Violentweatherfan Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 It was extremely cold prior, during, and after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Lady Di said: Anything to worry about Fri am? Other than some rain showers, nope 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I thought Glenn should seek a retirement community when 11am Monday he said snow could still be falling till mid-day Wed. Welp, here we are and it is still snowing although not sticking to anything. But just the idea that it would last this long is kinda crazy...and it has. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I haven't read Miller's journal article yet but I always considered a pure Miller A to be a storm that developed from a low originating in the southern stream, travels through the southern states or gulf and eventually redevelops off the coast from Georgia to NC. If the low traveled up to Tennessee or Kentucky before transferring to the coast I considered it a Miller B hybrid. A Miller B originates from a low in the northern stream, and when reaching Ohio, Kentucky or the Tennessee area, transfers to the coast from SC to NJ. Now I'll read the journal article and see how wrong I am. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Icon still has the Sunday storm lol but the gfs continues to trend further east with it. Along with the euro, I think it's safe to say this one's dead. Next week looks cold but mostly dry after Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 22 minutes ago, wkd said: I haven't read Miller's journal article yet but I always considered a pure Miller A to be a storm that developed from a low originating in the southern stream, travels through the southern states or gulf and eventually redevelops off the coast from Georgia to NC. If the low traveled up to Tennessee or Kentucky before transferring to the coast I considered it a Miller B hybrid. A Miller B originates from a low in the northern stream, and when reaching Ohio, Kentucky or the Tennessee area, transfers to the coast from SC to NJ. Now I'll read the journal article and see how wrong I am. lol If I read it correctly, even development off the coast is still a Miller A. Here is another PDF for more excellent reading. https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/bz-mrg.pdf Definitely a Miller A 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 hours ago, The Iceman said: Mt holly wants nothing to do with it: Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10 degrees below normal with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens. Sometimes I wonder if they write thes kinds of things as weenie fan service: "....still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Significant retreat of the "polar vortex" cold that was being shown for next week a couple days ago to normal cold, no complaints. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, RedSky said: Significant retreat of the "polar vortex" cold that was being shown for next week a couple days ago to normal cold, no complaints. I wonder if that allows the southeast ridge to building sending out Souther miss Sunday back NW time will tell?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 19 minutes ago, RedSky said: Significant retreat of the "polar vortex" cold that was being shown for next week a couple days ago to normal cold, no complaints. This is probably due to your age. I'll send you to my parents house w/the thermostat on 80, electric heater humming and electric blankets a must at all times. Much complaints here, wanted highs in the teens/wind! Predicted highs are now up 8-10+ degrees from a couple days ago. Still cold but not super cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 31 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I wonder if that allows the southeast ridge to building sending out Souther miss Sunday back NW time will tell?? I was surprised that the end result did not bring back the Sunday coastal and instead it went the other way, you never know in this hobby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Fwiw the new king para gfs is much closer with the weekend threat. Maybe not dead yet, but on life support? Maybe onto something? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Also the euro shows c-2" with the front on Friday now. Keeps in cold enough to start frozen and stay frozen n and w. No other model is that cold though. Ukie is close though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Spoke to a client in Iowa today. They're under blizzard warning for tomorrow. The whole state is blue or red as well as WI and part of NE. Anyway, I asked for an extension on the work I need to do there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The threat to watch out for is around Feb 13-15. @Wentzadelphia, take a look at the Para-GFS. It tries to pull a 96' with the vortex escaping into the 50/50 region, and a PNA spike bringing down another piece of energy that closes off in the center of the country. The only problem with this 12z run was it amps up way too early. Regardless, I'm on board with your February 10-17 call. It'll likely be centered around the 14th or 15th.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subliminal87 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, Newman said: The threat to watch out for is around Feb 13-15. @Wentzadelphia, take a look at the Para-GFS. It tries to pull a 96' with the vortex escaping into the 50/50 region, and a PNA spike bringing down another piece of energy that closes off in the center of the country. The only problem with this 12z run was it amps up way too early. Regardless, I'm on board with your February 10-17 call. It'll likely be centered around the 14th or 15th.. Ugh, I hope this is wrong. I have to fly from Harrisburg to NC, then to OKC on the 12th lol. I don't care what it does after that then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 18z GFS end of the run has the storm grand pappy weenie would be talking about 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 hours ago, RedSky said: Significant retreat of the "polar vortex" cold that was being shown for next week a couple days ago to normal cold, no complaints. Agreed. I don't need a polar vortex with 15 degree highs and -5 lows. Seasonal is just fine with me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Subliminal87 said: Ugh, I hope this is wrong. I have to fly from Harrisburg to NC, then to OKC on the 12th lol. I don't care what it does after that then. I just went through the whole flying thing. I was supposed to fly to Houston for job orientation, but the Chicago snow cancelled all flights into my O'Hare connection. Then the snow here finished it off. I'm hoping to go this weekend, but haven't yet heard from the employer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subliminal87 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: I just went through the whole flying thing. I was supposed to fly to Houston for job orientation, but the Chicago snow cancelled all flights into my O'Hare connection. Then the snow here finished it off. I'm hoping to go this weekend, but haven't yet heard from the employer. That sucks! Hopefully it works out for you! our trip is a one time thing. So hopefully we didn’t waste the vacation days or money on the flight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 54 minutes ago, Subliminal87 said: That sucks! Hopefully it works out for you! our trip is a one time thing. So hopefully we didn’t waste the vacation days or money on the flight lol Thanks, and hopefully your trip works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 hours ago, RedSky said: 18z GFS end of the run has the storm grand pappy weenie would be talking about Quick mover. Just a SECS. Pass. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 hours ago, Newman said: The threat to watch out for is around Feb 13-15. @Wentzadelphia, take a look at the Para-GFS. It tries to pull a 96' with the vortex escaping into the 50/50 region, and a PNA spike bringing down another piece of energy that closes off in the center of the country. The only problem with this 12z run was it amps up way too early. Regardless, I'm on board with your February 10-17 call. It'll likely be centered around the 14th or 15th.. Yep I’ll be hyping this up until it fails, but 18z gfs pretty much progressed exactly how I’ve been talking about. Hope eps starts honing in next few days. We always have our opportunity for big ones after block has fully retrograded and tpv moves east into 50/50 region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 GEFS came significantly further west for the Super Bowl Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Excited for this week. Super Bowl SECS then the Great Valentine's Day Wentzadelphia 96 Blizzard Redux!! Buckle up! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Newman said: GEFS came significantly further west for the Super Bowl Storm Why do the Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS want nothing to do with this? Para GFS was a couple NW ticks away from a SECS/MECS. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, Newman said: GEFS came significantly further west for the Super Bowl Storm As did the icon and NAM make major shifts NW. just noise or figuring out the pattern..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Why do the Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS want nothing to do with this? Para GFS was a couple NW ticks away from a SECS/MECS. Interesting. This reminds me of the Boxing Day storm. Euro showed it first. Then lost it. Then the gfs showed it and the Euro came back. We’ll see if this is just noise or are the models finally starting to figure the pattern out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just an example of the model shifts NW we're seeing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Building SE Atlantic Ridge pumping west it appears and changes out west. I think 12z starts the trend remember Euro on Monday showing 6-10”. I mean the GEFS shows rain for some showing the block is allowing the storm north and the SE ridge guiding it further NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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