The Iceman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 7:05 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: It is a flat ridge, but its there. It was supposed to be raging with the Nina. But we luckily have had the -NAM state working for us to counter it. If the ridge was non-existent we would be congratulating NC/SC. But as we've seen countless times recently, there is a battle going on between the -NAO and that SER reflection. And subsequently every system has come N. I personally don't buy the squashed look on the Euro. Not suggesting every wave comes N and flush hits us....but I am anxious to see the battle that ensues in the atmosphere over the next 10 days between those features I mentioned. Expand Shhhh let the mid atlantic weenies think they are sitting pretty again I agree with you, I'm more concerned about the ridge flexing bringing us mix/rain chances over suppression. This is way different from the suppressed/sheared out pattern of January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 6:33 PM, RedSky said: 12z ECM for this weeks 4 waves, and half of SEPA total is Sunday mix The Hopewell dry slot strikes back lol Expand What an evil, evil model. First the aforementioned No Hope-well dry slot, and second it is jackpotting VA/DC in the mid range again. Wonder how it'll play out for them I still like 3-6" region wide Wednesday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 7:16 PM, The Iceman said: Shhhh let the mid atlantic weenies think they are sitting pretty again I agree with you, I'm more concerned about the ridge flexing bringing us mix/rain chances over suppression. This is way different from the suppressed/sheared out pattern of January. Expand Don't taunt....might get a flag thrown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 7:05 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: It is a flat ridge, but its there. It was supposed to be raging with the Nina. But we luckily have had the -NAM state working for us to counter it. If the ridge was non-existent we would be congratulating NC/SC. But as we've seen countless times recently, there is a battle going on between the -NAO and that SER reflection. And subsequently every system has come N. I personally don't buy the squashed look on the Euro. Not suggesting every wave comes N and flush hits us....but I am anxious to see the battle that ensues in the atmosphere over the next 10 days between those features I mentioned. Expand This -NAO and that SER reflection is a bit like standing on one foot. Not super stable but it can still stay like that for awhile np at least until something pushes it over. The forecast looks snowy. I wonder why the Euro is having problems with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 So...just catchin up. Are we still expecting anything tonight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 8:38 PM, dssbss said: So...just catchin up. Are we still expecting anything tonight? Expand Coating to an inch possible. Nothing major though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 "December to remember" or "February to remember where 'ye!...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Does anyone have a blank PA map with county borders that would be good to make a weather forecast map out of? Can also include NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The 10 days of snows the ECM advertised a couple days ago is turning into a mirage 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 6:27 AM, RedSky said: The 10 days of snows the ECM advertised a couple days ago is turning into a mirage Expand People were so giddy about this period coming up for this week. It is turning into a dud At least I dont have to cancel my trip this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Can someone enlighten me with the 16-19th time frame? Our DTN Weather Sentry is screaming SECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 12:01 PM, Mikeymac5306 said: Can someone enlighten me with the 16-19th time frame? Our DTN Weather Sentry is screaming SECS. Expand This is the period after the pesky ULL finally moves off towards 50/50 region. The issue is lack of a pna ridge so the the trough axis isn’t great. Looks messy at this range but far out so well see. Models differ on handling of the ULL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Is 2/14/06 still showing up in the cips analogs for this weekend? Would be crazy to see another massive sleet storm 15 years later. The set up looks very icy and CAD will probably be severely underforecasted. Even if the low amplifies to our sw, I still think we'd see significant icing before tapering to light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Second day in a row w/o snow falling. Winter of azz! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 4:43 PM, JTA66 said: Second day in a row w/o snow falling. Winter of azz! Expand The day's not over yet. We may get blessed by a couple lazy flakes in the next hour or so...30F/cloudy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 4:58 PM, Birds~69 said: The day's not over yet. We may get blessed by a couple lazy flakes in the next hour or so...30F/cloudy. Expand Under those returns and not a flake. 12z GFS spit out the most grotesque conceivable two week run of cold rain even Dr. Evil couldn't have done it any better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Not a flake but, but I looked closer and......wait for it.......it's sleeting! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Very light mist here enough to agitate you. 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 5:11 PM, RedSky said: Under those returns and not a flake. 12z GFS spit out the most grotesque conceivable two week run of cold rain even Dr. Evil couldn't have done it any better. Expand It's shrinking/drying up as well. Just seen Allentown only received 1.1" and Bushkill 1.4". Overall just feel like we're going to get screwed w/all these little waves...underperformers. Only positive we'll have refreshers but nothing big and w/the cold air in place the snow isn't going anywhere... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I was 10F twelve hours ago, currently 29F with sleet and nary a flake. Almost an impossible feat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 5:19 PM, Birds~69 said: It's shrinking/drying up as well. Just seen Allentown only received 1.1" and Bushkill 1.4". Overall just feel like we're going to get screwed w/all these little waves...underperformers. Only positive we'll have refreshers but nothing big and w/the cold air in place the snow isn't going anywhere... Expand Even un-failable accu weather said snow on snow on snow this week right? What will family member say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 5:28 PM, RedSky said: Even un-failable accu weather said snow on snow on snow this week right? What will family member say Expand I already have snow on snow on snow. I had snow on the ground (small pile) from Dec 16th then we had 2 more recent snows. So I may end up w/ snow on snow on snow on snow on snow on snow by Sunday w/all these waves... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I remember a very similar scenario to this weeks 3-4 waves several years ago, I was drooling it was can't miss. Every wave went the wrong way and i got like 1" wish I knew the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I count 5 possible events in the next 10 days. Obviously we don't bat 1.000, but even if we bat .500 it'll be a great stretch. Plus the pattern doesn't look to be breaking down anytime soon so the threat train may continue into the end of the month into March. I really can't find anything to bitch about, we are pretty much at normal snowfall on the year and it's active AF. We won't miss every single one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Dr. No way just turned on the space solar power to the server another juggernaut run about to roll in 3...2...1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 5:28 PM, RedSky said: Even un-failable accu weather said snow on snow on snow this week right? What will family member say Expand I just checked AccuWeather for my location (Gap, Eastern Lancaster County) and it has doubled down on 6-10" here (61% probability). That seems...optimistic. Meanwhile, temperature has spiked to 37 here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 5:21 PM, RedSky said: I was 10F twelve hours ago, currently 29F with sleet and nary a flake. Almost an impossible feat. Expand Actually a simple feat...I remember a storm where we started at 3 degrees and 2 hours later it was 25 and IP and 1 hour later 27 and ZR....it of course has nothing to do with surface temps - there are no roadblocks to warmth above the surface. One of my favorite memories was in January 1994 when I was in King of Prussia and my thermometer read 24 degrees with heavy rain - the ZR accumulated as quick as I could chop it off my car - which at the time had those pop up lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 5:52 PM, Mshaffer526 said: I just checked AccuWeather for my location (Gap, Eastern Lancaster County) and it has doubled down on 6-10" here (61% probability). That seems...optimistic. Meanwhile, temperature has spiked to 37 here today. Expand You are in a slightly better spot being outside this weeks no-Hopewell SEPA dry slot good luck bro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 5:54 PM, ChescoWx said: Actually a simple feat...I remember a storm where we started at 3 degrees and 2 hours later it was 25 and IP and 1 hour later 27 and ZR....it of course has nothing to do with surface temps - there are no roadblocks to warmth above the surface. One of my favorite memories was in January 1994 when I was in King of Prussia and my thermometer read 24 degrees with heavy rain - the ZR accumulated as quick as I could chop it off my car - which at the time had those pop up lights. Expand I had 16F and rain in Horsham in 1994 I know it happens, I was expecting up to 1" snow today essentially WAA stuff before the warm air punched in. And now the sleet has changed to big puffy marshmallows lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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