LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 The storm that January 2016 most reminded me of was the first snowstorm I ever experienced on Long Island...a storm that is commonly referred to as February 1983! That one was also supposed to stay to our south and also occurred in a very strong el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The storm that January 2016 most reminded me of was the first snowstorm I ever experienced on Long Island...a storm that is commonly referred to as February 1983! That one was also supposed to stay to our south and also occurred in a very strong el nino. I'll always take a Nino for our area any winter over this crap Nina, endless gushing Pacific air repeating pattern we seem to be stuck in. Hopefully some kind of tropical reshuffle can happen one of these days to make that happen. Seems that even when storms suppress during stronger Ninos that one or more eventually get us. 09-10 was a moderate Nino that turned out well here in the end despite some heartbreaks. 97-98 was overwhelmingly warm for anyone, 82-83 had the monster Feb event and 15-16 had Jonas. When I lived in TX at the time it was also a very stormy regime overall with multiple tornadoes close to me (what winter lacked, severe and incredible rain made up for-heaviest rain I've ever seen and I was here on LI for some good ones) which I'm sure that Nino had something to do with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 14 hours ago, LibertyBell said: ehhh the two worst busts of all time! But I feel like the Jan 2008 Heavy Snow Warning bust doesn't get mentioned enough either. I think that was the last HWS we had? Or that Valentines Day 2006 sleet storm.... what a horrible mess that was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: The storm that January 2016 most reminded me of was the first snowstorm I ever experienced on Long Island...a storm that is commonly referred to as February 1983! That one was also supposed to stay to our south and also occurred in a very strong el nino. SREF FTW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 15 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Many on here might be too young to remember March 2001. Models weren't as good as they are now and forecast two days out was for several feet of snow. Ended up with a few inches of mostly slop. But nothing compares to the January 2015 blizzard. Calls for 2-3 feet the day before the storm hit. Forecast: Reality: Forecasted 2-3 feet here for March 2001 Got 5 inches Got 10 inches from 2015 15 hours ago, LibertyBell said: ehhh the two worst busts of all time! But I feel like the Jan 2008 Heavy Snow Warning bust doesn't get mentioned enough either. I think that was the last HWS we had? I pulled an all nighter all week for that storm. 6-12 inches forecasted here with a heavy snow warning. Temps stayed in the 40s the whole time. The storm didn't bomb out until it reached SNE. Got 0 inches 36 minutes ago, TriPol said: Or that Valentines Day 2006 sleet storm.... what a horrible mess that was. Vday 2007 sleet storm 19 degrees with sleet here 4 inches of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I didn't realize how bad January 2015 was for a lot of my fellow nyc metro weenies until I first started browsing weather forums a few years ago...... It might be my 3rd favorite storm after Jan 2016 and Feb 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Forecasted 2-3 feet here Got 5 inches I pulled an all nighter all week for that storm. 6-12 inches forecasted here with a heavy snow warning. Temps stayed in the 40s the whole time. The storm didn't bomb out until it reached SNE. Got 0 inches Vday 2007 sleet storm 19 degrees with sleet here 4 inches of sleet You really got 5" from 1/2015 in Sheepshead Bay? Even Central Park had 9"? There were a couple of 15" measurements around Long Beach and pics I saw supported it to me. Again I was living in TX then. Otherwise, sucky part about our climate. Appreciate the wins like 1/2016 or the retro-bombs like 12/30/00 or 2/25/10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: You really got 5" from 1/2015 in Sheepshead Bay? There were a couple of 15" measurements around Long Beach and pics I saw supported it to me. Again I was living in TX then. Otherwise, sucky part about our climate. Appreciate the wins like 1/2016 or the retro-bombs like 12/30/00 or 2/25/10. He was talking about 2001 and also 2015 I edited my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 15 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: I didn't realize how bad January 2015 was for a lot of my fellow nyc metro weenies until I first started browsing weather forums a few years ago...... It might be my 3rd favorite storm after Jan 2016 and Feb 2013 Euro and Nam has 2 feet + for NYC a day before the storm was supposed to hit. Upton also put out an afd saying " Dangerous life threatening blizzard is on the way " 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: He was talking about 2001. Well then yeah, I had maybe 3-4" max depth amongst 20 hours of light-moderate mild crap. Cutoff for that was the William Floyd Parkway for better amounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro and Nam has 2 feet + for NYC a day before the storm was supposed to hit. Upton also put out an afd saying " Dangerous life threatening blizzard is on the way " Yeah I guess everyone has that one storm that busted that they despise, for me personally it's probably march 2017, if i remember correctly okx predicted 18" a day or 2 before the storm for western long island and we got 2-3" before it changed to rain. Of course that wasn't as bad of a bust as Jan 2015 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 The March 7, 2018 nor'easter (the first of that month's trio) is an underrated bust for NYC proper, IMO. WSW upgraded to 8-12" for the City the morning of the event, short range models going bonkers, the first wave of snow comes in like a wall... and then the tap just shuts off around noon. IIRC the storm got tucked a little closer to the coast than expected and the CCB tracked west across the city and set up over NNJ, resulting in on-and-off light to borderline moderate snow for the rest of the day. This radar shot from 1:30 that afternoon is pretty representative of most of the event, note the subsidence over the city from the NNJ band and the developing bands over the ocean that would briefly increase snowfall rates before merging with the main band: The low rates we got for most of the afternoon just couldn't overcome the marginal boundary temps, which hovered around 34 as soon as the dynamic cooling from the CCB ended. The mini garden in front of my building in Chelsea ended up with 1.5-2" of slush but when I left my office in Midtown you would never have known it had been snowing most of the day. Meanwhile NNJ and the LHV got crushed. Definitely the worst bust since I moved here in 2017, at least. Behold the suck: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Well then yeah, I had maybe 3-4" max depth amongst 20 hours of light-moderate mild crap. Cutoff for that was the William Floyd Parkway for better amounts. 12" here March 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Forecasted 2-3 feet here for March 2001 Got 5 inches Got 10 inches from 2015 I pulled an all nighter all week for that storm. 6-12 inches forecasted here with a heavy snow warning. Temps stayed in the 40s the whole time. The storm didn't bomb out until it reached SNE. Got 0 inches Vday 2007 sleet storm 19 degrees with sleet here 4 inches of sleet and a month later another sleet storm on St Paddy's Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: You really got 5" from 1/2015 in Sheepshead Bay? Even Central Park had 9"? There were a couple of 15" measurements around Long Beach and pics I saw supported it to me. Again I was living in TX then. Otherwise, sucky part about our climate. Appreciate the wins like 1/2016 or the retro-bombs like 12/30/00 or 2/25/10. if we had been alive in March 1888 we would've been dancing in the streets lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: SREF FTW and the NAM which everyone was laughing at when it first showed a monster solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Absolutely pouring in Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 Wantage NJ as of 610A 0.36" so far. Dramatic changes should unfold next 8 hours. Follow local NWS forecasts, statements and your own interp of the models. I am going with the NAM3K and EC. However, realize the HRRRX is not as robust as yesterday. Now we're in HRRR territory (inside 18 hours, so I'll use the operational HRRR to temper my expectations). GGEM and RGEM are not changing over to snow nearly as fast. So what follows, may be a little on the high side. Please USE NWS as official guidance. I'll add some data as time allows later this morning and afternoon and look forward to all your posts. mPING will be useful. Banding is developing now and this is going to be a swat for for portions of ne CT and eastern-central MA with thunder by midday and then afternoon bands of 1-2"/hr for a couple of hours-wet snow glop high terrain with valleys much less than elevations (6 or 7 to 1 ratios?). The wind gusts of 45-55 MPH late this afternoon and evening there will, in my non science opinion, make for a major power outages in the high terrain. This is based on my anticipation of minimum 4" of wet snow on trees -wires - road signs combined with increasing wind gusts this afternoon knocking down limbs etc. Note: I could see some ASOS's in the 4+" axis being muted-jammed accumulating wet snow. Anticipating mixing with snow extreme ne PA, NW NJ and Orange County NY northward, 7A-9A with possibly an inch or so high terrain above 1000 feet, trace valleys. NW CT and w MA should mix and change to wet snow around 10A-Noon, central MA and ne CT around Noon-2P and Boston itself may be delayed til 7-9P. Follow local forecasts for amounts in CT-MA...but i can see 5-10" Worcester Hills and 4" parts of the Litchfield and Hartford Counties in CT terrain above 1000 feet with ending there not til mid afternoon, ORH some time evening and Boston sometime after midnight. (EC has 15-18" from what I can see but this may not take into account melting, compacting and snow ratios) E LI and se CT I think will see isolated damaging wind gusts near 60 MPH while NYC isolated around 45 MPH this afternoon and 35-45 MPH ridges ne PA, se NYS and NNJ. Central NJ coast may see a brief burst of 45-50 MPH around 9 or 10 AM?? that I'm least certain of. 610A/5 Added 3 graphics produced by the NWS this morning in their interoffice collaboration. Please use as a basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Picked up 0.56" of rain so far today. Storm total so far 0.71" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 It's dry up here but feels rather moist. New England is going to get absolutely whacked once they change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 Ulster County near Fallsburg... edge of precip shield...snow reported in there air. First sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, wdrag said: Ulster County near Fallsburg... edge of precip shield...snow reported in there air. First sign. Some eminent signs of the change beginning in W MA/CT as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 That was a very large band of heavy rain that went through at 6:30a In a different climate this would’ve been a major snowstorm 42F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 It's snowing, big huge flakes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Gotta wonder if that's the beginning of the band that's going to produce the 2-3" hourly rates once it arrives into CT/MA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 Seems to me...band in far e e PA at 734A I think will be one back band and then a new one will evolve e CT/Central MA midday as the low aloft forms and then drift ne with the closed low this evening to Boston. Am a little nervous about 3"/hr... ratios are so wet. There could be some barking dogs 9A-3PM in CT/LI as I think thunder is soon. Note : 42 kt gust at Ocean City MD Weather flow station and 37 knots at Dewey Beach DE past hour. Coming together fast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, gravitylover said: It's snowing, big huge flakes. Keep us posted on any acscums grass vs pavement. Thanks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 The ratios will be so low though that the threat for rather widespread outages will only go up through the day...still guessing 7-8:1 for a large amount of the time. If only Cantore was able to station himself in Worcester. That's a sure recipe for some thundersnow to happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 Increasing reports of snow in the air from Central MA to se NYS higher terrain! This should be a NAM 3K forecast. I think it's the fastest on this. Correct is I'm wrong. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 snowing on the Mohawn Mt Webcam in NW CT - https://www.mohawkmtn.com/the-mountain/webcam/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now