Animal Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: EPS mean qpf VERY impressive with a 6" snowfall mean even in my central Bucks neighborhood. Morning afd from mt holly. Monday depending on track of 1st low rain...some snow may be possible northern perimeter. wednesday - hedging bets rain south and a mix bag north.. need to check back frequently it was noted as the Monday storm track is still to early to call!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: EPS mean qpf VERY impressive with a 6" snowfall mean even in my central Bucks neighborhood. I honestly didn't know the eps mean went that high after the last few winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 12z CMC SMOKES Philly this run lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Newman said: 12z CMC SMOKES Philly this run lol Yeah but you know this isn't gonna happen. I hope but we're 5 days away....Euro will probably piss us off in a little bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 It’s all downhill from here on that run lmao 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Yup, nothing like being in the bull's eye 6 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Yeah but you know this isn't gonna happen. I hope but we're 5 days away....Euro will probably piss us off in a little bit. CMC is the high end perfect situation. On the other side we have the UKIE which is a weak nothing burger, and the ICON which is mainly a Rainer. It is good to see the GFS and GEFS (also a darn near perfect track for PHL and closeby) honking. Still a long way out. Im torn whether the early seasonal trend of tracking farther N and W with slp will verify OR if as I mentioned yesterday the -AO/-NAO help us out. Decent CAD look appearing also which tends to show more as lead times lessen traditionally. I would think guidance will continue to show several varying solutions and p-type thru AT LEAST early Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, Newman said: That map deserves a 5 bun salute Would be one hell of a birthday though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: It’s all downhill from here on that run lmao 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Yup, nothing like being in the bull's eye 6 days out. Neither of you are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Taken almost 5 years for a map like that one for Philly <7 days away January 2016 of course. Savor the digital fantasy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I'm happy and giddy now but I won't take anything super serious till Monday with somewhat agreement among models. Like others, I've been down this road waaayyyy too many times.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Long range forecasting is headed for a bust of epic proportions this December, what value do analogs have now with a changing planet/ base state? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I'm happy and giddy now but I won't take anything super serious till Monday with somewhat agreement among models. Like others, I've been down this road waaayyyy too many times.... Yepper. If we had no hits and a bunch of swings and misses or cutters we would all be saying we have 6 days to change. There's no rule ( @RedSky please confirm via the weenie handbook) that this cant turn into a disaster still. Definitely need to wait until Sunday but more likely Monday before dusting off the champagne bottles. Tuesday AM we can put on ice. Tuesday PM we can pop corks.....hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Long range forecasting is headed for a bust of epic proportions this December, what value do analogs have now with a changing planet/ base state? Take it with a grain of salt. I think the attacks on the PV is messing with the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yepper. If we had no hits and a bunch of swings and misses or cutters we would all be saying we have 6 days to change. There's no rule ( @RedSky please confirm via the weenie handbook) that this cant turn into a disaster still. Definitely need to wait until Sunday but more likely Monday before dusting off the champagne bottle. Tuesday AM we can put on ice. Tuesday PM we can pop corks.....hopefully. Consult your handbook I know you have one, that's a top 10 rule - The model that shows a train wreck solution is the most likely to verify 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Canadian hammers the southern snow belt of philly metro!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 52 minutes ago, Newman said: Archive this map!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 13 minutes ago, RedSky said: Consult your handbook I know you have one, that's a top 10 rule - The model that shows a train wreck solution is the most likely to verify Thank you for your research. I had a handbook but threw it in the firepit last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thank you for your research. I had a handbook but threw it in the firepit last winter. They do make for fine kindling, which is why I always keep a case in the garage. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 ECM is looking like a beast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Dear Lord, Euro Incoming!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Euro is incredible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 12z ECM is the healing balm for 2020 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z ECM is the healing balm for 2020 lol For today. We're going to get buzz-killed on one of these runs and contemplate jumping off the Ben Franklin....it's just a matter of when. I'm taking nothing serious till Monday.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 10 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z ECM is the healing balm for 2020 lol 3rd low near Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 My inner weenie is saying, "the models like to sniff out the big dogs early." My Debbie Downer is saying, "11 more chances for Dr. No to change his opinion." At least there's something to track. We haven't been able to say that for a few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 1 minute ago, JTA66 said: My inner weenie is saying, "the models like to sniff out the big dogs early." My Debbie Downer is saying, "11 more chances for Dr. No to change his opinion." At least there's something to track. We haven't been able to say that for a few years. I just want to see a road snow covered! Maybe a plow truck? I'm a simple guy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Lehigh Valley, even upper bucks/montco.... 12z euro says don't give up on Monday yet either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 27 minutes ago, Newman said: Euro is incredible Meh, I've seen better day 6 charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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