The Iceman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Incoming on the euro. Every op 12z model has this long duration event setting up next week with Arctic air near by. Right now looks like a classic ice signal but that can evolve based on where the pc sets up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 41 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Incoming on the euro. Every op 12z model has this long duration event setting up next week with Arctic air near by. Right now looks like a classic ice signal but that can evolve based on where the pc sets up. Euro is against most other modeling and wants nothing to do with shifting the PV farther ESE. If it ismoving, it is extremely slow. Eta: Finally moves into the GL longitude by day 9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 We are torching today... Almost up to 50 in Trenton. Heavy meltdown. We're gonna need that 3-6" on Sunday to refresh the pack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Incoming on the euro. Every op 12z model has this long duration event setting up next week with Arctic air near by. Right now looks like a classic ice signal but that can evolve based on where the pc sets up. I like to do a few things in anticipation of a snowfall, but I'll probably leave the PC where I usually have it, and let the chips fall where they may. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, The Iceman said: We are torching today... Almost up to 50 in Trenton. Heavy meltdown. We're gonna need that 3-6" on Sunday to refresh the pack. Yep, 48F here....more than I anticipated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Liking the melt today but only a high of 46F, and this is likely the last time the temp is that high for two weeks . Can't even remember my last 50F. Crazy to go a month and not hit 50F on hot house Earth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Anyone else getting that feeling this month might be one we remember? Especially N and W areas. Seems like the atmosphere just wants to produce frozen. Now we are getting short range surprises popping up. The GFS 18z was a weenie run with threat after threat. My gut says we are on the good side of the pattern during prime climo for a change. Buckle up. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 OT but this just happened in my home kitchen. Green Curry Chicken Eggplant Snow Peas, Jasmine Rice 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: OT but this just happened in my home kitchen. Green Curry Chicken Eggplant Snow Peas, Jasmine Rice I'll pass, that looks like a plate of hell for me, especially considering I'm allergic to peas. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Long range ECM ripe with threats, the early January SSW event made winter go boom like no other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Long range ECM ripe with threats, the early January SSW event made winter go boom like no other. Looks like we have to watch Tuesday Feb 9th for a light threat. BL temps marginal. Most guidance showing precip centered over LV. Then there is a SECS potential brewing for Thursday. I think the Wentzadelphia system is still there next weekend but the look has degraded quite a bit in recent runs. Active tracking nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like we have to watch Tuesday Feb 9th for a light threat. BL temps marginal. Most guidance showing precip centered over LV. Then there is a SECS potential brewing for Thursday. I think the Wentzadelphia system is still there next weekend but the look has degraded quite a bit in recent runs. Active tracking nonetheless. The ensembles keep showing a colder solution for next weekends storm and the ops are starting to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Some of this is probably sleet, but check out this 00z eps snow mean for end of the run lol. Mjo you have the eps wxbell by chance? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 This is the Wentz storm time frame btw. Hope it can deliver. The big tpv has finally moved to 50/50 land. I’ll take my chances with this look! Just gotta get that pna ridge east a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Some of this is probably sleet, but check out this 00z eps snow mean for end of the run lol. Mjo you have the eps wxbell by chance? I have Stormvista just like you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: This is the Wentz storm time frame btw. Hope it can deliver. The big tpv has finally moved to 50/50 land. I’ll take my chances with this look! Just gotta get that pna ridge east a bit The ensembles are alot more favorable than the ops at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Wxsim with 6z data has a wintry week ahead with 13" to 20" of snow and ice during the week an then temps staying in the teens for highs next Saturday Sunday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 30. Wind east-northeast around 2 mph in the morning, becoming north-northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Wednesday night: Dense overcast, with light to moderate frost. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 25. Wind north-northwest near calm in the evening, becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Thursday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the morning. Snow likely in the morning, then a mix of snow and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 30. Wind chill around 21. Wind east around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 5 to 8 inches. Thursday night: Dense overcast, with areas of light frost likely. A chance of a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow in the evening, then a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Low 29, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill as low as 22. Wind east around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Friday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning, then a mix of rain and snow likely in the afternoon. High 35. Wind east around 7 mph in the morning, becoming north-northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Friday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming partly cloudy after midnight, with moderate to heavy frost. Snow likely. Breezy and cold. Low 16. Wind chill ranging from 8 to 26. Wind northwest around 15 mph, gusting to 26 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 4 to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Cmc has a really bad ice storm day 5. On top of that looks like 3-5” or so falls before the changeover, plus the freezing rain is overnight. Anyone have maps? Curious how much snow it has before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Cmc has a really bad ice storm day 5. On top of that looks like 3-5” or so falls before the changeover, plus the freezing rain is overnight. Anyone have maps? Curious how much snow it has before the changeover Tt maps but I'm sure this includes some of the changeover. Would be very nasty! 3-6" thump then .025"-.5" of ice. Cmc also has a small event on Tuesday for the northern half of the forum. This week should be fun, I see 3 threats this week where we have a decent shot at snow, then we still have your storm lurking in the distance next week. Plus none of the models really show the pattern breaking down any time soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Tt maps but I'm sure this includes some of the changeover. Would be very nasty! 3-6" thump then .025"-.5" of ice. Cmc also has a small event on Tuesday for the northern half of the forum. This week should be fun, I see 3 threats this week where we have a decent shot at snow, then we still have your storm lurking in the distance next week. Plus none of the models really show the pattern breaking down any time soon. Thanks, the 12z gfs has “the heisy” event I’ve been talking about. It tracks a bit inland at H5 but is a classic archambault timing event imo. This is when the ULL moves towards the 50/50 region and the block breaks down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Ice storms are usually uneventful if arctic air isn't in place, not far from freezing on the CMC and February sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Very windy here in Media gusts were just shaking the house 35-40 at times SW winds too there’s your Jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Weenie happy hour GFS run. Keeps confluence strong enough for wednesday night-Thursday. Might even be cold enough with next wave too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 23 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Weenie happy hour GFS run. Keeps confluence strong enough for wednesday night-Thursday. Might even be cold enough with next wave too Yeah, looking good through the 15th! Let's hope it's got the general idea correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 50 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Weenie happy hour GFS run. Keeps confluence strong enough for wednesday night-Thursday. Might even be cold enough with next wave too Storm apocalypse day 10-13 on the GFS is among my favorite all time fantasy runs as it destroys the south then the MA * The Valentine's massacre storm 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 hours ago, The Iceman said: Would be very nasty! 3-6" thump then .025"-.5" of ice. What year did this happen in the mid 2000s? I remember there being a 6ish inch event followed by so much ice that you could walk on top of the snowpack without breaking through. Made for some gnarly sledding carnage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said: What year did this happen in the mid 2000s? I remember there being a 6ish inch event followed by so much ice that you could walk on top of the snowpack without breaking through. Made for some gnarly sledding carnage. Valentine’s Day 2007 I believe 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 From the book of Ji- 0z GFS is a disaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 12 hours ago, The Iceman said: Tt maps but I'm sure this includes some of the changeover. Would be very nasty! 3-6" thump then .025"-.5" of ice. Cmc also has a small event on Tuesday for the northern half of the forum. This week should be fun, I see 3 threats this week where we have a decent shot at snow, then we still have your storm lurking in the distance next week. Plus none of the models really show the pattern breaking down any time soon. See a lot of people referencing 1994 on the ice. Normally I chuckle when I see 1994 mentions, the past few days though...can’t say I’m laughing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now