Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, RedSky said: Sure you have the right GEM the GFS blockbuster is barely a burp Wrong run cache sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 UKMET is a big hit on Tuesday. Cache cleared, that is legit. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 29 minutes ago, RedSky said: Sure you have the right GEM the GFS blockbuster is barely a burp Yea cmc doesn’t have wave separation with the tpv so it gets all fooked. Meanwhile the Ukie is a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: UKMET is a big hit on Tuesday. Cache cleared, that is legit. Seems odd though how often do you see a snow event with snow all the way out to upstate ny and here at the same time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obd2011 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 South central pa here! Our forecast for this wed-fri thing went from 10-15 36 hrs ago to 4-8, then 1-3, then dusting of full out nothingburger. Now back up to 3-6 in last few hrs. Snow started steady at 7:45 with no mixing & holding steady. Looks like a coastal low has exploded off the southern Carolina coast since 9pm & is on the move from what im seeing on the latest satellite imagery? What the cheese is going on? I recall seeing one model back on Monday runs showing this outcome but it was swiftly tossed in the trash bin... bernie rayno said storm likely wouldn’t make it much further north than the mason Dixon line, but clearly that scenario proved bust bc its pounding here in cumberland county. I don’t see a southern shift on radar. Thoughts?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Obd2011 said: South central pa here! Our forecast for this wed-fri thing went from 10-15 36 hrs ago to 4-8, then 1-3, then dusting of full out nothingburger. Now back up to 3-6 in last few hrs. Snow started steady at 7:45 with no mixing & holding steady. Looks like a coastal low has exploded off the southern Carolina coast since 9pm & is on the move from what im seeing on the latest satellite imagery? What the cheese is going on? I recall seeing one model back on Monday runs showing this outcome but it was swiftly tossed in the trash bin... bernie rayno said storm likely wouldn’t make it much further north than the mason Dixon line, but clearly that scenario proved bust bc its pounding here in cumberland county. I don’t see a southern shift on radar. Thoughts?? This is WAA - warm air advection snow from a weak wave of low pressure and not associated with a primary off the coast, that will develop out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obd2011 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Thank you for the response! Much Appreciated:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 ICON which has been pretty decent lately is certainly threatening for Tuesday. Low 20s and raining. Coastal taking shape earlier with weaker primary. Nice airmass just North to be tapped. I guess the Euro shot the bed on this threat or people just kicked the old fallen King to the curb? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON which has been pretty decent lately is certainly threatening for Tuesday. Low 20s and raining. Coastal taking shape earlier with weaker primary. Nice airmass just North to be tapped. I guess the Euro shot the bed on this threat or people just kicked the old fallen King to the curb? I still think this trends more east. I doubt many areas will see widespread ice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I still think this trends more east. I doubt many areas will see widespread ice. I agree. The key in that post I made...weaker primary faster redevelopment. Matches seasonal trend with ICON sniffing it early and others following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I agree. The key in that post I made...weaker primary faster redevelopment. Matches seasonal trend with ICON sniffing it early and others following. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Check out the temps during the storm. Teens. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Check out the temps during the storm. Teens. Yes sir. Never a doubt. Once I saw the GGEM squash the entire event I knew the cutter was off the table and the seasonal trend was still alive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Looks like after our Heather A event Tuesday the pattern reloads with a cutter late week (that one is probably real with the HL blocking reloading) then the next big longwave threat with the pattern back in place is being signaled Feb 24-28. But let's get thru Sat-Sun then Tues first. Who knows, maybe the reload is faster or even just a mirage/head fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like after our Heather A event Tuesday the pattern reloads with a cutter late week (that one is probably real with the HL blocking reloading) then the next big longwave threat with the pattern back in place is being signaled Feb 24-28. But let's get thru Sat-Sun then Tues first. Who knows, maybe the reload is faster or even just a mirage/head fake. If we get a flush hit by the HA event, we could likely take a full grinch washout and still have snowpack in place for late month... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Its cool to see the HL pattern that was in place back in late Oct/early Nov popping up again on the ens means as we get later into winter. When I posted my winter thoughts back then I stated a huge key to the success of this winter is how the Scandinavian ridging feeds the NAO ridge or if it remains over in Scandinavia with no effect. It was evident at that time we had a higher chance than normal at getting sustained HL blocking in the AO/NAO regions as Scandinavia is a normalized area that tends to feed the NAO as a retogression. Just cool to see how firm that ridging remained as a background state, how it played out, and how we are seeing it showing up again late season. March could be a roller coaster ride this year with at least one chance for a March winter storm, if not more. What a season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: If we get hit by the HA event, we could likely take a full grinch washout and still have snowpack in place for late month... Where has Heisy been? This was/is his storm. Maybe he knows something we don't? Or maybe he has tracking fatigue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GEPS and GEFS both have a 50/50 signal in place on their means from Day 9 til the end of their runs. Thats pretty good agreement on a smoothed means from 2 pieces of guidance at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Where has Heisy been? This was/is his storm. Maybe he knows something we don't? Or maybe he has tracking fatigue? I’m here haha was up late sticking my head out windows and walking around the block like a nut. I was pretty down on it after a few of those EPS runs but even the 6z made a nice jog SE. I appreciate the credit it was kind of how I saw the pattern progressing. Sucks the para stopped running again it looked good at the end of its run last nights. Let’s keep working on the spacing and we’re good to go. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Don’t have H5 yet but icon is farther SE. 12z NAM also looked like it wanted to do a CMC progression. Would be seasonal trend. Man the euro is hot garbage right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Don’t have H5 yet but icon is farther SE. 12z NAM also looked like it wanted to do a CMC progression. Would be seasonal trend. Man the euro is hot garbage right now I'm going to reiterate what I said yesterday. I am more concerned that if we fail Tuesday it will be due to suppression or the system being squashed under the PV than rain and a cutter. Actually wouldn't mind a lightish event while the Mid Atlantic gets hammered. They are running out of time and beyond due. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm going to reiterate what I said yesterday. I am more concerned that if we fail Tuesday it will be due to suppression or the system being squashed under the PV than rain and a cutter. Actually wouldn't mind a lightish event while the Mid Atlantic gets hammered. They are running out of time and beyond due. Agreed. I bet we get a weenie gfs run at 12z as it ticks SE like rest of guidance. I hope at least. Give me 6 hours of bliss lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Saturday evening is just a nuisance light icing event on the ECM and UKMET but they have been awful even in short range. The NAM isn't much of anything either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: Saturday evening is just a nuisance light icing event on the ECM and UKMET but they have been awful even in short range. The Saturday into Sunday storm is the only one I DON’T want to happen, as I have to go to the store to pick up something important Sunday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, mattinpa said: The Saturday into Sunday storm is the only one I DON’T want to happen, as I have to go to the store to pick up something important Sunday. Looks light end nuisance, new GFS is 1" snow and no ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 39 minutes ago, RedSky said: Looks light end nuisance, new GFS is 1" snow and no ice Refresher...works for me. Hoping for a very cool and rainy (perhaps some snow?) Spring.....we are always screwed during Summer w/HHH at some point though. 32F / Overcast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Current temp is 21 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 21F, Mt Holly's AFD this morning they don't seemed concerned at all about this weekend storm with less than an inch of snow and ice accrual less than .25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Looks like the high amplitude phase 7 MJO wave is having more effect than we originally thought. If we didn't have the ao/nao in place, we'd be making a run at the 70s.. the Arctic blast that had been delayed and delayed now looks like barely below normal once it reaches here. Tues threat has devolved overnight to where plain rain is looking like a legit threat for many now because the se ridge pumping. It's a good thing we made out during this 2 week period because it looks like our snow threats are coming to an end. Average snowfall in a moderate nina is pretty good though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Looks like the high amplitude phase 7 MJO wave is having more effect than we originally thought. If we didn't have the ao/nao in place, we'd be making a run at the 70s.. the Arctic blast that had been delayed and delayed now looks like barely below normal once it reaches here. Tues threat has devolved overnight to where plain rain is looking like a legit threat for many now because the se ridge pumping. It's a good thing we made out during this 2 week period because it looks like our snow threats are coming to an end. Average snowfall in a moderate nina is pretty good though. It’s only Feb 12. I don’t think our snow threats are over. Hopefully the Tuesday threat got as far north as it is getting and goes south now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now