December 4th-5th, 2020 Nor'easter

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I guess we should note it’s about the 1 year anniversary of the last miserable windy cold rain event here where we watched I-90 get crushed. Can’t go too long without those. Joys of our climate.  
 

Note-many of us including me did end up with a couple inches at the end from the lingering CCB. Made up 1/3 of all the snow we got last “winter”. 

I think this is the 4th year in a row now up north got crushed while we got a cold windy rain, March 2017, March 2nd 2018, December 2019, and possibly this weekend now

[Allsnow]

And the nam is way southeast....swing and a miss

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

And the nam is way southeast....swing and a miss

what a horrid model-there's nothing to keep it SE like a big high or extreme blocking

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

what a horrid model-there's nothing to keep it SE like a big high or extreme blocking

It comes down to when the phasing occurs. If it’s late you can certainly get this outcome. Looking at the idv members of the eps a good amount had nothing. The general theme was big hit or nothing. Really nothing in between 

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It comes down to when the phasing occurs. If it’s late you can certainly get this outcome. Looking at the idv members of the eps a good amount had nothing. The general theme was big hit or nothing. Really nothing in between 

I’d rather it be nothing and have a salvageable and mild weekend. 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Did you not see anything in the late October event?

I got enough to make two snowballs

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

I think this is the 4th year in a row now up north got crushed while we got a cold windy rain, March 2017, March 2nd 2018, December 2019, and possibly this weekend now

You weren't around here in the 70's and 80's were you? 

[wizard021]

Monday could turn into a snow event, with the first one being a scraper.. more room to amplify the remnant cutoff low.

[North and West]

4 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

You weren't around here in the 70's and 80's were you? 

*and late 1980s/early 1990s here.

Those were fun.

[wizard021]

 Pa

Pay attention to the height rises over the tenn valley.. that is how you get a Miller a storm.

[wizard021]

Really close on gfs wow.

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, wizard021 said:

 Pa

Pay attention to the height rises over the tenn valley.. that is how you get a Miller a storm.

It almost happened

[rclab]

28 minutes ago, North and West said:

*and late 1980s/early 1990s here.

Those were fun.

I enjoyed my high school cross over years late 50’s to 60’s. As always ....

[Snowlover11]

these models are a joke, huge swings every damn time.

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

You weren't around here in the 70's and 80's were you? 

I'm only 20 so I've been spoiled my whole life lol

[Heisy]

1 hour ago, wizard021 said:

 Pa

Pay attention to the height rises over the tenn valley.. that is how you get a Miller a storm.

There’s not enough spacing here. Yeah you could see it trend closer to the coast, but I don’t see any chances for some kind of major trend. At least one model would be showing a hit with it if there was potential at this range in my opinion. 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Trending towards a situation where Boston gets slammed at the end as the low pulls away. Another all too frequent too-late developer. The only chance we have down here is a strong CCB that can overcome the awful airmass for a few hours. Couldn’t care less about another windy rain event that will be even lousier due to it being a cold rain and watching people 100 miles away get crushed. 

Maybe we wont even get that much rain and wind if the storm develops so late.

I take it that 0.6 on the edges shouldn't be believed lol

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Not if we get Niña climo February lol

it was pretty good in Feb 2006 though.

 

That said March can be pretty good in this ENSO state

[jm1220]

46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe we wont even get that much rain and wind if the storm develops so late.

I take it that 0.6 on the edges shouldn't be believed lol

Maybe. Looking more and more like a late developer that slams eastern New England like a warmer version of Juno. CCB blows up and it snows like crazy right down to the coast in Mass. Just forms too late for us here and the beforehand airmass is awful. 

[wizard021]

Saturday is out to sea.

[wdrag]

Have seen the trend and some of the discussion.  I'd like tor see the 00z, 06z,12z/4 cycles each  edge nw 20 miles...  if that doesn't happen, I will be wrong on the high impact.  Definitely disconcerting but not overly discouraged.  In a fairly high amplitude pattern, Sensitivity interaction nuances can make a big difference. However, to know which guides what, imo, we don't know.  

I know some folks are discouraged about modeling.  We've just come off two topics with easily more than 5 days advance post, that I thought were successful framing of the future.

This one we've known about uncertainty.  And we also know this is going to be a pretty good storm.  In winter we notice the difference of 60 miles more easily, because of the snow factor.  I know in 2000, I didn't have ensembles to look at to help gauge uncertainty (just a so called poor mans operational mental ensemble).   We're doing better and this one is not yet over. Maybe tomorrow I'll admit that it's fairly routine, but for now... tooo much potency to ignore.  Whether it yields here or just a little to our east and northeast... I can't be sure.

Will briefly comment tomorrow morning-hopefully with some sort of slight northwest trend.

[jm1220]

We need the lousy mild Sat storm out of the way as much as possible for a chance at the next one. Looks like there could be a phase there but there’s little space for baroclinic zone recovery and it could be forced out to sea of it happens too soon after. The airmass does look a lot better if it can happen though. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We need the lousy mild Sat storm out of the way as much as possible for a chance at the next one. Looks like there could be a phase there but there’s little space for baroclinic zone recovery and it could be forced out to sea of it happens too soon after. The airmass does look a lot better if it can happen though. 

@wizard021 is 100%. We could possibly miss a good snowstorm to our north and south in one week 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Allsnow said:

@wizard021 is 100%. We could possibly miss a good snowstorm to our north and south in one week 

One north one south then the Nina pattern. Ugh I hope not

[Allsnow]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

One north one south then the Nina pattern. Ugh I hope not

Well it’s just one run and nobody is getting hit yet. The H5 look improved let’s see if that continues 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@wizard021 is 100%. We could possibly miss a good snowstorm to our north and south in one week 

That and the trough is positively tilted big time

[Allsnow]

Just now, snowman19 said:

That and the trough is positively tilted big time

The euro at 18z had a bit of a negative tilt to it. But yes, we need to see continuing improvements. This could all be just a one run hiccup 

[wdrag]

fwiw: HRRRX (experimental).  Could be overdone and too exuberant...  BUT... for 18z/5 notice the max gust potential (50 kt NJ LBI area and 40-45 kt on much of LI) and the 850-500 RH with 700 wind... quite an area of lift northwest of the storm and the se edge of the 90% RH, axised ne-sw thru NYC.  Snow is already accumulating down into NJ high terrain and I would think there is some pretty good precip rates on going from NJ thru toward BOS.  Let's see what the next cycles say. As i prefaced...this could be overdone for us... but it is potent.

[hudsonvalley21]

[HeadInTheClouds]

If the 00z nam verified there would be alot of people jumping off bridges in New England. It won't though.