Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, RedSky said: A little too much enthusiasm here the ECM isn't even out yet to see if it can hold a storm for a second run Ji? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Stolen from Weather Will over in the Mid Atlantic Forum... Some really nice hits on the GEFS( Give me p09 and call it a winter lol) but also shows the wide range of uncertainty which is to be expected this far out. Overall though the look up top looks good for an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Ji? In 45 minutes I will know if it's stolen my snow again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Just now, RedSky said: In 45 minutes I will know if it's stolen my snow again Think positive! Many runs and no sleep. You're in a favorable location... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 -AO and -NAO are locked in thru the majority of both the GEFS and GEPS runs. PAC also shows noted improvement during the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 ECM is going to be similar to 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Euro is a big hit, especially NW of the fall line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM is going to be similar to 0z Or better? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Or better? Better for Philly and a classic I95'er 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Better for Philly and a classic I95'er Main takeaway from 12z suite....stronger confluence, HP, and CAD. Even a thump to taint in mid Dec is a win IMHO. Promising sign for the winter. Last 3 seasons the pattern was dictated by mid Dec and was crud. Reversal this year. Solar minimum ftmfw! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 DT honking for N of PA turnpike. Would be nice to get one of those classic N and W of the city events. Been a long time. They were so common years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Maybe this is why Glenn Hurricane didn't do a winter outlook we get to use last years now lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro is a big hit, especially NW of the fall line. Not much in the southern snow belt of philly..any ticks n&w its ova Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Amazing what good blocking and and upper level chest pieces in all the right places can do with a none too impressive cold air source 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Animal said: Not much in the southern snow belt of philly..any ticks n&w its ova Could go either way, but with a -AO/-NAO tandem in place, I will take my chances. If the look up.top holds, I expect the CAD look to increase and the setup to slowly tick colder as the event gets closer. Good to see this type of setup tho. But before buying gas for the snowblower or 20 pounds of ice melt, need to remind myself this is 6 days out and much could change. But great to have an actual trackable event. Feeling somewhat optimistic on this one given the looks up top....if they hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 As a side note, when was the last time we had a topic tagged as "hot" in this subforum? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Could go either way, but with a -AO/-NAO tandem in place, I will take my chances. If the look up.top holds, I expect the CAD look to increase and the setup to slowly tick colder as the event gets closer. Good to see this type of setup tho. But before buying gas for the snowblower or 20 pounds of ice melt, need to remind myself this is 6 days out and much could change. But great to have an actual trackable event. Feeling somewhat optimistic on this one given the looks up top....if they hold. Agree. down in the south..we track rain... any snow is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As a side note, when was the last time we had a topic tagged as "hot" in this subforum? Should keep greenskeeper busy... Hopefully good times ahead! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Feels good to be back in here with a legitimate threat. Model agreement is nice to see but always leaves room for things to go wrong, as always. Here's to a hopefully happy week of tracking for all! Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 EPS mean stolen from MA forum. Wow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 LV will get something at least. We have been in the bullseye for the CMC, Euro and GFS in todays runs for at least 6" or more. To see model agreement 7 days out is a nice change. I just hope they all do not agree to take it ups the Apps or out to sea in later runs. If its an inland runner, dam I hate cold rains. If the LP sits over the Chesapeake Bay area, big time snows accumulations when it goes negative tilt for NW of the fall line- can you say CCB set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Should keep greenskeeper busy... Hopefully good times ahead! I post in here sporadically, living in Lancaster county my "home" isn't really Central PA nor is it in this sub forum. But I do like to post on weather that's moving west to east to provide insight to you good folks on what might be heading your way. I hope that's okay, but I have to ask... Why is there a weenie tag put on almost every comment by that poster? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 18z ICON has some accumulating snow for the NW burbs on Monday fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: I post in here sporadically, living in Lancaster county my "home" isn't really Central PA nor is it in this sub forum. But I do like to post on weather that's moving west to east to provide insight to you good folks on what might be heading your way. I hope that's okay, but I have to ask... Why is there a weenie tag put on almost every comment by that poster? He's semi-selective, but you'll probably get one for this post, lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 greenskeeper spends all his time posting on the Eagles board 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 10, 2020 Share Posted December 10, 2020 Here's hoping for a better winter than last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I would be shocked if the storm hits as the euro &12z gfs indicated today. very rare that a storm locks in 6-7 days out as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 GFS with a southeastern jog, CMC gets on board ensembles look good, ECM a tight coastal favors I78 N&W. Somewhere in the middle would be very good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 still in the bullseye 9" for the LV on the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Albedoman said: still in the bullseye 9" for the LV on the ECM EPS mean qpf VERY impressive with a 6" snowfall mean even in my central Bucks neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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