Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Newman said: Yes, but the EPS agrees with the OP as of now Noice! Had the wrong GEFS...looks steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 46 minutes ago, RedSky said: This last storm was another PDII with big amounts displaced north, what do you want to call that one. GD1 for groundhog day...seems apt considering the analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Newman said: Don't look at the 12z Euro if you're kinda tired with snow (like me) Already prepared myself for a mix bag if this storm does come together as forecasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 40 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: GD1 for groundhog day...seems apt considering the analog. Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 49 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: GD1 for groundhog day...seems apt considering the analog. 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: Perfect Although I think there was already a GD1 and GD2 before I was born so maybe GD3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 6 hours ago, Snowcane21 said: Based on today’s trends we’ve moved from needle to basically a lay up lol. The cmc jumped about 300 miles west and the gfs made huge leaps towards the euro. All signals point to a major storm riding up the coast starting Saturday. Actually it has the risk of moving too far west on us. ICON tracks it West. Snow to mix. I can certainly see a scenario like this playing out...classic thump to mix or rain. Sets us up our arctic push and 50/50 for the period later next week that I am interested in. Dont see this weekend as a clean snow hit attm. Suppose it could trend tho. Busy tracking times! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 18Z GFS still south, but has ticked north. Right where we want it at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 29 minutes ago, hazwoper said: 18Z GFS still south, but has ticked north. Right where we want it at this point. ICON has trended towards a Hybrid Miller A/B....has characteristics of both with slp coming out of Plains moving along the South then up into the Tennessee Valley before transferring off the Carolina Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON has trended towards a Hybrid Miller A/B....has characteristics of both with slp coming out of Plains moving along the South then up into the Tennessee Valley before transferring off the Carolina Coast. Then that is straight up Miller B, not looking at the map but if there is no GOM interaction it's all Miller B. Development off the Carolina coast is a positive compared to what we just went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: Then that is straight up Miller B, not looking at the map but if there is no GOM interaction it's all Miller B. Development off the Carolina coast is a positive compared to what we just went through. Closer to inside the outer banks at the surface actually. Farthest S lat it gets is Montgomery, AL before headed NE towards the Tenn Valley. So no real GOM interaction as you noted. Pure Miller B it is? Matches the EPS mean in that regard which is Miller B as well. We don't get coast hugging Miller As often at all. They mostly just slide off the Carolina coast without the phase to draw them N it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Closer to inside the outer banks at the surface actually. Farthest S lat it gets is Montgomery, AL before headed NE towards the Tenn Valley. So no real GOM interaction as you noted. Pure Miller B it is? Matches the EPS mean in that regard which is Miller B as well. We don't get coast hugging Miller As often at all. They mostly just slide off the Carolina coast without the phase to draw them N it seems. I read from a site that Boxing Day storm 2010 was a Miller A. Not quite sure of it's accuracy though, because I did see portions of a video from YT that mention the surface low never really went in the GOM and just developed off the coast. I always assumed that there needed to be GOM interaction. Miller B storms are easy peasy to recognize because the primary low/clipper travels through Midwest and eventually dies and redevelops off the coast. If you find the time go and take a look at some of the surface maps from January 96 and check out the isobars/wind field. Just amazing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Courtesy of @forkyfork http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1946)003<0031%3ACITACR>2.0.CO%3B2 @Ralph Wiggum 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 51 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: I read from a site that Boxing Day storm 2010 was a Miller A. Not quite sure of it's accuracy though, because I did see portions of a video from YT that mention the surface low never really went in the GOM and just developed off the coast. I always assumed that there needed to be GOM interaction. Miller B storms are easy peasy to recognize because the primary low/clipper travels through Midwest and eventually dies and redevelops off the coast. If you find the time go and take a look at some of the surface maps from January 96 and check out the isobars/wind field. Just amazing. 96 wasn't a pure Miller A then, correct? From my reading the 'A' has more to do with the storm tracking far deep South (haven't found mention of a direct GOM connection) and emerging off the Carolina Coast without redevelopment of slp. The Miller B research on the weatherworksinc site says the defining characteristic is a surface low in the Midwest , OV, Tenn Valley that transfers/redevelops off the Mid Atl coast. 96 had the GOM interaction which meets A criteria but ALSO got into the Tenn Valley before redeveloping off the Mid Atl Coast which meets Miller B criteria. I believe contrary to several folks that 96 was in fact a hybrid. Interestingly enough, the 18z ICON has some similarities to the slp development of the 96 storm, tho not even close at h5 so no I am not comparing. Just trying to determine Miller status. It is a very interesting topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Out of curiosity did anyone do well in any bands during the afternoon / evening or were those fools gold on radar? The band over the delmarva looks interesting. I am shocked that the low still spins off the coast with a broad circulation far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 27 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Courtesy of @forkyfork http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1946)003<0031%3ACITACR>2.0.CO%3B2 @Ralph Wiggum TY so much for that link. I really enjoy reading this type of material directly from the scientist/meteorologist responsible for these classifications and studies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Looking back at those 4 images I posted, could we get any more of an exact slp placement between those 2 systems? I mean, seriously. I didnt even see how close they were when I cut and pasted them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Looking back at those 4 images I posted, could we get any more of an exact slp placement between those 2 systems? I mean, seriously. I didnt even see how close they were when I cut and pasted them.I think we could “settle” for that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, bpjones595 said: I think we could “settle” for that . Without hp holding with confluence in place that will probably be a thump to mix scenario at best. The cold antecedent airmass is stale at that point, so unless we get phasing or start seeing better confluence to help nose that HP over across the GL and funnel it into the region, we are dealing with a marginal airmass by that time. Of course this system also is progged to usher in arctic air behind it. So if phasing occurs and is timed properly, maybe we get a euro look from 0z and 12z yesterday. Guess that is still possible but again the look right now seems to favor a quick moving mix or thump to mix IF the ull looks on the icon and euro are to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 UKMET got SECS for Sunday 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 It’s still snowing outside NE Philly, crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Light snow in Hopewell this morning, looks like a fresh coating overnight. It can stop now, I'm over cleaning off the car for the 5th time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Euro folded to the gfs and cmc overnight in regard to this weekend. Next! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 We can punt that system. Too many plans this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, Plokoon111 said: We can punt that system. Too many plans this weekend. Meh weenies will always take snow But I'm torn because I do have a party to attend but I love snow. Heck, I still haven't dug my car out yet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 30 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Euro folded to the gfs and cmc overnight in regard to this weekend. Next! Not yet Big wild swing by the Euro for some reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not yet Big wild swing by the Euro for some reason. Mt holly wants nothing to do with it: Deterministic guidance over the past 24 hours has taken an eastern shift in a potential surface low track however there`s still quite a bit of spread in the ensemble guidance. I suspect over the next couple of days we`ll see this trend continue as the 250mb jet axis acts as a wall to push the developing low pressure system off shore. However its certainly within the ensemble envelope that we`ll see the low pressure system sneak back inside and towards the coast. So its worth watching for changes but likely the storm will have little impact over the region other than to bring rather cold temperatures to the region. Temps early next week will be running on the order of 10 degrees below normal with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Euro folded to the gfs and cmc overnight in regard to this weekend. Next! But 6z bro Yeah, I'm not seeing this one being a thing either attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But 6z bro Yeah, I'm not seeing this one being a thing either attm Eps is flatter Might be over but let's see 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Anything to worry about Fri am? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 13 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 96 wasn't a pure Miller A then, correct? From my reading the 'A' has more to do with the storm tracking far deep South (haven't found mention of a direct GOM connection) and emerging off the Carolina Coast without redevelopment of slp. The Miller B research on the weatherworksinc site says the defining characteristic is a surface low in the Midwest , OV, Tenn Valley that transfers/redevelops off the Mid Atl coast. 96 had the GOM interaction which meets A criteria but ALSO got into the Tenn Valley before redeveloping off the Mid Atl Coast which meets Miller B criteria. I believe contrary to several folks that 96 was in fact a hybrid. Interestingly enough, the 18z ICON has some similarities to the slp development of the 96 storm, tho not even close at h5 so no I am not comparing. Just trying to determine Miller status. It is a very interesting topic It was a Champion of Miller A storms and definitely tapped into the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now