NJwx85 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: You guys think this is bad....look up Feb 1989 lol. A busted forecast for 8 inches of snow, we got inches of virga instead. Many on here might be too young to remember March 2001. Models weren't as good as they are now and forecast two days out was for several feet of snow. Ended up with a few inches of mostly slop. But nothing compares to the January 2015 blizzard. Calls for 2-3 feet the day before the storm hit. Forecast: Reality: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 ehhh the two worst busts of all time! But I feel like the Jan 2008 Heavy Snow Warning bust doesn't get mentioned enough either. I think that was the last HWS we had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gfs ticking west. This sub forum would be going crazy if it was 10 degrees colder lol It's similar to the NAM. Puts snow back into the game for NW CT. But it's negligible for the majority of our forum outside of Eastern LI which looks to have quite the wind driven rain event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Gfs ticking west. This sub forum would be going crazy if it was 10 degrees colder lol But still not enough for us. Us inland folks would be going even crazier lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's similar to the NAM. Puts snow back into the game for NW CT. But it's negligible for the majority of our forum outside of Eastern LI which looks to have quite the wind driven rain event. Brings the 1.00+ pass you into northwest jersey now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: Brings the 1.00+ pass you into northwest jersey now. Hoping the QPF nudges just enough to get me over a quarter inch of rain/some frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Many on here might be too young to remember March 2001. Models weren't as good as they are now and forecast two days out was for several feet of snow. Ended up with a few inches of mostly slop. But nothing compares to the January 2015 blizzard. Calls for 2-3 feet the day before the storm hit. Forecast: Reality: From Queens/Nassau east I wouldn’t classify that as a miss. Nassau had 12” at the Queens border to 18” at the Suffolk border and 20+ east of Rt 112 just about. Long Beach had 15”. Of course I was living in TX at the time and missed this as well as the monster Jan 2016 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Brings the 1.00+ pass you into northwest jersey now. As you said it would be a crippling blizzard area wide with a moderately colder airmass. And maybe if this was a month later it could find its way there but just too much Pacific garbage to overcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Brings the 1.00+ pass you into northwest jersey now. I'm in Southeast Rockland County now so it's not much of a difference but yes it did get a tad wetter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: From Queens/Nassau east I wouldn’t classify that as a miss. Nassau had 12” at the Queens border to 18” at the Suffolk border and 20+ east of Rt 112 just about. Long Beach had 15”. Of course I was living in TX at the time and missed this as well as the monster Jan 2016 storm. Okay it was a massive bust for anyone in NJ and the LHV. And it was still a bust for points East of the city when you consider the forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Okay it was a massive bust for anyone in NJ and the LHV. And it was still a bust for points East of the city when you consider the forecasts. That was a massive whiff. Jonas followed the year after for us. We got nothing from either storm, and Jonas hurt even more. Latest GFS snows. It's all but certain now where the biggest whack will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: But still not enough for us. Us inland folks would be going even crazier lol But here in Sullivan County we're watching the trend, another jump west we all go bonkers ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 Looking good for High Impact 4+" elevations per NAM and HRRR for a significant impact event e of the CT River interior MA/n CT down to near our just nw of I95...combined wet snow/few wind gusts 35-45 MPH except 50+MPH I95 MA and possibly RI. Hopefully the 12z/4 multimodel westward drift is legit. IFFFFF it is, I want to point out the HRRR had it first. I expect gusts 45-55 MPH NJ coast and LI except few gusts lesser 40-45 MPH NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, sferic said: But here in Sullivan County we're watching the trend, another jump west we all go bonkers ! Doesn't look like much more than noise, however, since this run of the GFS looks most like 0z last night. All models probably will soon converge and are doing so already. Next week looks much more tantalizing at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: That was a massive whiff. Jonas followed the year after for us. We got nothing from either storm, and Jonas hurt even more. Latest GFS snows. It's all but certain now where the biggest whack will be Suggest looking at Kuchera and merged positive snow depth. Helps with elevations and warm daytime temps. Definitely more favorable than what we saw on the 00z/4 cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: Suggest looking at Kuchera and merged positive snow depth. Helps with elevations and warm daytime temps. Definitely more favorable than what we saw on the 00z/4 cycle. Good catch. I expect BOX and GYX will have to issue out Warnings within the next several hours. People might find themselves a little caught out knowing that today isn't exactly cold and that the precipitation is beginning as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 12z Euro Awesome track for many . This could have been a big snowstorm for many on the coast even in the mid Atlantic but cold air is the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 12z Euro Awesome track for many . This could have been a big snowstorm for many on the coast even in the mid Atlantic but cold air is the issue. Seems pretty straightforward-cold rainstorm here but colder air and better development by then switches interior New England to snow. CCB develops and pivots east to slam Boston before departing. Guess it’ll be cool to watch and see the New England forum explode but I’m beyond over the lousy windy rainstorms. Maybe we can pull out a miracle with the system behind it which could be a nice event with a little more spacing. Crazy how it’s happening with them in the mid 50s this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 Noticing two bands of strong banding transitioning northward through CT MA tomorrow...once mid morning and the other early afternoon. There is going to be quite a power outage event I think in MA/CT high terrain... combo of wet snow and gusts 35-45 MPH... I could see 1-2"/hr snowfall occurrence in parts of N CT interior MA tomorrow. Big problem up there. Also... don't give up yet in NNJ and even a snow shower down to NYC-LI in the wake Saturday midday-afternoon. Thunder I'm pretty sure will happen in southern New England Saturday mid morning-first burst of ice coated snow and strong pressure falls-advection fields. I may add more around 3P. I am thankfull this wasn't a big waste of our time... our CT and even NNJ and se NYS members will see some snow in the air, tho I think the 4+ acsums reserved mostly for CT. Snow depth on the EC suggests well over 6" in nw CT. Need to balance this with the still reserved GGEM-RGEM... marginal thermal profiles. It's the NAM-EC and even GFS vs the reserved GGEM-RGEM. What the models giveth, they can taketh. I don't want to see the 18z or 00z models back down. Here's the SPC HREF snowfall - see it's legend and also the 19z wind gust forecast... (MEAN). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Euro Ensemble Member 19 is interesting. I think North of 80 in NJ could pick up 1-3 still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: From Queens/Nassau east I wouldn’t classify that as a miss. Nassau had 12” at the Queens border to 18” at the Suffolk border and 20+ east of Rt 112 just about. Long Beach had 15”. Of course I was living in TX at the time and missed this as well as the monster Jan 2016 storm. IIRC there was a secondary band that set up over Nassau and far eastern Queens that helped limit the damage in those areas to "regular bust" rather than "historic forecasting disaster" like it was for the rest of the City, NENJ, LHV and western CT. I was living upstate at the time but vividly remember the insane runs and the shock of realizing what was actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: IIRC there was a secondary band that set up over Nassau and far eastern Queens that helped limit the damage in those areas to "regular bust" rather than "historic forecasting disaster" like it was for the rest of the City, NENJ, LHV and western CT. I was living upstate at the time but vividly remember the insane runs and the shock of realizing what was actually happening. Once the euro was on its own it was clear it was going to bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Once the euro was on its own it was clear it was going to bust I remember before other models started catching on the GGEM was the progressive/east outlier and thinking that was a red flag since it's usually the opposite. Still, the Euro/NAM combo was seen as unbeatable then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I remember before other models started catching on the GGEM was the progressive/east outlier and thinking that was a red flag since it's usually the opposite. Still, the Euro/NAM combo was seen as unbeatable then. The nam wasn't consistent though. If I recall it had 1 or 2 good runs and then caved to the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: I remember before other models started catching on the GGEM was the progressive/east outlier and thinking that was a red flag since it's usually the opposite. Still, the Euro/NAM combo was seen as unbeatable then. I thought it was pretty slam-dunk for at least a big time event for NYC with the Euro being so stout. That definitely busted and it started a trend of the Euro being a little too wound up with these storms. It was also a little afterglow for how well it did with Sandy while other models had it going into RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Posting this image should be a bannable offense. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 986mb in the perfect spot first week of December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 986mb in the perfect spot first week of December: And we rain lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: And we rain lol. duh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 fwiw... legend for snow mounts 18Z HRRRX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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