December Banter 2020

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

I get the desire to create unique beers/drinks with different things added but some stuff just doesn't seem worth it.  Seafood, scrapple, peanut butter, etc.  I'm sure they will try to make a mayonnaise flavored or lima bean flavored one at some point

Why not both?

[aldie 22]

I don't care how old I get looking out the window through the wreath will always make me happy 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I don't care how old I get looking out the window through the wreath will always make me happy 

 

Seems like you need to trim your eyebrow and nose hairs....

[aldie 22]

31 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Seems like you need to trim your eyebrow and nose hairs....

Daily friend....daily

[CAPE]

NWS radar has always been my go-to, probably out of convenience. The new radar is just a horrific combo of ugly and poor functionality.

Any suggestions on the best (free) radar site?

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

NWS radar has always been my go-to, probably out of convenience. The new radar is just a horrific combo of ugly and poor functionality.

Any suggestions on the best (free) radar site?

COD Meteorology is good. Highly recommend RadarScope if you don't have it. It's my fav radar for mobile. For PC, the best free one for me is COD. The best pay are GR Analyst and WeatherTap

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

13 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Really enjoyed having to shovel this morning. Best driveway walls I have had since 2016. Meanwhile check out this from Upstate NY. Holy crush job!

 

Wow, that's a shite-ton of snow.  Gorgeous!  I heard the reports from Binghamton, NY...just unreal.  What we wouldn't give for that here...

I admit my initial thought upon seeing this photo was someone inside the house saying, "OK, very funny, who the hell dumped all this popcorn on my doorstep!!"

[aldie 22]

I'm hopeful that CAPE and Jakel and Osfan can keep us updated on any negative trends moving forward. I always know when they are dominating the discussion they are just keeping it real for all of us. 

[H2O]

51 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

COD Meteorology is good. Highly recommend RadarScope if you don't have it. It's my fav radar for mobile. For PC, the best free one for me is COD. The best pay are GR Analyst and WeatherTap

[WinterWxLuvr]

58 minutes ago, CAPE said:

NWS radar has always been my go-to, probably out of convenience. The new radar is just a horrific combo of ugly and poor functionality.

Any suggestions on the best (free) radar site?

I mean, at some point don’t we have to expect more from a government funded agency? When an $8 app is far superior, doesn’t that say volumes?

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I mean, at some point don’t we have to expect more from a government funded agency? When an $8 app is far superior, doesn’t that say volumes?

Yeah its embarrassing.  I don't understand why they had to blow up the whole look/functionality just because Flash support is done. Use another runtime app/plugin but keep the same general interface and features.

[WinterWxLuvr]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah its embarrassing.  I don't understand why they had to blow up the whole look/functionality just because Flash support is done. Use another runtime app/plugin but keep the same general interface and features.

Totally agree. And a totally unacceptable product that’s been put forth.

[Vice-Regent]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

There’s some robust NS energy on the GFS next Tuesday swinging down that would be another 4-6”+ for the mountains/ski resorts.  Great timing for business as they head into the holiday period.

I am still wondering how they actually do it. Wasn't HAARP shut down? Probably more lies.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said:

I am still wondering how they actually do it. Wasn't HAARP shut down? Probably more lies.

Say wut?

[Vice-Regent]

[WinterWxLuvr]

Some people, if you placed a million dollars in front of them, and said take it, it’s yours, would look at the stack and reply “some of the bills are turned differently “.

[H2O]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Some people, if you placed a million dollars in front of them, and said take it, it’s yours, would look at the stack and reply “some of the bills are turned differently “.

The problem is that you are phrasing it wrong. The money is on the table but being given to you by the CMC. And you can’t take it for 4 days. Then it says come back every 6 hours and check to see how it’s doing.  And for 3 days it shows more than one million or at least a million.  Then 6 hours before the 4 days are up it takes 80% of it away and says come back because it will be there again in a couple days. 
 

And my dumb ass comes back. Every. Single. Time. 

[ErinInTheSky]

So this last storm was nice, fun, etc. But I've been here now for I think what, 4 winters now, and it seems like every time we get models showing 12+" of snow, it gets cut down to 3-6" last minute. 

 

So my question: Does it ever work the other way around? All the models showing 3-6" of snow in the DC area and instead, we get 12" after a last 48 hours model flip?

[MillvilleWx]

6 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

So this last storm was nice, fun, etc. But I've been here now for I think what, 4 winters now, and it seems like every time we get models showing 12+" of snow, it gets cut down to 3-6" last minute. 

 

So my question: Does it ever work the other way around? All the models showing 3-6" of snow in the DC area and instead, we get 12" after a last 48 hours model flip?

There have been positive busts in the past. DC area won't ever see much in the way of positive busts since they are DC (sort of a joke lol) but it can happen outside the urban corridor. We've had some doozy ones in the past 12/8/2013 is crazy one. Called for 1-3" in the Baltimore area and ended up with 6-8" with a football game going on during. Was at that game. One of the best Ravens games of all time, but that's another story all by itself. 

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

There have been positive busts in the past. DC area won't ever see much in the way of positive busts since they are DC (sort of a joke lol) but it can happen outside the urban corridor. We've had some doozy ones in the past 12/8/2013 is crazy one. Called for 1-3" in the Baltimore area and ended up with 6-8" with a football game going on during. Was at that game. One of the best Ravens games of all time, but that's another story all by itself. 

That sounds incredible!

I'm in the burbs in NW MoCo so I assume busting high is possible here. I often over-perform the forecasts, but usually only by an inch or so, mainly due to microclimate.

 

But I have yet to get a 2-4" event last minute warp to a 6-12".

[nw baltimore wx]

31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Can’t avoid the 60F+ Xmas eve. It’s happening.

So I deep fry a turkey in shorts and eat it the next day after shoveling? I can live with that.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

That sounds incredible!

I'm in the burbs in NW MoCo so I assume busting high is possible here. I often over-perform the forecasts, but usually only by an inch or so, mainly due to microclimate.

 

But I have yet to get a 2-4" event last minute warp to a 6-12".

It's tougher considering NWP has improved vastly over the last several years. Yeah, certain models can bust on a forecast, but even this last one there was hints of trending negative for some and positive for others. The odds are lower, but they can happen. WWA's can turn into WSW's if mesoscale trends turn more favorable. A lot of it has to do with strength and positioning of mid-level features and sometimes micro-climate influences like terrain. You're in a solid area for winter precip in the state. Off to the your NW in the county is the best spot with Damascus and Clarksburg along Pars Ridge. You'll get to know the favored climos in the area pretty quickly. 

[wxdude64]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Yeah its embarrassing.  I don't understand why they had to blow up the whole look/functionality just because Flash support is done. Use another runtime app/plugin but keep the same general interface and features.

 

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Totally agree. And a totally unacceptable product that’s been put forth.

Absolutely. Ruined what was an easy 30 second glance at what was happening now and a quick run of play for the trend/direction to a 5 minute 10 click Hades wait for something to happen

[Fozz]

58 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

There have been positive busts in the past. DC area won't ever see much in the way of positive busts since they are DC (sort of a joke lol) but it can happen outside the urban corridor. We've had some doozy ones in the past 12/8/2013 is crazy one. Called for 1-3" in the Baltimore area and ended up with 6-8" with a football game going on during. Was at that game. One of the best Ravens games of all time, but that's another story all by itself. 

That was one of my favorite December storms of all time. Picked up 3” in the span of 45 minutes, and ended up with nearly 6 just before driving back to Millersville. There were two other storms that followed, and we soon ended up with single digit lows in Millersville with the pond near Wickersham Hall freezing over in mid-December, which was truly amazing.

[Winter Wizard]

1 hour ago, ErinInTheSky said:

So this last storm was nice, fun, etc. But I've been here now for I think what, 4 winters now, and it seems like every time we get models showing 12+" of snow, it gets cut down to 3-6" last minute. 

 

So my question: Does it ever work the other way around? All the models showing 3-6" of snow in the DC area and instead, we get 12" after a last 48 hours model flip?

January 2000 is the ultimate example of a positive bust in our area. The storm was predicted to go out to sea but instead continued northward and dumped over a foot of snow across much of the area. As @MillvilleWx alluded to, NWP models have substantially increased in accuracy since then, so such a large-scale bust likely won't happen again. November 1987 I imagine was a similar type of positive bust.

November 2018 is also a good recent example: the storm ended up colder than expected, so areas along I-95 and north and west got quite a bit more than forecast.

December 2013 is a different case since that was the result of a mesoscale band in an area of strong convergence. - those types of busts can still happen as models have still have difficulty pinpointing the magnitude and location of those bands. Just ask Binghamton, for example. In February 2009, there was an inverted trough that set up near Philly and dropped a surprise 8 inches over the city. 

[ErinInTheSky]

2 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

January 2000 is the ultimate example of a positive bust in our area. The storm was predicted to go out to sea but instead continued northward and dumped over a foot of snow across much of the area. As @MillvilleWx alluded to, NWP models have substantially increased in accuracy since then, so such a large-scale bust likely won't happen again. November 1987 I imagine was a similar type of positive bust.

November 2018 is also a good recent example: the storm ended up colder than expected, so areas along I-95 and north and west got quite a bit more than forecast.

December 2013 is a different case since that was the result of a mesoscale band in an area of strong convergence. - those types of busts can still happen as models have still have difficulty pinpointing the magnitude and location of those bands. Just ask Binghamton, for example. In February 2009, there was an inverted trough that set up near Philly and dropped a surprise 8 inches over the city. 

I'm trying to conceptualize this... is there a reason why negative busts are much more common than positive ones?

[Winter Wizard]

1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said:

I'm trying to conceptualize this... is there a reason why negative busts are much more common than positive ones?

I think this is just a matter of perception - keep in mind that a negative bust for you usually means a positive bust for someone else. Additionally, there is still a margin of error even in short range, and slight adjustments to a storm's track have significant implications. The January 2015 bust in NYC is a great example of this, same with Boxing Day 2010 for our area. If we think about recent storms like March 2017 and the one this week, it could be that NWP models underestimate mid-level warmth, as evidenced by the sleet line going farther north and west than expected. This storm is also another example of how deceiving snow maps can be in marginal setups, as many of them count sleet as snow and that inflates totals. 

[benjammin]

^I would think the simplistic answer would be look at all the factors that have to go right to get a significant snow in the area and how easy it is for one of them to be mis-modeled.

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

[HighStakes]

2 hours ago, ErinInTheSky said:

So this last storm was nice, fun, etc. But I've been here now for I think what, 4 winters now, and it seems like every time we get models showing 12+" of snow, it gets cut down to 3-6" last minute. 

 

So my question: Does it ever work the other way around? All the models showing 3-6" of snow in the DC area and instead, we get 12" after a last 48 hours model flip?

I'll list events that busted in our favor. Some were major. Sorry if some have been mentioned already.

1/23/87: This was the first of 2 big storms to hit out region. Most forecast we're for 2-4/3-6 with the possibility of changing to rain. Instead a lot of areas saw a foot or more with temps falling through the 20's

2/20/79: Blizzard of 79. Most forecast were for a decent size storm but not for 20 inches.

2/12/83: Blizzard of 83. Same as above. Amounts over 2ft.

12/8/13: Already mentioned by Fozz

1/9/96: This was 2 days after the blizzard. A disturbance/clipper produced 3-6. Forecast was for a few flurries with some areas getting a dusting.

1/4/2002: A clipper overproduced and some got up 5-6 inches. Forecast was for C-2.

Late December 1990. I think it was the 28th or 29th. Forecast was for some snow but this storm over produced. 4-8 inches in a 4-6 hour period.

12/7/2007: A clipper gave some areas up to 6 inches.

1/25/2000: already mentioned 

1/30/2000: northern suburbs got 4-8 when forecast was for 1-3 then mix.

2/12/2006: an awesome deform band produced amounts up to 16-20 inches in areas like Columbia, Randallstown, Reisterstown etc. No forecast called for more than 10-12. Most forecast were for 5-10.

12/25/2002: northern suburbs got 5-7. Not well forecasted.

Here are some more without details

3/9/99

2/25/2007 to some extent

1/10/99 to some extent

11/11/87

Probably forgetting a few more.

 

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

42 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

January 2000 is the ultimate example of a positive bust in our area. The storm was predicted to go out to sea but instead continued northward and dumped over a foot of snow across much of the area. As @MillvilleWx alluded to, NWP models have substantially increased in accuracy since then, so such a large-scale bust likely won't happen again. November 1987 I imagine was a similar type of positive bust.

November 2018 is also a good recent example: the storm ended up colder than expected, so areas along I-95 and north and west got quite a bit more than forecast.

December 2013 is a different case since that was the result of a mesoscale band in an area of strong convergence. - those types of busts can still happen as models have still have difficulty pinpointing the magnitude and location of those bands. Just ask Binghamton, for example. In February 2009, there was an inverted trough that set up near Philly and dropped a surprise 8 inches over the city. 

The place where I could see a positive bust would be like the situation we had Monday. We had snow at elevations about 1000 feet higher here in Winchester. The ridges above that got at least a couple of inches while here we had mangled flakes for hours during heavy precip. Knock 3 degrees off those surface temps and a nothing event ends up as a 3” or more snow.