RedSky Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Got the trophy football in the display case with the words " He didn't punt" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC is quite a bit colder BUT also loses the primary faster. More realistic storm with our region being on the Northern edge. Close call tho because the tilt is neg and almost appears the slp gets pulled N for a frame or 2. This is still pretty good at this lead. What do I take away the promised timeframe is here and we track that’s about it for now. What else could we want over the last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 After a look at the 6Z GFS I am surprised how quiet this sub forum is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, bigtenfan said: After a look at the 6Z GFS I am surprised how quiet this sub forum is. Until the Euro and EPS comes on board, the end of the week storm that the GFS and GEFS shows is done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Yesterday was only out 2nd below normal day this month...the last being on New Year's day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Well looks like we are going to miss Thursday event as well. I'm on the redsky train. This season is cooked... I hope its 70 all of February because this pattern blows 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Never bet against the euro when it shows no snow. It's right 100% of the time. Gfs is a trash model, just take it out back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 15 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Well looks like we are going to miss Thursday event as well. I'm on the redsky train. This season is cooked... I hope its 70 all of February because this pattern blows Yea..status quo for storm impacts again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 46 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Well looks like we are going to miss Thursday event as well. I'm on the redsky train. This season is cooked... I hope its 70 all of February because this pattern blows But I didn't punt and expected 30 days conducive to winter weather. The analogs for a mild dry Nina February appear useless, if anything February is projecting below normal. If we manage little to no snow through the next month it's a historic fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 January 2006 was the warmest on record, no -NAO or favorable anything and I managed 2" snow AND got mild torches and pop up thunderstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Philly DJ lied! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Keep the faith- what happens in December the winter remembers!! Near normal snow for all this season!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Glenn Schwartz article I'm Phillymag on why no winter forecast. Essentially says climate change has ruined analogs of the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Never bet against the euro when it shows no snow. It's right 100% of the time. Gfs is a trash model, just take it out back. Tired of kicking the can. The period is producing trackable event but I'm pretty sure I speak for most on here when I say wtf is the point in tracking if all systems fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS was the best model on the monster storm that never panned out earlier this winter. Anyone who just chooses to blatantly not listen to the GFS shouldn't be telling anyone what the weather may or may not be. Glenn Schwartz is a joke. Blame everything but yourself, makes sense. These forecasts were never impressive. Generic vague predictions of average snowfall is all they ever were, woop de doo. Way too many people ride runs they like and disregard runs they do not like. It doesn't work that way, and it's why everyone gets burned time and time again. If one kuchera run of some model shows 18" and another standard run of another model shows nothing, you can't just run with the 18" one because you prefer what it shows lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 49 minutes ago, RedSky said: Glenn Schwartz article I'm Phillymag on why no winter forecast. Essentially says climate change has ruined analogs of the past. Analogs from the past say less snow and we'll get screwed this winter.....and we have. Punting after the Thurs event fails? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Tired of kicking the can. The period is producing trackable event but I'm pretty sure I speak for most on here when I say wtf is the point in tracking if all systems fail. It’s maddening isn’t it? So far, we have had over 2 1/2 months of “great potential”, people have been hyping since mid November, what have we gotten in the NYC metro? One storm (December 16th).....well over a month ago and the snow was long gone, melted, by Christmas Day. Nothing but moving the goal posts, moving the finish line forward and kicking the can down the road ever since then. This month was an unmitigated disaster. The very snowy and cold pattern is always just 8-10 days away. Now, February 2-3 is being hyped as another very snowy period....over 8 days away. Groundhog Day, hit the repeat button. I also see the twitterologists hyping a “major” SSW in late February. Even if it was to actually happen, what the hell good is it going to do at the end of February? There is a lag of weeks before its effects are felt on the troposphere....that would make it mid to late March before anything would even happen from it. By then, winter is over, done, stick a fork in it, it’s over Johnny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s maddening isn’t it? So far, we have had over 2 1/2 months of “great potential”, people have been hyping since mid November, what have we gotten in the NYC metro? One storm (December 16th).....well over a month ago and the snow was long gone, melted, by Christmas Day. Nothing but moving the goal posts, moving the finish line forward and kicking the can down the road ever since then. This month was an unmitigated disaster. The very snowy and cold pattern is always just 8-10 days away. Now, February 2-3 is being hyped as another very snowy period....8 days away. I also see the twitterologists hyping a “major” SSW in late February. Even if it was to actually happen, what the hell good is it going to do at the end of February? There is a lag of weeks before its effects are felt on the troposphere....that would make it mid to late March before anything would even happen from it. By then, winter is over, done, stick a fork in it, it’s over Johnny The ONLY good thing about this (personally) is a delayed/colder than normal Spring before we torch in Summer which makes Fall come that much quicker... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just watch March will somehow come thru with cold and Snow just when we’ve all given up, it’s so frustrating all the great posts about the Pattern being perfect setup for East Coast Snow Storms only to them fail every possible way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Just watch March will somehow come thru with cold and Snow just when we’ve all given up, it’s so frustrating all the great posts about the Pattern being perfect setup for East Coast Snow Storms only to them fail every possible way. I saw flakes falling 3 days this month and 2 days in May lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 39 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Analogs from the past say less snow and we'll get screwed this winter.....and we have. Punting after the Thurs event fails? Have to see how March, April and May look first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 51 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: GFS was the best model on the monster storm that never panned out earlier this winter. Anyone who just chooses to blatantly not listen to the GFS shouldn't be telling anyone what the weather may or may not be. Glenn Schwartz is a joke. Blame everything but yourself, makes sense. These forecasts were never impressive. Generic vague predictions of average snowfall is all they ever were, woop de doo. Way too many people ride runs they like and disregard runs they do not like. It doesn't work that way, and it's why everyone gets burned time and time again. If one kuchera run of some model shows 18" and another standard run of another model shows nothing, you can't just run with the 18" one because you prefer what it shows lol. Most of us on here aren’t meteorologists. We’re storm Enthusiasts....unless you’re completely new to this wx world every one of us knows not to go all in in situations like that. It’s just part of the fun. Hell, the 00z gfs run the other night was the most fun I had all winter lol. I obv knew it was at the extreme north side of guidance as I’m sure others did too. Relax with hurricane man. Why the hate? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Have to see how March, April and May look first Of course, patience. The only thing saving me (losing it) from 2 upcoming failed events are 2 NFL championship games and beer... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It snowed in Malibu, California. A place in the 80's last week Who has the weenie handbook handy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 45 minutes ago, RedSky said: It snowed in Malibu, California. A place in the 80's last week Who has the weenie handbook handy? I think Ralph has it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Heading into mid winter, a quick recap at gay Adam and hot Cecily's winter outlook. *Note: They had 10" for Philly, 12" local burbs and 15"+ far burbs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Analogs from the past say less snow and we'll get screwed this winter.....and we have. Punting after the Thurs event fails? The analogs were bad for winter. Problem is the -AO/-NAO combo was not in the equation and we failed for new reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: The analogs were bad for winter. Problem is the -AO/-NAO combo was not in the equation and we failed for new reasons. Why's new? This winter may be equally if not worse than last. (so far) Last year we had limited/zero potential so there was no stress/late nights involved. This year I'm way behind on sleep... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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