Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Blizzard moving in.....29F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Couple lazy flurries falling... 29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Couple lazy flurries falling... 29F Probably our highlight for the week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Probably our highlight for the week. I think we'll get at least enough to whiten the ground sometime this week which isn't really asking for much... few flakes/29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I think we'll get at least enough to whiten the ground sometime this week which isn't really asking for much... few flakes/29F I seriously wouldn't bet on that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I seriously wouldn't bet on that. Yep, looks like snow tv now at best. Honestly won't be surprised if whatever falls ends up mostly rain at this point as the 2nd wave has trended so far north that we don't even score light stuff with that. What a joke. Yet we need a north trend on Thursday and the models don't budge or shift south.. It's a cruel joke... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Couple lazy flurries falling... 29F Just checked here, due to some returns overhead, and nuttin but virga. 31F currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Just checked here, due to some returns overhead, and nuttin but virga. 31F currently. Believe me it wasn't much. A couple stray fine flakes looking into my porch light... 28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I bet the models don't waffle one bit for the cutters projected in the long range. They'll probably be lights out with those. Maybe we will pick up an inch this weekend before the changeover to rain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Cmc suppresses the wave this weekend and gives us a long duration light snow event. Gfs and icon are still a thump to rain. Will be interesting to see how we managed to fail. My first guess is the first wave shears out over dc before the frozen precip reaches us and wrecks the thermals for the 2nd wave giving us a nice light rain storm. Maybe if I predict how these events will fail, it'll change our fortune... Gotta try anything at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12z ECM is going to snow blitz the area next Monday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 For anybody that still has a pulse the ECM is dangling a footlong on a stick next Monday long duration groundhog burying event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 This one actually does have the blocking episode receding timing going for it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Cmc suppresses the wave this weekend and gives us a long duration light snow event. Gfs and icon are still a thump to rain. Will be interesting to see how we managed to fail. My first guess is the first wave shears out over dc before the frozen precip reaches us and wrecks the thermals for the 2nd wave giving us a nice light rain storm. Maybe if I predict how these events will fail, it'll change our fortune... Gotta try anything at this point. Alright you're driving the train on this one. I already have a 90% feeling we know how this will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: This one actually does have the blocking episode receding timing going for it I've said before, its the third one in the wave train that is always the one to watch. Unwritten rule since the eastern days. Im not in until 72 hrs prior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Wave #3 is the one Ralph February is the big snow month Behind the block timing big cold in place Little can go wrong 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: Wave #3 is the one Ralph February is the big snow month Behind the block timing big cold in place Little can go wrong JMA is on board. That speaks volumes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I'm not in until I'm shoveling 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Wave #3 is the one Ralph February is the big snow month Behind the block timing big cold in place Little can go wrong This will have to thread the needle with that being said. The NAO was the only saving grace keeping us from being a wall to wall torch all winter. With the lack of true arctic air in our source region, we are asking for an absolute perfectly timed situation. Unless the entire H5 look decides to change and go Euro on it where it blows up, stall, and manufactures its own cold air. Cause that always seems to work out well also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 So the ukie comes along and says I will provide cold air to the tune of below zero just to our north. Model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Euro is a full blown miller B next Sunday/Monday. Not falling for that again. It'll probably hug the coast and be a rainer for 95. I'm not investing in it until it's 24 hours out. Gfs probably driving the boat on this one since it's the less desirable solution of all the long range models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I go by the rule of getting a threat within five days out before I take it seriously. We'll see how this trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This will have to thread the needle with that being said. The NAO was the only saving grace keeping us from being a wall to wall torch all winter. With the lack of true arctic air in our source region, we are asking for an absolute perfectly timed situation. Unless the entire H5 look decides to change and go Euro on it where it blows up, stall, and manufactures its own cold air. Cause that always seems to work out well also We have true arctic air locking in starting Thursday, temps stay below freezing through early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Euro is a full blown miller B next Sunday/Monday. Not falling for that again. It'll probably hug the coast and be a rainer for 95. I'm not investing in it until it's 24 hours out. Gfs probably driving the boat on this one since it's the less desirable solution of all the long range models. Gfs driving the boat? On which planet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 We had 2 failed poyential events, it could be a lot worse. We could be staring at 50-60s, but alas we have another threat. Can’t complain at least something to track imo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 25 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Gfs driving the boat? On which planet? This planet the S.S. Minnow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 On 1/22/2021 at 12:01 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Well, models suggest if both systems next week fail, we have Jan 31-Feb 1 storm to track. GFS doing its normal cutter thing, CMC more aggressive with the cold push and blocking. Regardless, both models are active asf and one system after the other thru first week of Feb. Plenty of chances. On 1/22/2021 at 12:35 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: That one could actually be the best potential of the next 3 IF things progress the way they are progged. Big ones show themselves early. Been on the radar since last week. CMC deserves a biscuit if this happens? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 10 years ago today: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The February outlook keeps growing colder, the warm Feb predictions are in real trouble uughh. New GFS long range looks as cold as February 2014 make it stop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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