance, so troll me if needed. Could be rain to wet snow if dynamics are good.Definitely looking elevation dependent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 and furthermore, 12/11-12 shows my point from yesterday about the see saw look. Cutting to Illinois doesn't inspire a ton of hope about pattern locking in in the long range, but maybe that's just setting the table for beyond (just remember the good looks that we've struggled to see materialize - so proceed w/ much caution). Plenty of time for corrections (if the pattern that the ens guidance seems to be trending towards as we approach mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Could be rain to wet snow if dynamics are good. Definitely looking elevation dependent. . Maybe this is finally the western part of PA's long-awaited winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Guess what: it’s crazy windy! Repeated gusts above 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 Wow, 12z Euro just roasted all of interior New England with that weekend storm. That shows the potential with a phase, although I think with the pattern alignment being presented on the models a phase solution might happen too late for us as it did there. GFS didn't really phase in northern stream energy like the Euro did and thus we have a decent coastal storm but nothing huge... but the GFS did get precip into southern PA. Still a lot of differences in features. One thing I do notice today are that it seems all solutions are a bit colder and the tracks of the developing low come out of the deep south into VA and to the coast, which is a serviceable track for us. Just don't like the alignment, with the colder scenario the northern branch just seems to squeeze this under us with eventual late development once the storm is past us. Barring some kind of major development on models (which still isn't out of the question)... I think what's on the table for us here in this setup is if we can get enough cold air in place and a wave of precip up enough into PA with this southern wave. That would present something of the advisory variety if all went right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 I want whatever solution gives us most precip. My spring that supplies house with water is still pretty low and will take all I can get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 After an entire winter season last year without a single event even worth posting about it's great to be back. Wonderful early season "Jebwalk" through the snow showers at Shingletown Gap yesterday. Thanks as always for the insight on the upcoming storm MAG. Crossing fingers that a chance at accumulation this weekend can materialize! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 hours ago, canderson said: Guess what: it’s crazy windy! Repeated gusts above 35. Same here, I've had some surprising wind gusts. I'd bet there's some major blowing and drifting up in the Laurel's today where there were several warning total's reported and the Seven Springs Resort region of Somerset County getting 12-15" of snow yesterday. Also, I know you were wondering about the warm November. Here's climo from the CTP discussion. Quote .CLIMATE... It was the third warmest November on record (since 1888) at Harrisburg (MDT) with an average temperature of 49.9F (50.0F in 1975 and 51.3F in 1931). Harrisburg recorded the 6th warmest fall season (Sept-Nov) with an average temperature of 58.5F (+3.7F above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Nice start to the Winter Thread for 20-21! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: I want whatever solution gives us most precip. My spring that supplies house with water is still pretty low and will take all I can get. Good to see you again bud. Cant wait to turn the calendar eh?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Wow, 12z Euro just roasted all of interior New England with that weekend storm. That shows the potential with a phase, although I think with the pattern alignment being presented on the models a phase solution might happen too late for us as it did there. GFS didn't really phase in northern stream energy like the Euro did and thus we have a decent coastal storm but nothing huge... but the GFS did get precip into southern PA. Still a lot of differences in features. One thing I do notice today are that it seems all solutions are a bit colder and the tracks of the developing low come out of the deep south into VA and to the coast, which is a serviceable track for us. Just don't like the alignment, with the colder scenario the northern branch just seems to squeeze this under us with eventual late development once the storm is past us. Barring some kind of major development on models (which still isn't out of the question)... I think what's on the table for us here in this setup is if we can get enough cold air in place and a wave of precip up enough into PA with this southern wave. That would present something of the advisory variety if all went right. Yeah thats what I meant by closer but not there yet. Thermals I 80 N were marginally better but verbatim it'd be a rather thin stripe of snow on NW precip shield and elevation driven at that. Its only a couple moves away from eastern half of state seeing a decent event.....wet or white. on the other hand, its also only a couple moves away from smokin cirrus if cold press shunts it OTS, or, we get a jump NW w/ SLP and were all soakin wet w/ MAYBE slush bombs if dynamics get there. ULL did seem a little better wrt phase, so who knows....maybe momma N gonna show us some love from above in the craptastic 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 MDT recorded another Trace of snow this morning. That is now the second “T” that MDT has recorded this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Speaking of Trace, McSorley with his first NFL TD pass today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 hours ago, pasnownut said: Yeah thats what I meant by closer but not there yet. Thermals I 80 N were marginally better but verbatim it'd be a rather thin stripe of snow on NW precip shield and elevation driven at that. Its only a couple moves away from eastern half of state seeing a decent event.....wet or white. on the other hand, its also only a couple moves away from smokin cirrus if cold press shunts it OTS, or, we get a jump NW w/ SLP and were all soakin wet w/ MAYBE slush bombs if dynamics get there. ULL did seem a little better wrt phase, so who knows....maybe momma N gonna show us some love from above in the craptastic 2020. The 18z NAM got a little closer to threading the needle for some CTP snow. We need the perfect track and also need the low to strengthen at the right spot to get any snow out of this. Rates and Elevation would then help the cause as well. I would sign up for this solution right now. Let’s see what the 0z runs show tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Speaking of Trace, McSorley with his first NFL TD pass today. lol. I had a confused icon on your post....only to take it off as I totally forgot about todays game. Dont blame me.....blame 2020.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, pasnownut said: lol. I had a confused icon on your post....only to take it off as I totally forgot about todays game. Dont blame me.....blame 2020.... I took a chance with that one - I was a huge fan of him at PSU. I know he rubs some the wrong way with his homerun swing after throwing a TD pass, but the guy is a winner. All you have to do is look what's happened since he left Happy Valley to appreciate the impact he had on the program. Very happy he got a chance to play the last 2 series today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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