LibertyBell Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 47 minutes ago, Allsnow said: One of the reasons this storm is trending snowier for interior areas is the 50/50 feature that was not expected earlier. Instead of a ridge east of main it’s north of that area. The only reason this isn’t snow for the entire area is because the pna ridge is to flat. This is just another example of having bad luck in a small window of opportunity thats what I'm wondering about- why was the 50/50 "not expected" we used to have these kinds of errors 30 years ago too, seems like some situations are so complex that the prediction error has remained about the same as back then. Fair weather can be predicted just fine, even mid range cold and mild shots, but the things we really care about, like storms like this, they're just as unpredictable as they ever were. Even 2 days out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: I mean the tellies are good for a coastal snowstorm ( negative NAO, negative AO and positive PNA ). I hate giving up chances when things are starting to align. Yup, I'm just opening this is the beginning of a nice window and we'll score a hit or two in the next two weeks when it'll be much colder than it is now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yup, I'm just opening this is the beginning of a nice window and we'll score a hit or two in the next two weeks when it'll be much colder than it is now. Same here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: thats what I'm wondering about- why was the 50/50 "not expected" we used to have these kinds of errors 30 years ago too, seems like some situations are so complex that the prediction error has remained about the same as back then. Fair weather can be predicted just fine, even mid range cold and mild shots, but the things we really care about, like storms like this, they're just as unpredictable as they ever were. Even 2 days out lol @bluewave any input? Is this from the ridge off maine moving north? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave any input? Is this from the ridge off maine moving north? I was looking at the Euro ensembles, they're all over the place! Storms like this could really use a track cone like we have for TCs lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Seems like this storm has potential to be a longer duration wind event. @wdrag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: All we are blocking with this set up is pac puke. Basically killing the snow potential Yeah the lack of a cold high ahead of time is the killer here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 12z Nam shifts east It is still a cold rain for the coast especially in NYC. Very cruel since the track is great Enjoy the snow interior peeps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 12z Nam shifts east It is still a cold rain for the coast especially in NYC. Very cruel since the track is great Enjoy the snow interior peeps. Ski resorts rejoice after a slow start... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 12z Nam shifts east It is still a cold rain for the coast especially in NYC. Very cruel since the track is great Enjoy the snow interior peeps. NAM Fous says congrats Boston, maybe 10” or so of snow for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, uofmiami said: NAM Fous says congrats Boston, maybe 10” or so of snow for them. going to be tough right on the coast for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: going to be tough right on the coast for BOS Yeah it’s a paste bomb for them. N winds with the BL at +1 at 54 then goes to 0 at 60 with ok VVs. Upper levels are frozen through that time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 In 3k Nam we trust 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 precip field much further west on the 3K NAM. Regular NAM only has about .50 QPF for the NYC area when as the 3K is triple that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: In 3k Nam we trust LOL, that would give me 12” where I live 100’ above Rt 110 and some slush down there probably. Gotta love that model. I mean maybe if this goes ballistic and upper levels close off overhead here instead of over RI/MA, there’s an angels in the outfield chance for snow near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: going to be tough right on the coast for BOS It can be just fine for them if the upper low closes off and dynamics detonate overhead. Winds turn NNE and it’s all snow and heavy there. They had over 4” in the Oct storm, they can definitely do well now (not that it’s favored at this point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Icon has some very strong winds just off the water since it’s gonna rain on the coast anyway let’s root for winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 19 minutes ago, jm1220 said: LOL, that would give me 12” where I live 100’ above Rt 110 and some slush down there probably. Gotta love that model. I mean maybe if this goes ballistic and upper levels close off overhead here instead of over RI/MA, there’s an angels in the outfield chance for snow near the coast. If it goes ballistic just east of sne, LI could get into some CCB action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Nice deformation band signal on the 3k NAM. Temperatures for interior NJ and Southeast NY look to be in the mid-30's but the rest of the column is cool so we could see a changeover to a heavy wet snow inland on Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: 12z Nam shifts east It is still a cold rain for the coast especially in NYC. Very cruel since the track is great Enjoy the snow interior peeps. Typical windshield washer back and forth at this stage. 00z models tonight will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Typical windshield washer back and forth at this stage. 00z models tonight will be telling. Check out the gfs Pretty good for New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Nice deformation band signal on the 3k NAM. Temperatures for interior NJ and Southeast NY look to be in the mid-30's but the rest of the column is cool so we could see a changeover to a heavy wet snow inland on Saturday morning. Great post. I think the northern shore of LI should watch also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 If the gfs is correct we could see heavy wet snow at like 35-36F that doesn't accumulate. Higher elevations could see grassy surfaces turn white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If the gfs is correct we could see heavy wet snow at like 35-36F that doesn't accumulate. Higher elevations could see grassy surfaces turn white. It's been cold around here since the big thaw last weekend. Had a hard frost this morning. Ground certainly isn't frozen but with low sun angle and it being December it should accumulate away from the coast if it comes down even moderately. North shore of LI looks good too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 On a side note, this is my favorite type of storm. Overrunning well out ahead comes in Friday late afternoon. Then storm really cranks overnight into Saturday morning as low tracks from ACY to Cape Cod. Would be a perfect track for a crippling, long duration blizzard if the Northern piece was able to get out ahead a tad more. 12z GFS has 6"+ for Springfield and NW CT. We're not missing this by much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave any input? Is this from the ridge off maine moving north? I think the main problem was all the antecedent warmth this November. So the big +PNA spike trapped the Pacific air in place. Had this November been cold like last year, the snowfall totals we are seeing to the NW on the models would be closer to the coast. But maybe we can get some flakes down to the coast at the very end of the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 This just shows the importance of a good PNA ridge out west for snow opportunities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now