nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Anyone in NE MD get any snow this morning? Radar looked briefly impressive. I was awake when that blob went through the Belair area and couldn’t find any snow on the I95 cameras. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 @losetoa6 Perhaps a preview for Friday? Low level cold taking longer to scour out here. Currently 31 and guidance had me in the mid to upper 30s by now. I am sure we’ll get into the upper 40s tonight before the front drops through the area overnight but models tend to want to rush the 2m warming in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 12z GFS trended a touch colder at the surface. A lot of the higher res guidance is dropping dew points ahead of precip into the upper 20s and lower 30s along the 81 corridor. Looks like western areas from west of Hagerstown to Cumberland may be in for a descent ice event. Fairly good agreement on 0.25" - 0.5" falling as zr there for New Years Day. Looks like winter storm watches will be needed there later today. May get an advisory level event across central MD, into northern VA, and then west of the Blue Ridge to around Harrisonburg. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 12z Euro only 7 degrees off (high) its 1p depiction of temps here - also leaves enough precip after the front pushes through for 2” of snow tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Yea. The trend is definitely cold hanging in longer Friday but I've noticed precip onset is really been slowing especially in central Md . It was 12z yesterday. Now its ticking close to 18z . A bit slower on 12z vs 6z for onset...now after 19z east of HGR on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 EC 925mb trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 LWX has watches up for the extreme western zones. Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 143 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020 MDZ001-501-WVZ503-311000- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Mineral- 143 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of up to one quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany Counties. In West Virginia, Western Mineral County. * WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 hours ago, thunderman said: 12z GFS trended a touch colder at the surface. A lot of the higher res guidance is dropping dew points ahead of precip into the upper 20s and lower 30s along the 81 corridor. Looks like western areas from west of Hagerstown to Cumberland may be in for a descent ice event. Fairly good agreement on 0.25" - 0.5" falling as zr there for New Years Day. Looks like winter storm watches will be needed there later today. May get an advisory level event across central MD, into northern VA, and then west of the Blue Ridge to around Harrisonburg. Hope the cold trend continues!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 3k coming in colder for early Friday no surprise. Just one problem....no precip Keeps getting delayed ...maybe some freezing drizzle early morning my guess . @CAPEs high of 50 is in real trouble though. 30s till at least midnight Saturday. CHO even gets in on the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 One thing I will point out. Lower QPF isn't necessarily bad with borderline surface temps. With borderline temps, light QPF will usually slick things up more than heavier QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 24 minutes ago, thunderman said: One thing I will point out. Lower QPF isn't necessarily bad with borderline surface temps. With borderline temps, light QPF will usually slick things up more than heavier QPF. Yup. Less latent heat release and more time to accrete in cold surfaces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Guidance gets far western areas into the low 20s early Friday. Shaping up to be a legit event as it doesn’t look to get above freezing until late Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Per the NAM’s, not many freezing rain events start in the middle of the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 up to 46 with some drizzle. Snow pack has turned into a 3-4” glacier over the last few days so it’s holding up strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 LWX not too impressed w the icing threat outside of western MD. Hard to argue with that given guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 MDZ502-VAZ507-508-WVZ501-502-504-311715- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/ Central and Eastern Allegany-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Eastern Mineral- 404 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations around one-quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...Central and eastern Allegany County in Maryland, eastern Mineral County as well as western and eastern Grant County in West Virginia, and the northern and central Blue Ridge Mountains in Virginia. * WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night. The best chance for freezing rain will be Friday morning through Friday afternoon for the Blue Ridge Mountains, and Friday afternoon through Friday evening for the rest of the area. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 MDZ001-501-WVZ503-311715- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Mineral- 404 AM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations around one-quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany Counties. In West Virginia, Western Mineral County. * WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night. The best chance for freezing rain will be Friday afternoon and evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Forecasted high temperature here today is 41. Currently 47. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 14 hours ago, losetoa6 said: 3k coming in colder for early Friday no surprise. Just one problem....no precip Keeps getting delayed ...maybe some freezing drizzle early morning my guess . @CAPEs high of 50 is in real trouble though. 30s till at least midnight Saturday. Yeah it looks like the 'warmth' is a bit delayed from previous forecasts, probably after we dry slot. Just a bit of a disparity between the NAMs and the GFS though- GFS has 50s and even 60s(here) on Sat, NAM never gets the warmer air even to my yard, and keeps the area in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Dropped from 42 at 4a to 32 at 7a. Currently 31 and the rain has changed to snow (with a few sleet pellets mixed in). Picked up a fresh coating already. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Dropped from 42 at 4a to 32 at 7a. Currently 31 and the rain has changed to snow (with a few sleet pellets mixed in). Picked up a fresh coating already. Man Arlington is a different world from what I remember 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Man Arlington is a different world from what I rememberInside the Beltway is the new place to be 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not really a medium or long range anymore. Euro with a nice jump south with Sunday's frozen potential. It has been furthest north for several runs with just cold rain but a significant enough shift that N.Md sees a period of mix precip .CMC is similar...but Gfs has shifted the opposite direction from many previous runs. We just can't know The trend is your friend on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 50 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Not really a medium or long range anymore. Euro with a nice jump south with Sunday's frozen potential. It has been furthest north for several runs with just cold rain but a significant enough shift that N.Md sees a period of mix precip .CMC is similar...but Gfs has shifted the opposite direction from many previous runs. We just can't know Ggem suggests some follow up energy rotating through next Tuesday. Para GFS hints at it also. Maybe something to watch also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Dropped from 42 at 4a to 32 at 7a. Currently 31 and the rain has changed to snow (with a few sleet pellets mixed in). Picked up a fresh coating already. Light snow at our Wisp rental. Nearing .5”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 25 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Light snow at our Wisp rental. Nearing .5”. Just measured 0.5”...a nice birthday treat to have fresh snow . Are you staying through the storm tomorrow? Should get between 0.2”-0.3” of ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 Happy Birthday, @nj2va! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 WWA’s just issued from the Blue Ridge west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1231 PM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 MDZ001-501-502-WVZ501>504-011100- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0006.210101T1500Z-210102T0600Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 1231 PM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one third of an inch, with the highest amounts in the higher elevations. A small snow or sleet accumulation is also possible at the onset. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday. Freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet at the start, will move into the area Friday midday and then gradually change to rain Friday afternoon and evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2020 Share Posted December 31, 2020 RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1231 PM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 VAZ507-508-011100- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0006.210101T1200Z-210102T0300Z/ Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 1231 PM EST Thu Dec 31 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one third of an inch, with the highest amounts in the higher elevations. * WHERE...Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 10 PM EST Friday. Freezing rain will move into the area Friday morning and then gradually change to rain Friday afternoon and evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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