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December Discobs 2020


George BM
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57 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

^6z at 90 looks to be on it's way to a similar h5 evolution as 0z fwiw.

6z precip total (doesn’t include the Sunday potential).  It continues to suggest the rain will flip to snow here on NYE, something that I haven’t seen on another model. I’m not concerned by the freezing rain as depicted since we’ll eventually warm up even out here and the antecedent air mass isn’t super cold (aside from today where we’ll stay in the low 20s).

image.thumb.png.425d18a1d95d122f0e584bb5e7b437bb.png

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Becoming more likely n+w areas get some icing Friday morning at the  least . 

Where's CAPE ...you said 50 Friday.  Euro says eat crow lol . Stuck in the 30s through midnight .

Per Euro 30s today through Friday.  Only warm day is Saturday.  Remember 2 or 3 days ago guidance was spitting out 50s/60 Thursday/Fri/Sat/. 

Coldest run I've seen so far. Gets us down into the mid 30's early Friday morning. 

 

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LWX picking up on the freezing rain threat in their latest disco: @losetoa6

Latest 12z guidance, particularly the NAM and EURO,
suggests that there may be enough cold/dry air advection behind
the cold front for areas of freezing rain to develop overnight
Thursday through mid-morning on Friday. The best chance for
freezing rain will be across western and central Maryland, parts
of eastern West Virginia and into the northern portions of the
Shenandoah Valley. A few sleet pellets are possible across
these areas as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal boundary will linger over the area Friday as a low
pressure system tracks northeastward through the Midwest. An
interesting synoptic set-up with high pressure over Bermuda and weak
high pressure over New England. This poses a steep temperature
gradient at the onset of precip which occurs Thursday night. While
much of the southern half of the region is likely to remain
above freezing, NAM, EURO and EURO ensemble members indicate
freezing rain, primarily along the MD/PA border, down through
the Shenandoah Valley and the Allegheny Front. At this time, it
seems possible that freezing rain does indeed develop for those
areas.
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26 minutes ago, nj2va said:

LWX picking up on the freezing rain threat in their latest disco: @losetoa6


Latest 12z guidance, particularly the NAM and EURO,
suggests that there may be enough cold/dry air advection behind
the cold front for areas of freezing rain to develop overnight
Thursday through mid-morning on Friday. The best chance for
freezing rain will be across western and central Maryland, parts
of eastern West Virginia and into the northern portions of the
Shenandoah Valley. A few sleet pellets are possible across
these areas as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A frontal boundary will linger over the area Friday as a low
pressure system tracks northeastward through the Midwest. An
interesting synoptic set-up with high pressure over Bermuda and weak
high pressure over New England. This poses a steep temperature
gradient at the onset of precip which occurs Thursday night. While
much of the southern half of the region is likely to remain
above freezing, NAM, EURO and EURO ensemble members indicate
freezing rain, primarily along the MD/PA border, down through
the Shenandoah Valley and the Allegheny Front. At this time, it
seems possible that freezing rain does indeed develop for those
areas.

They are still showing 59-60 for Saturday though

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double hmmm... from LWX morning disco

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will pass through the area Thursday, likely
bringing some showers with it, especially across the
Allegheny/Potomac Highlands, northern VA, the Balt/Wash Metro
areas, and central MD. This is where there may be some
anafrontal characteristics (precip on the cold side) due to the
right entrance of an upper-level jet and a shortwave passing
through). While temps should still be warm enough for the ptype
to be rain for most areas, the rain will likely end as a period
of snow near the Allegheny Front in Garret, extreme western
Allegany, and western Grant counties. Snow amounts (if any)
should be light for most areas, but localized amounts around an
inch or two are possible during the morning commute in Garrett
County where the colder air will work its way in a little
sooner. The change over to snow is most likely going to be
during the early morning hours Friday for these areas (5-7 am).

The cold front will drop to the south Thursday night. There may
be a lull in precipitation as colder and drier air work its way
in from the north in associated with high pressure building to
our north. However, a closed low in the southern stream both at
the surface and upper-levels will begin moving northeast. Some
light rain across central VA perhaps into southern MD will
spread northeast and become steadier late Thursday night through
Friday morning. Rain will continue through Friday afternoon as
the low moves into the Midwest, allowing for warm and moist air
from the Gulf and Atlantic to overrun colder air in place. With
the colder air in place, this causes a concern for freezing
rain, especially across our northern and western areas. Latest
guidance continues to suggest that there will be enough low-
level cold air for temps to be near or below freezing late
Thursday night through midday Friday across northern/central MD,
northern VA, eastern WV, the Blue Ridge Mountains, and the
Allegheny/Potomac Highlands. A prolonged period of ice is
possible across these areas for a couple reasons. First, the
high building to our north during this time will advect some
drier air into the area, causing evaporative cooling when the
precip does move in. Second, there may even be some radiational
cooling across our northern areas with possible breaks in the
clouds overnight Thursday. A Winter Storm Watch (for a possible
Ice Storm) may need to be considered later today or tonight for
locations near the Allegheny Front in western MD and eastern WV.

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