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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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I haven't read Miller's journal article yet but I always considered a pure Miller A to be a storm that developed from a low originating in the southern stream, travels through the southern states or gulf and eventually redevelops off the coast from Georgia to NC.  If the low traveled up to Tennessee or Kentucky before transferring to the coast I considered it a Miller B hybrid.  A Miller B originates from a low in the northern stream, and when reaching Ohio, Kentucky or the Tennessee area, transfers to the coast from SC to NJ.

Now I'll read the journal article and see how wrong I am.   lol 

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22 minutes ago, wkd said:

I haven't read Miller's journal article yet but I always considered a pure Miller A to be a storm that developed from a low originating in the southern stream, travels through the southern states or gulf and eventually redevelops off the coast from Georgia to NC.  If the low traveled up to Tennessee or Kentucky before transferring to the coast I considered it a Miller B hybrid.  A Miller B originates from a low in the northern stream, and when reaching Ohio, Kentucky or the Tennessee area, transfers to the coast from SC to NJ.

Now I'll read the journal article and see how wrong I am.   lol 

If I read it correctly, even development off the coast is still a Miller A. Here is another PDF for more excellent reading. 

https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/bz-mrg.pdf

Definitely a Miller A

Screenshot_2021-02-03-11-23-56.png

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3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Mt holly wants nothing to do with it:

 


Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an
eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s
still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect
over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as
the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low
pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the
ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak
back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for
changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the
region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the
region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10
degrees below normal with highs in the 20s and lows in the
teens.

Sometimes I wonder if they write thes kinds of things as weenie fan service: "....still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance."

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19 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Significant retreat of the  "polar vortex" cold that was being shown for next week a couple days ago to normal cold, no complaints.

 

This is probably due to your age. I'll send you to my parents house w/the thermostat on 80, electric heater humming and electric blankets a must at all times.  :oldman:

Much complaints here, wanted highs in the teens/wind! Predicted highs are now up 8-10+ degrees from a couple days ago. Still cold but not super cold.

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31 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I wonder if that allows the southeast ridge to building sending out Souther miss Sunday back NW time will tell??

I was surprised that the end result did not bring back the Sunday coastal and instead it went the other way, you never know in this hobby

 

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The threat to watch out for is around Feb 13-15. @Wentzadelphia, take a look at the Para-GFS. It tries to pull a 96' with the vortex escaping into the 50/50 region, and a PNA spike bringing down another piece of energy that closes off in the center of the country. The only problem with this 12z run was it amps up way too early. Regardless, I'm on board with your February 10-17 call. It'll likely be centered around the 14th or 15th..

500h_anom.na.png

010718.thumb.png.8c810131277a9c2431efd6e614e6faf0.png

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16 minutes ago, Newman said:

The threat to watch out for is around Feb 13-15. @Wentzadelphia, take a look at the Para-GFS. It tries to pull a 96' with the vortex escaping into the 50/50 region, and a PNA spike bringing down another piece of energy that closes off in the center of the country. The only problem with this 12z run was it amps up way too early. Regardless, I'm on board with your February 10-17 call. It'll likely be centered around the 14th or 15th..

500h_anom.na.png

010718.thumb.png.8c810131277a9c2431efd6e614e6faf0.png

Ugh, I hope this is wrong.   I have to fly from Harrisburg to NC, then to OKC on the 12th lol. I don't care what it does after that then.  

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1 hour ago, Subliminal87 said:

Ugh, I hope this is wrong.   I have to fly from Harrisburg to NC, then to OKC on the 12th lol. I don't care what it does after that then.  

I just went through the whole flying thing. I was supposed to fly to Houston for job orientation, but the Chicago snow cancelled all flights into my O'Hare connection. Then the snow here finished it off. I'm hoping to go this weekend, but haven't yet heard from the employer.

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I just went through the whole flying thing. I was supposed to fly to Houston for job orientation, but the Chicago snow cancelled all flights into my O'Hare connection. Then the snow here finished it off. I'm hoping to go this weekend, but haven't yet heard from the employer.

That sucks!  Hopefully it works out for you!

our trip is a one time thing. So hopefully we didn’t waste the vacation days or money on the flight lol

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5 hours ago, Newman said:

The threat to watch out for is around Feb 13-15. @Wentzadelphia, take a look at the Para-GFS. It tries to pull a 96' with the vortex escaping into the 50/50 region, and a PNA spike bringing down another piece of energy that closes off in the center of the country. The only problem with this 12z run was it amps up way too early. Regardless, I'm on board with your February 10-17 call. It'll likely be centered around the 14th or 15th..

500h_anom.na.png

010718.thumb.png.8c810131277a9c2431efd6e614e6faf0.png

Yep I’ll be hyping this up until it fails, but 18z gfs pretty much progressed exactly how I’ve been talking about. Hope eps starts honing in next few days. We always have our opportunity for big ones after block has fully retrograded and tpv moves east into 50/50 region

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Why do the Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS want nothing to do with this? Para GFS was a couple NW ticks away from a SECS/MECS. Interesting.

This reminds me of the Boxing Day storm. Euro showed it first. Then lost it. Then the gfs showed it and the Euro came back. We’ll see if this is just noise or are the models finally starting to figure the pattern out 

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