December Discobs 2020

[Potvinsux]

11 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think we now have you and one maybe two other posters from Snowshoe. That’s great. One of you is usually there.and sending pics!. 

Yes!  I am fortunate enough to be in Snowshoe about 10-15 days a month.  Will be there for Christmas as well.  Drive is long but you are truly in another world.  Actual snow in the winter, 75° in the Summer....

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Potvinsux said:

Yes!  I am fortunate enough to be in Snowshoe about 10-15 days a month.  Will be there for Christmas as well.  Drive is long but you are truly in another world.  Actual snow in the winter, 75° in the Summer....

Does Snowshoe get more snow than Deep Creek Lake?.

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, ravensrule said:

Does Snowshoe get more snow than Deep Creek Lake?.

Average snowfall there is significantly higher. Elevation is over 4800 ft.

[WVclimo]

06Z NAM says the temperature here falls 22 degrees in one hour from 10:00-11:00 p.m. Christmas Eve.

[Rhino16]

23° at Snowshoe, I would guess we got 6 inches, the wind might have blown it around, so I’ll have to wait until I get outside. Might see 0° in the coming days... we’ll see.

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Sterling mentioning Twisters and snow and wind damage potential.  Can't get anymore exciting for Xmas eve 

very strong lower-level wind field is expected, along with
very strong dynamics and synoptic lift. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary concern. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

Rain is expected to change to snow over the Allegheny Highlands
Thursday evening, possibly mixing with or changing to snow over
portions of eastern West Virginia, north-central Maryland and
northwestern Virginia during the evening and overnight hours
before ending. Accumulating snow would be most likely near the
Alleghenies.

Wow a slush slinging twister. 

[Potvinsux]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Average snowfall there is significantly higher. Elevation is over 4800 ft.

Yeah, I think there are times where Deep Creek does better (last week Snowshoe quickly turned over to sleet and they had more snow) but elevation certainly does help, most of the time.

[Potvinsux]

1 hour ago, Rhino16 said:

23° at Snowshoe, I would guess we got 6 inches, the wind might have blown it around, so I’ll have to wait until I get outside. Might see 0° in the coming days... we’ll see.

Yeah, thinking around 7"ish.  Forecast was 4-8" so spot on.  Still snowing lightly.

Snowpack at 18".  Most in a few years. 

 

[Potvinsux]

Will be interesting if this verifies in Snowshoe...


Christmas Day will be the coldest of the season so far, with
arctic air firmly in place beneath the deep upper level system.
The ECMWF and Canadian have the upper level low over the area,
resulting in deeper saturation through the dendritic growth
zone, and snow ratios in excess of 20 to 1.

[Rhino16]

2 minutes ago, Potvinsux said:

Will be interesting if this verifies...


Christmas Day will be the coldest of the season so far, with
arctic air firmly in place beneath the deep upper level system.
The ECMWF and Canadian have the upper level low over the area,
resulting in deeper saturation through the dendritic growth
zone, and snow ratios in excess of 20 to 1.

You do think it would start as rain in the mountains, then transition to heavy snow? I have trouble understanding the temperatures with elevation change like that...

[nj2va]

26 minutes ago, Potvinsux said:

Will be interesting if this verifies in Snowshoe...


Christmas Day will be the coldest of the season so far, with
arctic air firmly in place beneath the deep upper level system.
The ECMWF and Canadian have the upper level low over the area,
resulting in deeper saturation through the dendritic growth
zone, and snow ratios in excess of 20 to 1.

It’s going to be some wild weather on Thursday into Friday in the mountains from Snowshoe up through Canaan and Wisp.  Will likely need wind chill advisories in addition to WSW.  

[jonjon]

Had a few close lightning strikes with instant reports during the snow last night.  Second time this season with thunder snow.

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Had a few close lightning strikes with instant reports during the snow last night.  Second time this season with thunder snow.

Amazing that a clipper produced that, very cool.  How much did Canaan get?  

[Potvinsux]

37 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

You do think it would start as rain in the mountains, then transition to heavy snow? I have trouble understanding the temperatures with elevation change like that...

Yeah, unfortunately rain everywhere but should transition quickly...

[RickinBaltimore]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Wow a slush slinging twister. 

A snownado?

[chris21]

54 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

You do think it would start as rain in the mountains, then transition to heavy snow? I have trouble understanding the temperatures with elevation change like that...

South winds warm all elevations quickly... In a northwest flow regime, the high elevations will be colder and snowier than surrounding areas, but there isn’t much difference between the high elevations and valley prior to a strong cold front... everyone warms up. As soon as the winds shift the higher elevations will very quickly transition to snow.

[jonjon]

20 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Amazing that a clipper produced that, very cool.  How much did Canaan get?  

Only about 6".  But its concrete wet-type, I'm sure the qpf was pretty high.  Very dense snow pack now, should hopefully hold up pretty well against the impending warm up over the next couple of days.

[chris21]

6 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Only about 6".  But its concrete wet-type, I'm sure the qpf was pretty high.  Very dense snow pack now, should hopefully hold up pretty well against the impending warm up over the next couple of days.

I’m coming in on Xmas day and I have 4 wheel drive (used to live in Pocahontas so am very comfortable driving in the snow). My question is... will Tucker county be plowing on Xmas day?

[jonjon]

2 minutes ago, chris21 said:

I’m coming in on Xmas day and I have 4 wheel drive (used to live in Pocahontas so am very comfortable driving in the snow). My question is... will Tucker county be plowing on Xmas day?

I'm not sure, but I think so.  Not sure if its going to be super high amounts of snow on Christmas that the need for plows will be real high, just the run of the mill snow covered roads.  Hope I'm wrong, though.

[wxdude64]

We may miss on snow and rain at times, but WIND never....sheesh. Currently WNW at 22 gusting to 37 and been like that for a couple hours now. Very little snow here, just flurries roaring by in the wind this morning.

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, jonjon said:

I'm not sure, but I think so.  Not sure if its going to be super high amounts of snow on Christmas that the need for plows will be real high, just the run of the mill snow covered roads.  Hope I'm wrong, though.

I’ve been to Davis many times with absolutely white out conditions and I’ve never seen roads I would consider bad. They do a good job. 

[Rhino16]

Some said that it rained / Sleeted at the bottom of snowshoe mountain last night, roads were probably terrible slushy mess.

[WVclimo]

12Z GFS has a 20-degree drop in one hour Thursday night.  The 12Z NAM has a 22-degree drop.  Not sure I have ever seen that with a frontal passage, outside of the mountains.

[chris21]

6 hours ago, jonjon said:

I'm not sure, but I think so.  Not sure if its going to be super high amounts of snow on Christmas that the need for plows will be real high, just the run of the mill snow covered roads.  Hope I'm wrong, though.

Do you find NWS Pitt has issues forecasting for Canaan valley? The current forecast has no precipitation for Friday (almost every time I’ve visited Canaan in the winter, NWS Pitt has underdone the amounts). Charleston seems to do a better job with Snowshoe.

[poolz1]

18z gfs with 2-3" for the 81 corridor....already saturated ground and 40+mph gusts.  

 

 

[poolz1]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Most guidance is 40-55 mph I've seen 

Yea...I def took the low end of whats being advertised.  Lots of 50+ on the models.  Get your Christmas candles out...or your Christmas generator!

Def seems like the gfs is trying to get back to some snow...Flakes would be great.  A quick period of rates and stickage....with morning roof blizzards would be perfect...

[mattskiva]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ve been to Davis many times with absolutely white out conditions and I’ve never seen roads I would consider bad. They do a good job. 

Yep.  I drove out for the storm in Jan 2016, was there the first day skiing at Timberline in an absolute whiteout, snow continued overnight, and woke up to almost 30" total.  I drove from the lodge at Canaan to Timberline the next morning with no problems whatsoever.  Roads were completely plowed and easy 3-4 hours after a 30" storm.  They know what they are doing.

 

[nj2va]

49 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Do you find NWS Pitt has issues forecasting for Canaan valley? The current forecast has no precipitation for Friday (almost every time I’ve visited Canaan in the winter, NWS Pitt has underdone the amounts). Charleston seems to do a better job with Snowshoe.

I’d be curious Jon’s thoughts for Canaan but until last month, NWS Pitt covered Garrett County and I always felt they were a few steps behind. 

[mattskiva]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’d be curious Jon’s thoughts for Canaan but until last month, NWS Pitt covered Garrett County and I always felt they were a few steps behind. 

Mountain forecasting is hard, no matter where you are.  The models generally don't account for upslope and local terrain effects well, and often underestimate precip and snow.  I have spent a lot of time in mountains from Virginia to Maine and from Colorado to the Cascades, and the NWS zone forecasts are never very good.

That said, NWS PIT handled this event well - they issued a WSW for Tucker yesterday for 5-9" and were right on the mark.

Most people here probably know about it, but for those who don't, http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com/ is a great local resource for Davis/Canaan.

[Stormfly]

43 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Yea...I def took the low end of whats being advertised.  Lots of 50+ on the models.  Get your Christmas candles out...or your Christmas generator!

Def seems like the gfs is trying to get back to some snow...Flakes would be great.  A quick period of rates and stickage....with morning roof blizzards would be perfect...

Wife already mentioned this regarding generator.  While we do have a 45kW diesel standby and keep all the (Christmas) lights on until sunrise Christmas Day (it's a tradition both Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve to run them dusk till dawn) I don't see running that HOG on high idle for stinkin' lights!  The smaller 5kW will suffice fine.

It's kind of funny here anyhow.  We have three phase power on the street so our service is VERY reliable.  But a clear sunny day it can just go *poof* for 3 seconds to a few minutes without warning which is annoying.

GFS model showing a few gusts in upper 50s low 60s around supper time.  That's not good.  That's quality R&R time for me!  I like the sound of the wind through the spruce forest, far better than the crack and woosh from last Wed night with all that ice! It's not even Jan and I've probably got a cord or two of mixed wood down from that storm.

If that's not enough we have a fair amount of inflatables in the front yard.  Those tend to not like winds over 30-40 mph either.  I got them guyed well but the flapping tends to break the wires inside and the LEDs go dark.