poolz1 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Wife already mentioned this regarding generator. While we do have a 45kW diesel standby and keep all the (Christmas) lights on until sunrise Christmas Day (it's a tradition both Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve to run them dusk till dawn) I don't see running that HOG on high idle for stinkin' lights! The smaller 5kW will suffice fine. It's kind of funny here anyhow. We have three phase power on the street so our service is VERY reliable. But a clear sunny day it can just go *poof* for 3 seconds to a few minutes without warning which is annoying. GFS model showing a few gusts in upper 50s low 60s around supper time. That's not good. That's quality R&R time for me! I like the sound of the wind through the spruce forest, far better than the crack and woosh from last Wed night with all that ice! It's not even Jan and I've probably got a cord or two of mixed wood down from that storm. If that's not enough we have a fair amount of inflatables in the front yard. Those tend to not like winds over 30-40 mph either. I got them guyed well but the flapping tends to break the wires inside and the LEDs go dark. No diesel generator here but I do have a job site generator...4500W which would keep things refrigerated and a few amenities. We have been in this house for 16 yeas and have never lost power for more than 30 minutes...and that has only been a time or two. Rumor has it that the main feed for a military installation on S Mt runs along our backroad and our power is drawn from that. Idk if that is true but we certainly loose cable internet quite a bit after storms and friends around the area loose power often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Thinking this cold front may be a bit more trouble than we need. That much rain and that kind of wind behind it could be trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I have livestock (tropical fish, reptiles, et al) and don't have the liberty to "bug out" and stay in a hotel or friend that has power. Also have a mini datacenter for various systems we use. Reliable power is important! We only lose power for days when something bad happens which fortunately isn't often: Isabel: 4 days Irene: 2 days March '18 windstorm 2 days We did not lose power at all from "carmageddon" - 01.26.11 storm, Sandy or the Derecho in 2012. Go figure. Power reliability is based on many factors. I lived on a road that was next to a critical care facility and the power never went out as well where everyone else was so that's a possibility. Cable is a different story entirely! CATV/DOCSIS unlike fiber needs amplifiers every few miles at most. These are usually powered by a drop from a residential pole pig or potential transformer. They also are SUPPOSED to have a backup battery but lots of 'em need replacing. That annoying blinking red light on the grey box on a pole? Yep, that's an amp/node with bad back up battery. And if the power is interrupted to one and it happens to be feeding your area you lose TV/phone/internet. Annoying AF! When we had Armstrong it seemed like whenever there was a thunderstorm with just a clap of thunder we'd lose all three for a few hours. When Verizon (FiOS) came to our area in 2015, it's been rock solid since. FTTP FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 hours ago, mattskiva said: Mountain forecasting is hard, no matter where you are. The models generally don't account for upslope and local terrain effects well, and often underestimate precip and snow. I have spent a lot of time in mountains from Virginia to Maine and from Colorado to the Cascades, and the NWS zone forecasts are never very good. That said, NWS PIT handled this event well - they issued a WSW for Tucker yesterday for 5-9" and were right on the mark. Most people here probably know about it, but for those who don't, http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com/ is a great local resource for Davis/Canaan. Dave Lesher is a great resource as is “the fearless forecaster” who posts on white grass’ website regularly. When I lived in Pocahontas for a few years the zone forecasts were rough but I feel like Charleston and Sterling had more of a focus on the mountain zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 22° up here. It’s crazy the amount of light pollution there is. It’s almost like it’s always 6am... or a full moon... from the bottom of the mountain, all you see are the clouds being illuminated. Don’t know why I’m realizing this now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 hours ago, mattskiva said: Mountain forecasting is hard, no matter where you are. The models generally don't account for upslope and local terrain effects well, and often underestimate precip and snow. I have spent a lot of time in mountains from Virginia to Maine and from Colorado to the Cascades, and the NWS zone forecasts are never very good. That said, NWS PIT handled this event well - they issued a WSW for Tucker yesterday for 5-9" and were right on the mark. Most people here probably know about it, but for those who don't, http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com/ is a great local resource for Davis/Canaan. Yeah, mountains always adds some difficult forecasting conditions but just comparing Pitt to LWX, I can already see a difference with LWX even reading their forecast discussions for the mountain zone. Beyond the challenges of forecasting in mountains, I just find LWX a much higher quality than Pitt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 NAM wants nothing to do with snow outside the mountains on Christmas Eve/day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Most guidance is 40-55 mph I've seen We don't usually realize the high gusts with S to SE winds, but this bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Speaking of Charleston vs Pittsburgh. Charleston is already being aggressive for snowshoe Thursday into Friday calling for up to a foot of new snow. Pitt always seems to be lagging behind but they do have snow in the forecast for Canaan....just not getting into specifics yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs getting there Definitely trended a bit better N + W of DC. My bar is set for snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Sure seems like many of us will see flakes flying early Christmas morning...not talking accumulations but snow in the air plus cold temps seem like a solid bet. If Santa brings me my big wheel it might be a little chilly riding but I'm gonna 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I haven’t seen the euro, but GFS, NAM, GGEM, and RGEM all have a narrow band of snow south of DC through southern MD on Xmas. Where it falls is slightly different for each of them, but someone may get a surprise dusting-1” Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Mountains have a flash flood watch tomorrow and winter storm watch tomorrow night/Friday. There was at least 6-7” snowpack when I left on Monday + 5-6” fresh snow this week...could definitely lead to flooding problems tomorrow with all that rain/rapid snow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I haven’t seen the euro, but GFS, NAM, GGEM, and RGEM all have a narrow band of snow south of DC through southern MD on Xmas. Where it falls is slightly different for each of them, but someone may get a surprise dusting-1” Friday. Had been noticing that, wasn’t sure if it was just a mirage or something. Flakes in the air would be awesome, a dusting.-1” on Christmas Day would be something. We’ll see how it plays out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 06Z 12k NAM has 3.62" of liquid falling tomorrow at MRB. Ends as a dusting of snow. Gotta love the NAM in its wheelhouse. 06Z GFS drops a little over an inch of snow accumulation at the end after an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Had been noticing that, wasn’t sure if it was just a mirage or something. Flakes in the air would be awesome, a dusting.-1” on Christmas Day would be something. We’ll see how it plays out..... Euro has it too actually... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I haven’t seen the euro, but GFS, NAM, GGEM, and RGEM all have a narrow band of snow south of DC through southern MD on Xmas. Where it falls is slightly different for each of them, but someone may get a surprise dusting-1” Friday. Yeah I mentioned this in the banter thread after the 18z GFS run yesterday. Had a nice band all the way to the coast. Just missed my yard by a few miles verbatim. Maybe the Mesos will pin down the exact location over the next several runs- or take it away lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has it too actually... 850s haven’t crashed through the area as of early Christmas morning so the 6z Euro ends with some light snow west of Carroll county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 It blows my mind that models are pinning a 85kt 85H wind max over NE MD on Thursday evening. Someone is going to walk with 2.5-3" of rain easily with this system. Hopefully no Christmas flooding at play, although I think parts of Carroll on west are under that gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 And there it is... 509 AM EST Wed Dec 23 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * Portions of DC...Maryland and Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore and St. Marys. In Virginia, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Orange, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Western Loudoun. * From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night * One and half to two and half inches of rain are expected Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. This is expected to result in flash flooding of small streams and creeks and possible river flooding. $$ LFR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I'm just waiting for the usual suspects to chime in that the temp drop along the front is starting to not look too impressive. 40's on Christmas!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 WB 12Z NAM....cold front heading east of I95 at 4am Christmas Day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: If mby gets 2"+ of rain definitely will lead to some flooding. Still snow pack and piles. Have to see what melts today . still hanging on here though grass is showing where the dogs have made tracks. womp womp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 WB 12Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 16 hours ago, chris21 said: Do you find NWS Pitt has issues forecasting for Canaan valley? The current forecast has no precipitation for Friday (almost every time I’ve visited Canaan in the winter, NWS Pitt has underdone the amounts). Charleston seems to do a better job with Snowshoe. Yes, CRW does seem to do better than Pitt. When there is a significant difference in their forecasts for the highlands, I rely more on CRW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 44 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm just waiting for the usual suspects to chime in that the temp drop along the front is starting to not look too impressive. 40's on Christmas!!! It will go in the books as warm. Probably 50s if not 60s for the morning "high". Front looks legit though. Probably wont hit freezing most places on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Can anyone help point out where the front is on here? Having a hard time finding it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 The 3km NAM drops me like 24 degrees in an hour tomorrow. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potvinsux Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Long list of Hazards.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 I’ve thrown some shade... so better make my forecast. Given the wind direction and the depth of the cold, I’m forecasting 8-12 for Snowshoe and Canaan through Saturday. I think upslope will continue into Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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