Intensewind002 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: I guess we should note it’s about the 1 year anniversary of the last miserable windy cold rain event here where we watched I-90 get crushed. Can’t go too long without those. Joys of our climate. Note-many of us including me did end up with a couple inches at the end from the lingering CCB. Made up 1/3 of all the snow we got last “winter”. I think this is the 4th year in a row now up north got crushed while we got a cold windy rain, March 2017, March 2nd 2018, December 2019, and possibly this weekend now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 And the nam is way southeast....swing and a miss 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: And the nam is way southeast....swing and a miss what a horrid model-there's nothing to keep it SE like a big high or extreme blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: what a horrid model-there's nothing to keep it SE like a big high or extreme blocking It comes down to when the phasing occurs. If it’s late you can certainly get this outcome. Looking at the idv members of the eps a good amount had nothing. The general theme was big hit or nothing. Really nothing in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It comes down to when the phasing occurs. If it’s late you can certainly get this outcome. Looking at the idv members of the eps a good amount had nothing. The general theme was big hit or nothing. Really nothing in between I’d rather it be nothing and have a salvageable and mild weekend. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Did you not see anything in the late October event? I got enough to make two snowballs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said: I think this is the 4th year in a row now up north got crushed while we got a cold windy rain, March 2017, March 2nd 2018, December 2019, and possibly this weekend now You weren't around here in the 70's and 80's were you? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Monday could turn into a snow event, with the first one being a scraper.. more room to amplify the remnant cutoff low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, gravitylover said: You weren't around here in the 70's and 80's were you? *and late 1980s/early 1990s here. Those were fun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Pa Pay attention to the height rises over the tenn valley.. that is how you get a Miller a storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Really close on gfs wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 22 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Pa Pay attention to the height rises over the tenn valley.. that is how you get a Miller a storm. It almost happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 28 minutes ago, North and West said: *and late 1980s/early 1990s here. Those were fun. I enjoyed my high school cross over years late 50’s to 60’s. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 these models are a joke, huge swings every damn time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: You weren't around here in the 70's and 80's were you? I'm only 20 so I've been spoiled my whole life lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, wizard021 said: Pa Pay attention to the height rises over the tenn valley.. that is how you get a Miller a storm. There’s not enough spacing here. Yeah you could see it trend closer to the coast, but I don’t see any chances for some kind of major trend. At least one model would be showing a hit with it if there was potential at this range in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 hours ago, jm1220 said: Trending towards a situation where Boston gets slammed at the end as the low pulls away. Another all too frequent too-late developer. The only chance we have down here is a strong CCB that can overcome the awful airmass for a few hours. Couldn’t care less about another windy rain event that will be even lousier due to it being a cold rain and watching people 100 miles away get crushed. Maybe we wont even get that much rain and wind if the storm develops so late. I take it that 0.6 on the edges shouldn't be believed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: Not if we get Niña climo February lol it was pretty good in Feb 2006 though. That said March can be pretty good in this ENSO state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe we wont even get that much rain and wind if the storm develops so late. I take it that 0.6 on the edges shouldn't be believed lol Maybe. Looking more and more like a late developer that slams eastern New England like a warmer version of Juno. CCB blows up and it snows like crazy right down to the coast in Mass. Just forms too late for us here and the beforehand airmass is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Saturday is out to sea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 Have seen the trend and some of the discussion. I'd like tor see the 00z, 06z,12z/4 cycles each edge nw 20 miles... if that doesn't happen, I will be wrong on the high impact. Definitely disconcerting but not overly discouraged. In a fairly high amplitude pattern, Sensitivity interaction nuances can make a big difference. However, to know which guides what, imo, we don't know. I know some folks are discouraged about modeling. We've just come off two topics with easily more than 5 days advance post, that I thought were successful framing of the future. This one we've known about uncertainty. And we also know this is going to be a pretty good storm. In winter we notice the difference of 60 miles more easily, because of the snow factor. I know in 2000, I didn't have ensembles to look at to help gauge uncertainty (just a so called poor mans operational mental ensemble). We're doing better and this one is not yet over. Maybe tomorrow I'll admit that it's fairly routine, but for now... tooo much potency to ignore. Whether it yields here or just a little to our east and northeast... I can't be sure. Will briefly comment tomorrow morning-hopefully with some sort of slight northwest trend. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 We need the lousy mild Sat storm out of the way as much as possible for a chance at the next one. Looks like there could be a phase there but there’s little space for baroclinic zone recovery and it could be forced out to sea of it happens too soon after. The airmass does look a lot better if it can happen though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We need the lousy mild Sat storm out of the way as much as possible for a chance at the next one. Looks like there could be a phase there but there’s little space for baroclinic zone recovery and it could be forced out to sea of it happens too soon after. The airmass does look a lot better if it can happen though. @wizard021 is 100%. We could possibly miss a good snowstorm to our north and south in one week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Allsnow said: @wizard021 is 100%. We could possibly miss a good snowstorm to our north and south in one week One north one south then the Nina pattern. Ugh I hope not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, EastonSN+ said: One north one south then the Nina pattern. Ugh I hope not Well it’s just one run and nobody is getting hit yet. The H5 look improved let’s see if that continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @wizard021 is 100%. We could possibly miss a good snowstorm to our north and south in one week That and the trough is positively tilted big time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, snowman19 said: That and the trough is positively tilted big time The euro at 18z had a bit of a negative tilt to it. But yes, we need to see continuing improvements. This could all be just a one run hiccup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 fwiw: HRRRX (experimental). Could be overdone and too exuberant... BUT... for 18z/5 notice the max gust potential (50 kt NJ LBI area and 40-45 kt on much of LI) and the 850-500 RH with 700 wind... quite an area of lift northwest of the storm and the se edge of the 90% RH, axised ne-sw thru NYC. Snow is already accumulating down into NJ high terrain and I would think there is some pretty good precip rates on going from NJ thru toward BOS. Let's see what the next cycles say. As i prefaced...this could be overdone for us... but it is potent. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 If the 00z nam verified there would be alot of people jumping off bridges in New England. It won't though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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