Newman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: Lehigh Valley, even upper bucks/montco.... 12z euro says don't give up on Monday yet either Verbatim BL temps are 33-35. So would need some decent rates for accumulation. Perhaps a C-1" as an appetizer before the big dog Wednesday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Meh 12z CMC totals or this storm is a disappointment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Guidance hinting 2020 may go out with a bang. Active asf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, Newman said: Verbatim BL temps are 33-35. So would need some decent rates for accumulation. Perhaps a C-1" as an appetizer before the big dog Wednesday? Yeah, i was surprised to see it spit out so much but definitely won't be 10:1.. no high in place either. I think we all agree that Wednesday is the main event, do you think we want Monday weaker or stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Newman said: Verbatim BL temps are 33-35. So would need some decent rates for accumulation. Perhaps a C-1" as an appetizer before the big dog Wednesday? Some elevation will help.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Just now, The Iceman said: Yeah, i was surprised to see it spit out so much but definitely won't be 10:1.. no high in place either. I think we all agree that Wednesday is the main event, do you think we want Monday weaker or stronger? I'd actually prefer it stronger under one condition: it doesn't slow down in the process. We need enough wave spacing to allow for a recovery for the mid-week system. So a weaker Monday system would probably mean a faster in-and-out. But in the end, it doesn't matter as long as it doesn't slow down and screw up the storm for Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 12z CMC totals or this storm is a disappointment My expectations are tempered for now. Nice to have something under 7 days to track. You know as well as I how hard it is to have a bullseye hold for 3 days let alone 5 or 6. Thats an eternity. Pattern is woofing but I am not sold on any one solution just yet. 12z suite has shown quite a range of solutions....a cold rain, a nothing burger, and a blizzard. It is encouraging to see 2 out of the 3 big models with hits. Another couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Yeah, i was surprised to see it spit out so much but definitely won't be 10:1.. no high in place either. I think we all agree that Wednesday is the main event, do you think we want Monday weaker or stronger? Monday is our 50/50 under the block for mid week. Strong but steady moving is the ticket. Eta: ninja'd by @Newman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 18z gfs was decent. 5-8 for the area. storm feels legit.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 18z GEFS coming in very nice as well. SE PA jackpot 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 25 minutes ago, Newman said: 18z GEFS coming in very nice as well. SE PA jackpot The JV squad are on board as well (ICON, NAVGEM, JMA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I weenied up and got a weather model.com subscription just to get the 18z euro... Shows snow down to 95 now for Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 22 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I weenied up and got a weather model.com subscription just to get the 18z euro... Shows snow down to 95 now for Monday. Seems too aggressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Seems too aggressive... It’s wrong for the city. Maybe some snow in the normal elevated burbs, butbIt’s showing snow with temps above freezing at 925 etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: It’s wrong for the city. Maybe some snow in the normal elevated burbs, butbIt’s showing snow with temps above freezing at 925 etc Yeah. I'm thinking upper Mont/Bucks may see a little something but Lehigh Valley has a good shot. I may see a couple sloppy flakes but that's about it. I don't really care....it's all about Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 0z NAM now with the Monday system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Newman said: 0z NAM now with the Monday system as well. Monday is looking more and more interesting out this way. Watch Monday be the bigger system of this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Monday is looking more and more interesting out this way. Watch Monday be the bigger system of this week. Things are going our way too much...it's hard to believe. It seems each model run (Mon/Wed events) just confirms the previous one, sometimes better. I'll just enjoy the ride... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Things are going our way too much...it's hard to believe. It seems each model run (Mon/Wed events) just confirms the previous one, sometimes better. I'll just enjoy the ride... Yep. Going to be an interesting week. Would be thrilled to score a few inches of snow by this time Thursday night. Would be disappointing to whiff on both but tbh I wouldn't be shocked. Unlikely, but again, we fail rather well in recent years. Would be just as shocked to score something out of both. Again, not being greedy. Just whiten the ground a bit and let it feel like the holidays and I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 15 minutes ago, Newman said: 0z NAM now with the Monday system as well. More after this Nice little secs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Monday is looking more and more interesting out this way. Watch Monday be the bigger system of this week. Keep reading...it to warm to snow or it’s a white rain from the no it all’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep. Going to be an interesting week. Would be thrilled to score a few inches of snow by this time Thursday night. Would be disappointing to whiff on both but tbh I wouldn't be shocked. Unlikely, but again, we fail rather well in recent years. Would be just as shocked to score something out of both. Again, not being greedy. Just whiten the ground a bit and let it feel like the holidays and I'm happy. Snow on snow before Christmas....that would be sweet. Yeah, I just want some snow on the ground. It makes the outdoor lights look that much better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Birds~69 said: Snow on snow before Christmas....that would be sweet. Yeah, I just want some snow on the ground. It makes the outdoor lights look that much better. Need a sold dump at a minimum of 5 inches Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, Animal said: Need a sold dump at a minimum of 5 inches Wednesday. Depending on location, that's definitely doable as of now. Anything Monday would be a bonus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Animal said: Keep reading...it to warm to snow or it’s a white rain from the no it all’s. I saw that. I guess they don't know things can change 3 days out. Temps are close...won't take much adjustment one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 ICON is in the Euro and NAM camp now for Monday. Even more amped up look on the TT site. Seeing some really different looks now as lead time lessens.. Rain to thump of slushy accum snow for most. We take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON is in the Euro and NAM camp now for Monday. Even more amped up look on the TT site. Seeing some really different looks now as lead time lessens.. Rain to thump of slushy accum snow for most. We take? Of course! I always like rain to snow events....the changeover is a adrenaline rush. On the flip side snow to rain is major depression... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 0z GFS joins the party. (shared from @NorthArlington101 in the MA forum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 With growing media hype for the storm next wed-thur people are gonna be freaking out confused if it snows 3-5" Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: With growing media hype for the storm next wed-thur people are gonna be freaking out confused if it snows 3-5" Monday Did my shopping tonight. I can only imagine the stores next week, week before Christmas, major storm incoming, and in the grips of a pandemic. Can you say completely wiped shelves?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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