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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I seriously wouldn't bet on that.

Yep, looks like snow tv now at best. Honestly won't be surprised if whatever falls ends up mostly rain at this point as the 2nd wave has trended so far north that we don't even score light stuff with that. What a joke. Yet we need a north trend on Thursday and the models don't budge or shift south..  It's a cruel joke... 

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Cmc suppresses the wave this weekend and gives us a long duration light snow event. Gfs and icon are still a thump to rain. Will be interesting to see how we managed to fail. My first guess is the first wave shears out over dc before the frozen precip reaches us and wrecks the thermals for the 2nd wave giving us a nice light rain storm. Maybe if I predict how these events will fail, it'll change our fortune... Gotta try anything at this point.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Cmc suppresses the wave this weekend and gives us a long duration light snow event. Gfs and icon are still a thump to rain. Will be interesting to see how we managed to fail. My first guess is the first wave shears out over dc before the frozen precip reaches us and wrecks the thermals for the 2nd wave giving us a nice light rain storm. Maybe if I predict how these events will fail, it'll change our fortune... Gotta try anything at this point.

Alright you're driving the train on this one. I already have a 90% feeling we know how this will play out.

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Wave #3 is the one Ralph

February is the big snow month 

Behind the block timing big cold in place

 

Little can go wrong

 

This will have to thread the needle with that being said. The NAO was the only saving grace keeping us from being a wall to wall torch all winter. With the lack of true arctic air in our source region, we are asking for an absolute perfectly timed situation. Unless the entire H5 look decides to change and go Euro on it where it blows up, stall, and manufactures its own cold air. Cause that always seems to work out well also

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This will have to thread the needle with that being said. The NAO was the only saving grace keeping us from being a wall to wall torch all winter. With the lack of true arctic air in our source region, we are asking for an absolute perfectly timed situation. Unless the entire H5 look decides to change and go Euro on it where it blows up, stall, and manufactures its own cold air. Cause that always seems to work out well also

We have true arctic air locking in starting Thursday, temps stay below freezing through early next week.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Euro is a full blown miller B next Sunday/Monday. Not falling for that again. It'll probably hug the coast and be a rainer for 95. I'm not investing in it until it's 24 hours out. Gfs probably driving the boat on this one since it's the less desirable solution of all the long range models. 

Gfs driving the boat? On which planet? 

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On 1/22/2021 at 12:01 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well, models suggest if both systems next week fail, we have Jan 31-Feb 1 storm to track. GFS doing its normal cutter thing,  CMC more aggressive with the cold push and blocking. Regardless, both models are active asf and one system after the other thru first week of Feb. Plenty of chances.

 

On 1/22/2021 at 12:35 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

That one could actually be the best potential of the next 3 IF things progress the way they are progged. 

Big ones show themselves early. Been on the radar since last week. CMC deserves a biscuit if this happens?

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