mdhokie Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: I won’t get into the intense banding that the 81 corridor/ish crowd will get but can make up for some of that with better ratios. Phin also pointed out the orographic enhancement that the globals won’t pick up on yet - and the upslope snow showers that will continue after the coastal moves away. But i think the bullseye will be somewhere in the 81 corridor-ish. This will be my first coastal since buying the place in late 2016 so will be interesting to learn climo out there for these events. Lucky for you, there will be more snow in Oakland this winter Yea will be interesting to see how coastals do up there. Ive already noticed snow is just easier to come by and it sticks around longer. Scheduled to be back in the area on Sunday, hopefully will be a scenic drive coming from the west. I'll probably be sick of snow by the end of the season... naaaaaaaa! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 51 minutes ago, nj2va said: I won’t get into the intense banding that the 81 corridor/ish crowd will get but can make up for some of that with better ratios. Phin also pointed out the orographic enhancement that the globals won’t pick up on yet - and the upslope snow showers that will continue after the coastal moves away. But i think the bullseye will be somewhere in the 81 corridor-ish. This will be my first coastal since buying the place in late 2016 so will be interesting to learn climo out there for these events. Lucky for you, there will be more snow in Oakland this winter Its pretty amazing that Deep Creek hasnt seen a big coastal since 2016... You would think that would have been a near miss/ rainer for the Cities that dumped up there.. but that tells you just how bad it has been.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 53 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest Gfs run is a pure money shot If I were you I wouldnt worry about a thing... this is basically a lock for Carrol County! Even with the worst run (18z gfs) you still got warning level snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I'm a kid in a candy store right now y'all. Like, I moved here in 2016. All but one of my winters has been <12" total. I have never experienced a legitimate, shut everything down snowstorm in my life. My divorce is on Wednesday. I've been waiting for it to go through for 2 years. The custody decision will happen via zoom Wednesday. If Wednesday is the day I finally get my snowstorm, I may get custody of my child and then my first major winter storm on the same day. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 9:29 PM, nw baltimore wx said: Just so you know, I’m still thrilled with the roof. When the virus has died down, I’d enjoy having the gangster pool players over for a lesson in humility, including you, @losetoa6, and @ravensrule. I seem to recall a conversation where you and RR played at that serious place a few blocks from here. Unfortunately, here we play for nickels. And free beer. I haven’t played in 25 years but I would love to dust off my huge stick. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Sounds about right for the mid Atlantic wheel of emotions...worries bubbling up about a SE trend hours after the worry was a north trend that turned everyone mixing.can I have the SE trend? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 can I have the SE trend? Asking for a friend. Nope. Nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Nope. Nwdarn. It was worth an ask. Never know what’ll happen unless you ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The best way I've learned to try and not be so jumpy during these things is I set a reasonable yet cautious bar for accumulations with a low and a high side. Until this gets locked in as long as the solution falls within my range I don't get too worked up. Now if a total rainer rears its head today I'll probably be disappointed and if all models settle on a bomb then i'll raise my expectations. For now my low is 3" with lots of sleet/rain my high is 8" mostly snow. ETA: yes I slumped my shoulders when I read the Euro pbp...I don't care how objective or reasonable you are if you love snow that was a burning hemmeroid run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: The best way I've learned to try and not be so jumpy during these things is I set a reasonable yet cautious bar for accumulations with a low and a high side. Until this gets locked in as long as the solution falls within my range I don't get too worked up. Now if a total rainer rears its head today I'll probably be disappointed and if all models settle on a bomb then i'll raise my expectations. For now my low is 3" with lots of sleet/rain my high is 8" mostly snow. Meanwhile, Ji is running low on Valium 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Meanwhile, Ji is running low on Valium You have to admire his commitment to stay in character for so long as board disrupter douchnozzle in chief. It almost makes you wonder if that's how he is in real life. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It’s bad enough to see model runs that have gross ass cut offs for snow. And then when you add on posts that 4 yr olds would look at and say “dude, get a grip,” it make reading threads less fun. euro gave me 1:1 rates, thread gave me 1:4 good/bad post rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 And thanks again to @MillvilleWx for adding kick ass technical info to balance out the Jimania 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: The best way I've learned to try and not be so jumpy during these things is I set a reasonable yet cautious bar for accumulations with a low and a high side. Until this gets locked in as long as the solution falls within my range I don't get too worked up. Now if a total rainer rears its head today I'll probably be disappointed and if all models settle on a bomb then i'll raise my expectations. For now my low is 3" with lots of sleet/rain my high is 8" mostly snow. ETA: yes I slumped my shoulders when I read the Euro pbp...I don't care how objective or reasonable you are if you love snow that was a burning hemmeroid run. If you're going to be this reasonable I don't think we have a place for you here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: The best way I've learned to try and not be so jumpy during these things is I set a reasonable yet cautious bar for accumulations with a low and a high side. Until this gets locked in as long as the solution falls within my range I don't get too worked up. Now if a total rainer rears its head today I'll probably be disappointed and if all models settle on a bomb then i'll raise my expectations. For now my low is 3" with lots of sleet/rain my high is 8" mostly snow. ETA: yes I slumped my shoulders when I read the Euro pbp...I don't care how objective or reasonable you are if you love snow that was a burning hemmeroid run. It blows when a couple days of runs sets your expectations of seeing 8-12” of mostly/all snow only for a couple of subsequent runs forcing you to extrapolate the RGEM to see whether you’ll get an inch of deform after 8 hours of pouring rain, during which time folks north of us are reporting disgusting totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Coming in here today and breaking up the snow party for just a bit to say the younger Miss J overcame her nerves and took the blue yesterday at her 2nd IEA show. IEA (Interscholastic Equestrian Association) is a group that rewards horsemanship, skills and equitation. You are part of a team and compete individually. The riders get assigned a horse based on their ability. And they get up with no schooling and go in the ring cold. And do not get to use their own tack. Her first show last month she was assigned an Arab who she had trouble with in the canter. The only class she is in is the Walk Trot Canter HS division because she excels at Equitation. She is her teams Ace in the Hole because of her Eq, and she felt horrible that she let them and herself down due to her nerves. Well the horse she pulled yesterday was a forward moving Quarter Pony mare. And she nailed it! Super proud of her for pushing through and proving to herself that she is capable and a darn good rider with the skills to ride anything. Back to your regularly scheduled snow programming. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The worst 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Eps coming in a bit colder . A bit better confluence to the ne . Maybe noise but .. Better check with @PivotPoint on this first 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ji won’t be happy with Ellinwood’s map. “Leesburg is basically the new 95” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: It blows when a couple days of runs sets your expectations of seeing 8-12” of mostly/all snow only for a couple of subsequent runs forcing you to extrapolate the RGEM to see whether you’ll get an inch of deform after 8 hours of pouring rain, during which time folks north of us are reporting disgusting totals. Good runs def jade some of us that mix more so that makes bad runs like the euro suck. What gets me is that you get a bad euro and it causes everyone who should know better to freak out. Let’s be real. Even the worst euro run still gets the usual places a foot of snow. They have zero reason to fret. While we get rain to wash off all the brining they are all snow. They stay all snow. Even when it lulls on radar they stay snow. They get snow when we have sunshine. They even get the birds to shit snow to add to their totals. They stay so cold that the snow comes from the ground up, goes into the air and falls as more snow. But they complain and worry. While I look at RadarScope and see yellows and my wx station says 35.1° and I see the spot in my yard fill with water. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yep.. looks even worse this morning for snow here. Kinda thought that's how it would work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I still feel good that at least my bet with Randall looks safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 We need a 'pick me up' from Roger Smith. He will save the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Still feeling good about our rainstorm south and east of the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Really? Does the rain stay mainly on the plain? @MN Transplant bad joke there good sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 37 minutes ago, H2O said: Good runs def jade some of us that mix more so that makes bad runs like the euro suck. What gets me is that you get a bad euro and it causes everyone who should know better to freak out. Let’s be real. Even the worst euro run still gets the usual places a foot of snow. They have zero reason to fret. While we get rain to wash off all the brining they are all snow. They stay all snow. Even when it lulls on radar they stay snow. They get snow when we have sunshine. They even get the birds to shit snow to add to their totals. They stay so cold that the snow comes from the ground up, goes into the air and falls as more snow. But they complain and worry. While I look at RadarScope and see yellows and my wx station says 35.1° and I see the spot in my yard fill with water. It’s a competition between you and MN Transplant for who has the saddest obs during these events. I could easily see this thing being wire-to-wire rain for you if we miss the CCB snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 With this year’s move to telework (even for projects requiring a clearance) and the possibility of moving to a new project with 100% telework, I’d absolutely love to move west - for both a little more space and a little more snow. The problem is that our neighborhood is about the most idyllic you could imagine for the kids, wife, and me, so there’s basically no way we’re leaving. Good problem to have, I suppose! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 We may never get snow in this neck of the woods- but man is it beautiful here today. Sunny and headed to near 70. the beach life is good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 37 minutes ago, yoda said: Really? Does the rain stay mainly on the plain? @MN Transplant bad joke there good sir "Heavens, what a sound!!" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yoda is a bot programmed to give pbp for every model run of every model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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