aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I bet you see at least 50 on Friday. at 12:01 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Temps will rise Fri night into Sat morning. Most places will be well into the 50s and possibly 60s for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 Warm will never be denied when a storm tracks that far NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: We were talking about FriDAY Friday night is still Friday. To be clear, I bet your yard is at least 50 by midnight. eta- if it maxes out in the upper 40s, I still win, since you claimed upper 30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: I bet you see at least 50 on Friday. Scrooge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2020 Share Posted December 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That's it I'm moving to Mongolia...do they have Popeyes there? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Down to 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nobody posted the the Euro snowfall for Sunday . Gfs /para went the opposite direction overnight. Obviously Still worth tracking . Have to see how h5 evolves the next couple days. Carroll county special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Currently 20 degrees (low for the day). Picked up a fresh coating of snow overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 57 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: ^6z at 90 looks to be on it's way to a similar h5 evolution as 0z fwiw. 6z precip total (doesn’t include the Sunday potential). It continues to suggest the rain will flip to snow here on NYE, something that I haven’t seen on another model. I’m not concerned by the freezing rain as depicted since we’ll eventually warm up even out here and the antecedent air mass isn’t super cold (aside from today where we’ll stay in the low 20s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Got a few flurries in Burke right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Got a few runs in at Wisp this morning. Nice, cold wintry day. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Becoming more likely n+w areas get some icing Friday morning at the least . Where's CAPE ...you said 50 Friday. Euro says eat crow lol . Stuck in the 30s through midnight . Per Euro 30s today through Friday. Only warm day is Saturday. Remember 2 or 3 days ago guidance was spitting out 50s/60 Thursday/Fri/Sat/. Coldest run I've seen so far. Gets us down into the mid 30's early Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: You mean mid 20s per Euro Yes, typo. Approximately 25-26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: Coldest run I've seen so far. Gets us down into the mid 30's early Friday morning. Impressive run over run 2m temperature change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 LWX picking up on the freezing rain threat in their latest disco: @losetoa6 Latest 12z guidance, particularly the NAM and EURO, suggests that there may be enough cold/dry air advection behind the cold front for areas of freezing rain to develop overnight Thursday through mid-morning on Friday. The best chance for freezing rain will be across western and central Maryland, parts of eastern West Virginia and into the northern portions of the Shenandoah Valley. A few sleet pellets are possible across these areas as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A frontal boundary will linger over the area Friday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward through the Midwest. An interesting synoptic set-up with high pressure over Bermuda and weak high pressure over New England. This poses a steep temperature gradient at the onset of precip which occurs Thursday night. While much of the southern half of the region is likely to remain above freezing, NAM, EURO and EURO ensemble members indicate freezing rain, primarily along the MD/PA border, down through the Shenandoah Valley and the Allegheny Front. At this time, it seems possible that freezing rain does indeed develop for those areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 26 minutes ago, nj2va said: LWX picking up on the freezing rain threat in their latest disco: @losetoa6 Latest 12z guidance, particularly the NAM and EURO, suggests that there may be enough cold/dry air advection behind the cold front for areas of freezing rain to develop overnight Thursday through mid-morning on Friday. The best chance for freezing rain will be across western and central Maryland, parts of eastern West Virginia and into the northern portions of the Shenandoah Valley. A few sleet pellets are possible across these areas as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A frontal boundary will linger over the area Friday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward through the Midwest. An interesting synoptic set-up with high pressure over Bermuda and weak high pressure over New England. This poses a steep temperature gradient at the onset of precip which occurs Thursday night. While much of the southern half of the region is likely to remain above freezing, NAM, EURO and EURO ensemble members indicate freezing rain, primarily along the MD/PA border, down through the Shenandoah Valley and the Allegheny Front. At this time, it seems possible that freezing rain does indeed develop for those areas. They are still showing 59-60 for Saturday though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: They are still showing 59-60 for Saturday though 45 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 18z GFS looks to have more Freezing rain for northern MD. A bit colder. If you look at the last 4 runs there's definitely CAD pushing further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 GFS coming in a tick colder again for NYE/NYD system. Ninja’d! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 GFS is colder for Sunday compared to 12z. Still rain but has temps in the upper 30s for the northern crew. Something to watch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: GFS is colder for Sunday compared to 12z. Still rain but has temps in the upper 30s for the northern crew. Something to watch I guess. Upper 30s is getting into cold rain territory, and that's always better than mild rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 Colder rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2020 Share Posted December 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nothing beats tracking coastals year around but especially in winter . We've had a bunch this fall and winter . Bodes well I'd think for JFMA .I've seen many snows at 35-38 degrees too Good practice for when the blocking gets real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Hmmm 1 hour ago, thunderman said: 00z EC start New Years Day event off as zr across most of northern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 double hmmm... from LWX morning disco .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will pass through the area Thursday, likely bringing some showers with it, especially across the Allegheny/Potomac Highlands, northern VA, the Balt/Wash Metro areas, and central MD. This is where there may be some anafrontal characteristics (precip on the cold side) due to the right entrance of an upper-level jet and a shortwave passing through). While temps should still be warm enough for the ptype to be rain for most areas, the rain will likely end as a period of snow near the Allegheny Front in Garret, extreme western Allegany, and western Grant counties. Snow amounts (if any) should be light for most areas, but localized amounts around an inch or two are possible during the morning commute in Garrett County where the colder air will work its way in a little sooner. The change over to snow is most likely going to be during the early morning hours Friday for these areas (5-7 am). The cold front will drop to the south Thursday night. There may be a lull in precipitation as colder and drier air work its way in from the north in associated with high pressure building to our north. However, a closed low in the southern stream both at the surface and upper-levels will begin moving northeast. Some light rain across central VA perhaps into southern MD will spread northeast and become steadier late Thursday night through Friday morning. Rain will continue through Friday afternoon as the low moves into the Midwest, allowing for warm and moist air from the Gulf and Atlantic to overrun colder air in place. With the colder air in place, this causes a concern for freezing rain, especially across our northern and western areas. Latest guidance continues to suggest that there will be enough low- level cold air for temps to be near or below freezing late Thursday night through midday Friday across northern/central MD, northern VA, eastern WV, the Blue Ridge Mountains, and the Allegheny/Potomac Highlands. A prolonged period of ice is possible across these areas for a couple reasons. First, the high building to our north during this time will advect some drier air into the area, causing evaporative cooling when the precip does move in. Second, there may even be some radiational cooling across our northern areas with possible breaks in the clouds overnight Thursday. A Winter Storm Watch (for a possible Ice Storm) may need to be considered later today or tonight for locations near the Allegheny Front in western MD and eastern WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 hours ago, yoda said: Hmmm My poor hand railings 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Anyone in NE MD get any snow this morning? Radar looked briefly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: My poor hand railings Stay vigilant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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