December Banter 2020

[mappy]

argh -- Smith is out for Sunday. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

argh -- Smith is out for Sunday. 

That’s trouble

[cbmclean]

48 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Boxing Day 2010 for our area

For example, your Boxing Day 2010 disaster was a Boxing Day 2010 dream in my neck of the woods (and a white Christmas in western NC, where I was spending Christmas with my wife's family).

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s trouble

for sure. womp womp. 

[MillvilleWx]

That was one of my favorite December storms of all time. Picked up 3” in the span of 45 minutes, and ended up with nearly 6 just before driving back to Millersville. There were two other storms that followed, and we soon ended up with single digit lows in Millersville with the pond near Wickersham Hall freezing over in mid-December, which was truly amazing.

I remember that! Was a crazy good stretch of weather and what ended up being a damn good winter for the region.


.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, HighStakes said:

I'll list events that busted in our favor. Some were major. Sorry if some have been mentioned already.

1/23/87: This was the first of 2 big storms to hit out region. Most forecast we're for 2-4/3-6 with the possibility of changing to rain. Instead a lot of areas saw a foot or more with temps falling through the 20's

2/20/79: Blizzard of 79. Most forecast were for a decent size storm but not for 20 inches.

2/12/83: Blizzard of 83. Same as above. Amounts over 2ft.

12/8/13: Already mentioned by Fozz

1/9/96: This was 2 days after the blizzard. A disturbance/clipper produced 3-6. Forecast was for a few flurries with some areas getting a dusting.

1/4/2002: A clipper overproduced and some got up 5-6 inches. Forecast was for C-2.

Late December 1990. I think it was the 28th or 29th. Forecast was for some snow but this storm over produced. 4-8 inches in a 4-6 hour period.

12/7/2007: A clipper gave some areas up to 6 inches.

1/25/2000: already mentioned 

1/30/2000: northern suburbs got 4-8 when forecast was for 1-3 then mix.

2/12/2006: an awesome deform band produced amounts up to 16-20 inches in areas like Columbia, Randallstown, Reisterstown etc. No forecast called for more than 10-12. Most forecast were for 5-10.

12/25/2002: northern suburbs got 5-7. Not well forecasted.

Here are some more without details

3/9/99

2/25/2007 to some extent

1/10/99 to some extent

11/11/87

Probably forgetting a few more.

February 2006 was awesome. Just snowed and snowed.

[jaydreb]

I can’t remember the modeling leading up to it, but the January 2019 storm that ended up bullseyeing DC metro area could be another example of a positive bust for that area (and maybe a negative bust for other areas).  

[mattie g]

@nw baltimore wx

I interrupted my Christmas music to ask Alexa to play Some Girls Are Bigger Than Others. Goddamn what a great song and band.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

@nw baltimore wx

I interrupted my Christmas music to ask Alexa to play Some Girls Are Bigger Than Others. Goddamn what a great song and band.

I knew you’d get it. The best.

[Scraff]

Ok enough weather talk. It’s Friday night! Let’s Gooooooo!! 

 

 

[HighStakes]

53 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice memory 

 

2/12/2006 

I could swear there was a massive cutoff west of Finksburg on that one ?

Edit: I think that was a storm from the 90s now that I think about it .

1/9/96 I thought was 6-10 " up here ?

1/12/96 was the 6-10

There may have been a sharp cutoff. Not sure exactly but I think Finksburg was in the meat of it. I thought the CCB  band included Frederick and even Hagerstown on the extreme west end of it.

[North Balti Zen]

Well hell, the Mandalorian has turned into quite a thing. 

[gymengineer]

For those who like looking back at snow maps, 850 and 500 mb analyses, etc from past events, just a reminder that Ray Martin’s winter storm page covers a lot of the events we experienced from 1993-2013. His is NJ centered, but most of our events are there: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/

 

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Well hell, the Mandalorian has turned into quite a thing. 

Really awesome

[psuhoffman]

@ErinInTheSky @MillvilleWx @Winter Wizard

There is a lot of perception bias to this. But I do think globals underestimate mid level warm intrusions and that’s a BIG deal here. That factor alone probably does make us more prone to negative then positive busts. But those do happen also. Only they aren’t usually going to be going from 3” to 12+ at the last second. That’s kinda extreme. DC area doesn’t even get that many of those storms. And most of our negative rug pull busts aren’t that close to game time we just remember them that way. Even this storm the writing was on the wall 48 hours out that big totals were slipping away. We knew. The 1996 storm we didn’t know until 24 hours from first flakes it was going to be that big. It started snowing late evening Saturday and Friday the forecast was 3-6”. Then the 0z guidance shifted way north and Bob Ryan interrupted the 11pm news to say it was gonna be BIG and the rest is history. We knew this storm was going wrong before we knew that was going right!  

@HighStakes there was another storm in Feb 1996 that was a total shock. A miller B that was supposed to develop too late for our area. Night before the forecast was nothing and woke up in Herndon VA to 3” and heavy snow. Ended up with 8” and some places got 12”.  There are some others you can add to the list below. 
 

More recently the Feb 2006 storm wasn’t really locked in until 48 hours out. There were hints on some runs (famously the JMA) but it was 48 hours that the majority of guidance caught on.  And even this it outperformed the final forecasts.
 

Did someone mention the Jan 30 2010 storm?  

The second Feb 2010 Storm wasn’t on guidance until 48 hours out. 
 

A lot of the 2014 storms didn’t appear until 72 hours and didn’t look big until 36-48 hours out. The early march storm looked north until about 48 hours out. 
 

Feb 2015 some places in MD for 12” when the forecast was 3-6 when the storm started. 

Jan 2019 was a pretty big +bust in your area 

One thing I’ve noticed I can’t remember any last minute big busts from a storm suddenly shifting way south.  That just isn’t likely.  It’s not as bad as it used to be but there is still a tendency for big storms to trend north some the final 48 hours.  Add in their underestimate of warm layers and that combo makes up most of our last second busts. 

[Rhino16]

2 hours ago, Scraff said:

Ok enough weather talk. It’s Friday night! Let’s Gooooooo!! 

 

 

I like how immediately, it goes back to weather. Nice try, we’re all weenies here!

[notvirga!]

I remember the late dec 1990 storm. Went to high school basketball post Christmas tournament in front royal. Started snowing when we arrived in the evening and by the time we got home there was about 8 inches which fell in just a few hours. Barely made it home. Dad was driving a dodge Aries and it conked out at the top of our long driveway (probably snow in the engine) It was a long drive home that night from front royal to Winchester. 

[yoda]

3 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Well hell, the Mandalorian has turned into quite a thing. 

 

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Really awesome

This is the way

[WVclimo]

10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The 1996 storm we didn’t know until 24 hours from first flakes it was going to be that big. It started snowing late evening Saturday and Friday the forecast was 3-6”. Then the 0z guidance shifted way north and Bob Ryan interrupted the 11pm news to say it was gonna be BIG and the rest is history. We knew this storm was going wrong before we knew that was going right!  

I was traveling on business the week of the ‘96 event. On Thursday afternoon I checked into a motel in Lancaster, PA and flipped on the TV to find PSU’s “Weather World” broadcast.  They put up a weekend forecast map of the mid-Atlantic centered on PA that had graphics laid across the whole area that read “BIG SNOWS” in all-caps.  They were forecasting 1-2’.  Way ahead of NWS on that storm.

Friday afternoon I was leaving Seacaucus, NJ wrapping up the trip and saw a bank thermometer that read 3°.  That’s when I knew we might be in great shape.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think those hoping for Christmas snow are gonna be disappointed 

[aldie 22]

18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think those hoping for Christmas snow are gonna be disappointed 

Dang Mayor Mcscrooge you and ers should go share a pint of sour beer and talk about Christmas past failures 

[chris21]

14 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@ErinInTheSky @MillvilleWx @Winter Wizard

There is a lot of perception bias to this. But I do think globals underestimate mid level warm intrusions and that’s a BIG deal here. That factor alone probably does make us more prone to negative then positive busts. But those do happen also. Only they aren’t usually going to be going from 3” to 12+ at the last second. That’s kinda extreme. DC area doesn’t even get that many of those storms. And most of our negative rug pull busts aren’t that close to game time we just remember them that way. Even this storm the writing was on the wall 48 hours out that big totals were slipping away. We knew. The 1996 storm we didn’t know until 24 hours from first flakes it was going to be that big. It started snowing late evening Saturday and Friday the forecast was 3-6”. Then the 0z guidance shifted way north and Bob Ryan interrupted the 11pm news to say it was gonna be BIG and the rest is history. We knew this storm was going wrong before we knew that was going right!  

@HighStakes there was another storm in Feb 1996 that was a total shock. A miller B that was supposed to develop too late for our area. Night before the forecast was nothing and woke up in Herndon VA to 3” and heavy snow. Ended up with 8” and some places got 12”.  There are some others you can add to the list below. 
 

More recently the Feb 2006 storm wasn’t really locked in until 48 hours out. There were hints on some runs (famously the JMA) but it was 48 hours that the majority of guidance caught on.  And even this it outperformed the final forecasts.
 

Did someone mention the Jan 30 2010 storm?  

The second Feb 2010 Storm wasn’t on guidance until 48 hours out. 
 

A lot of the 2014 storms didn’t appear until 72 hours and didn’t look big until 36-48 hours out. The early march storm looked north until about 48 hours out. 
 

Feb 2015 some places in MD for 12” when the forecast was 3-6 when the storm started. 

Jan 2019 was a pretty big +bust in your area 

One thing I’ve noticed I can’t remember any last minute big busts from a storm suddenly shifting way south.  That just isn’t likely.  It’s not as bad as it used to be but there is still a tendency for big storms to trend north some the final 48 hours.  Add in their underestimate of warm layers and that combo makes up most of our last second busts. 

Early March 2014 adjusted south at the last minute right?

[HighStakes]

26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think those hoping for Christmas snow are gonna be disappointed 

All you have to do is invite all the Republicans in Congress over and you'll have your white Christmas. Sorry, I couldn't resist.

[WinterWxLuvr]

55 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

All you have to do is invite all the Republicans in Congress over and you'll have your white Christmas. Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Please

[aldie 22]

Having lunch at the Stables in Westminster....I don't think I'm in Leesburg anymore:)

[40westwx]

18 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Well hell, the Mandalorian has turned into quite a thing. 

Apparently my son cried last episode cause Baby Yoda left with Luke.. its awesome that they have a hit TV show to keep the franchise going!  I have watched it a little.. its made really well and really captures the magic of star wars!

[nj2va]

18 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Well hell, the Mandalorian has turned into quite a thing. 

That’s Star Trek right?

[North Balti Zen]

It is not.

[40westwx]

5 hours ago, WVclimo said:

I was traveling on business the week of the ‘96 event. On Thursday afternoon I checked into a motel in Lancaster, PA and flipped on the TV to find PSU’s “Weather World” broadcast.  They put up a weekend forecast map of the mid-Atlantic centered on PA that had graphics laid across the whole area that read “BIG SNOWS” in all-caps.  They were forecasting 1-2’.  Way ahead of NWS on that storm.

Friday afternoon I was leaving Seacaucus, NJ wrapping up the trip and saw a bank thermometer that read 3°.  That’s when I knew we might be in great shape.

Talk about models picking up on the big ones early... 1993 was the first time I ever heard the word "computer model" during a weather broadcast.. it was the weather channel and it was either Bruce Edwards or John Hope geeking out about how they had major consensus in the global models 5 days out on the Super Storm.. they were saying that they had never seen model output like that before... 

[NorthArlington101]

That’s Star Trek right?

Think it’s Battlestar Galactica, actually