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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CMC is quite a bit colder BUT also loses the primary faster. More realistic storm with our region being on the Northern edge. Close call tho because the tilt is neg and almost appears the slp gets pulled N for a frame or 2. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_23.png

This is still pretty good at this lead.  What do I take away the promised timeframe is here and we track that’s about it for now.  What else could we want over the last year? 

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46 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Well looks like we are going to miss Thursday event as well. I'm on the redsky train. This season is cooked... I hope its 70 all of February because this pattern blows 

But I didn't punt and expected 30 days conducive to winter weather. The analogs for a mild dry Nina February appear useless, if anything February is projecting below normal. If we manage little to no snow through the next month it's a historic fail.

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Never bet against the euro when it shows no snow. It's right 100% of the time. Gfs is a trash model, just take it out back.

Tired of kicking the can. The period is producing trackable event but I'm pretty sure I speak for most on here when I say wtf is the point in tracking if all systems fail.

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GFS was the best model on the monster storm that never panned out earlier this winter. Anyone who just chooses to blatantly not listen to the GFS shouldn't be telling anyone what the weather may or may not be.

Glenn Schwartz is a joke. Blame everything but yourself, makes sense. These forecasts were never impressive. Generic vague predictions of average snowfall is all they ever were, woop de doo.

Way too many people ride runs they like and disregard runs they do not like. It doesn't work that way, and it's why everyone gets burned time and time again. If one kuchera run of some model shows 18" and another standard run of another model shows nothing, you can't just run with the 18" one because you prefer what it shows lol.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Tired of kicking the can. The period is producing trackable event but I'm pretty sure I speak for most on here when I say wtf is the point in tracking if all systems fail.

It’s maddening isn’t it? So far, we have had over 2 1/2 months of “great potential”, people have been hyping since mid November, what have we gotten in the NYC metro? One storm (December 16th).....well over a month ago and the snow was long gone, melted, by Christmas Day. Nothing but moving the goal posts, moving the finish line forward and kicking the can down the road ever since then. This month was an unmitigated disaster. The very snowy and cold pattern is always just 8-10 days away. Now, February 2-3 is being hyped as another very snowy period....over 8 days away. Groundhog Day, hit the repeat button.  I also see the twitterologists hyping a “major” SSW in late February. Even if it was to actually happen, what the hell good is it going to do at the end of February? There is a lag of weeks before its effects are felt on the troposphere....that would make it mid to late March before anything would even happen from it. By then, winter is over, done, stick a fork in it, it’s over Johnny

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16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s maddening isn’t it? So far, we have had over 2 1/2 months of “great potential”, people have been hyping since mid November, what have we gotten in the NYC metro? One storm (December 16th).....well over a month ago and the snow was long gone, melted, by Christmas Day. Nothing but moving the goal posts, moving the finish line forward and kicking the can down the road ever since then. This month was an unmitigated disaster. The very snowy and cold pattern is always just 8-10 days away. Now, February 2-3 is being hyped as another very snowy period....8 days away. I also see the twitterologists hyping a “major” SSW in late February. Even if it was to actually happen, what the hell good is it going to do at the end of February? There is a lag of weeks before its effects are felt on the troposphere....that would make it mid to late March before anything would even happen from it. By then, winter is over, done, stick a fork in it, it’s over Johnny

The ONLY good thing about this (personally) is a delayed/colder than normal Spring before we torch in Summer which makes Fall come that much quicker... 

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13 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Just watch March will somehow come thru with cold and Snow just when we’ve all given up, it’s so frustrating all the great posts about the Pattern being perfect setup for East Coast Snow Storms only to them fail every possible way. 

I saw flakes falling 3 days this month and 2 days in May lol

 

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51 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

GFS was the best model on the monster storm that never panned out earlier this winter. Anyone who just chooses to blatantly not listen to the GFS shouldn't be telling anyone what the weather may or may not be.

Glenn Schwartz is a joke. Blame everything but yourself, makes sense. These forecasts were never impressive. Generic vague predictions of average snowfall is all they ever were, woop de doo.

Way too many people ride runs they like and disregard runs they do not like. It doesn't work that way, and it's why everyone gets burned time and time again. If one kuchera run of some model shows 18" and another standard run of another model shows nothing, you can't just run with the 18" one because you prefer what it shows lol.

 

 

Most of us on here aren’t meteorologists. We’re storm Enthusiasts....unless you’re completely new to this wx world every one of us knows not to go all in in situations like that. It’s just part of the fun. Hell, the 00z gfs run the other night was the most fun I had all winter lol. I obv knew it was at the extreme north side of guidance as I’m sure others did too. Relax with hurricane man. Why the hate?

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3 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Analogs from the past say less snow and we'll get screwed this winter.....and we have.

Punting after the Thurs event fails?

The analogs were bad for winter. Problem is the -AO/-NAO combo was not in the equation and we failed for new reasons.

 

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6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The analogs were bad for winter. Problem is the -AO/-NAO combo was not in the equation and we failed for new reasons.

 

Why's new?

This winter may be equally if not worse than last. (so far) Last year we had limited/zero potential so there was no stress/late nights involved. This year I'm way behind on sleep...

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