Snowcane21 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The 6z Euro just out is back to showing the storm in play. We now have the 6z suite making large NW adjustments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles302 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It will end up rain for Philly come Sunday. The northwest trend... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The massive cold shot next week is gone, the se ridge is clearly going to be a bigger deal than we thought. MJO phase 7 does favor that in February. Looking like one of those patterns where anything that amps will be mix/rain for 95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Eps is also more northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Snowcane21 said: As did the icon and NAM make major shifts NW. just noise or figuring out the pattern..... I stick by my original thoughts that for SE PA (most of this subforum) we are trying to thread a needle. It can happen, I'm not saying it can't. Just will be tough. Antecedent airmass is stale. If streams stay separate but the sw is strong and is north enough to spread precip, frozen will be confined N and W. A phase (which doesn't look likely until past our lat) would pump ridging out ahead in an already marginal airmass. And if the sw if flat and weak it either slides south or is a light event. Curiously, the ens members do have some better solution but they favor N and W. If we all want to cash in we want a medium strength sw that slides just under the region for a lightish event. Today's runs will be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The trend is real. I’m actually more worried about rain than OTS. As Walt drag says we need the cmc to come on board. This event reminds me of 2013-14 where every shortwave trended better at this range. I really think this ends up being a 6-10” event in the suburbs. These types of waves seem to always trend wetter and stronger. It’s pure stj & with today’s ocean temps expect a juicier system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: The trend is real. I’m actually more worried about rain than OTS. As Walt drag says we need the cmc to come on board. This event reminds me of 2013-14 where every shortwave trended better at this range. I really think this ends up being a 6-10” event in the suburbs. These types of waves seem to always trend wetter and stronger. It’s pure stj & with today’s ocean temps expect a juicier system Arctic fronts usually end up close to the coast. Lets all cash in once again. Next week's storm is trending away from a cutter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: The massive cold shot next week is gone, the se ridge is clearly going to be a bigger deal than we thought. MJO phase 7 does favor that in February. Looking like one of those patterns where anything that amps will be mix/rain for 95. I'm not so sure about that. MJO hasn't been a key driver this year like the last 2. The -NAM has been the key persistent driver with HL blocking being very stable and has bucked most Nina looks thus far not allowing the SE ridge to establish for extended periods. I mean, if the HL ridging is ever going to link up with the SE ridge and establish a mid/full lat persistent feature, mid Feb and onward would be the time. However, flopping of guidance tells me the 2nd SWE from mid Jan is beginning to show up at the trop with more HL blocking and guidance is struggling with that. Ironically we have just had our 3rd SWE of the season so we may enter another favorable period late month. For now, I'm siding with the seasonal trend and saying no major PV blasts, seasonal cold, and transient SE ridge with persistent HL blocking which would work for us as we r in prime climo. Im certainly not punting because of the MJO forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Sref is also further west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sref is also further west Thanks Ant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 There it is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Much more favorable upper jet, like substantially better. Puts us in the right entrance region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Damn, NAM is super nice...wasn't expecting that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Be very careful with BL guys. It is very close to being a big issue this run. Awesome to see though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Verbatim this looks like a classic heavy wet snow and then once it shuts off we drip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, Newman said: So does it keep trending NW! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 As Tombo pointed out on another forum this is like a SWFE here. Have a low near the lakes. If it can stay all snow I love these types. Heavy wet snow will stick to everything and then we drip. I like that it starts before dawn here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: As Tombo pointed out on another forum this is like a SWFE here. Have a low near the lakes. If it can stay all snow I love these types. Heavy wet snow will stick to everything and then we drip. I like that it starts before dawn here Yep, upper levels plenty cold. But surface is verbatim 32-33. Maybe it drops to 29-30 in the heaviest rates/those further NW. But we probably thump heavy snow 5-8" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said: So does it keep trending NW! lol 12z GFS and Euro will provide some insight if the NAM is on meds or the real deal... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z GFS and Euro will provide some insight if the NAM is on meds or the real deal...I would lean towards the NAM just doing NAM things too. After its handling of the last storm I could see taking this cautious... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, bpjones595 said: I would lean towards the NAM just doing NAM things too. After its handling of the last storm I could see taking this cautious... . Not really All the other models trended west at 6z. This might be real. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Nice trends with this event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Not really All the other models trended west at 6z. This might be real. Not saying it’s impossible, but it’s hard to take the NAM serious I think. Not completely trashed, just a cautious approach. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm not so sure about that. MJO hasn't been a key driver this year like the last 2. The -NAM has been the key persistent driver with HL blocking being very stable and has bucked most Nina looks thus far not allowing the SE ridge to establish for extended periods. I mean, if the HL ridging is ever going to link up with the SE ridge and establish a mid/full lat persistent feature, mid Feb and onward would be the time. However, flopping of guidance tells me the 2nd SWE from mid Jan is beginning to show up at the trop with more HL blocking and guidance is struggling with that. Ironically we have just had our 3rd SWE of the season so we may enter another favorable period late month. For now, I'm siding with the seasonal trend and saying no major PV blasts, seasonal cold, and transient SE ridge with persistent HL blocking which would work for us as we r in prime climo. Im certainly not punting because of the MJO forecast. It's also mostly been low amplitude or in the cod most of the winter. Much different than this wave which may get into high amplitude phase 7. Guidance almost unanimously backing off the big Arctic blast this upcoming week was a red flag that it may have more influence this month than it has seasonally and that the se ridge may not just be a transient feature. If that's the case, the favored areas would be the interior and New England even if we keep the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Rgem still wants nothing to do with Sunday. Not even a tick north from 06z. Icon still on board though it's mostly rain for 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Rgem still wants nothing to do with Sunday. Not even a tick north from 06z. Icon still on board though it's mostly rain for 95. Where is icon out? It just started running on SV, double check it’s not an old run fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Where is icon out? It just started running on SV, double check it’s not an old run fyi You're right, its an old run from tt, good catch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: You're right, its an old run from tt, good catch Np, normally it’s out by now it’s just delayed for some reason I’ll post it when SV has it out far enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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