Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Well, models suggest if both systems next week fail, we have Jan 31-Feb 1 storm to track. GFS doing its normal cutter thing, CMC more aggressive with the cold push and blocking. Regardless, both models are active asf and one system after the other thru first week of Feb. Plenty of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GEFS for storm 2.. still several hits in there.. seems to be the ones that are slower with the southern shortwave are able to bring it more N... we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: UKMET a general 5" event in the region Storm 1 or 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Storm 1 or 2? #2 off the SE coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I put that where it belongs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think he is in Delco Oh, I know. Just busting his stones cause he complains too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 CMC with an I95'er Feb 1st as a backup big chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, RedSky said: CMC with an I95'er Feb 1st as a backup big chance That one could actually be the best potential of the next 3 IF things progress the way they are progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That one could actually be the best potential of the next 3 IF things progress the way they are progged. Blocking receding so yup that's our blizz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Euro is a complete miss with the second storm. Hopefully the eps shows some hope with it. At least we will likely see some snow with storm 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Oh snap, near my old stomping grounds. Familiar with Secane? Used to live a block from Imperial Pizza. Secane is 16 miles or 29 minutes away up near philly. lived in warminster 22 or 23 years ago in a bungalow right off York road. Had some good storms. Once got 4 inches in an hour long thunder snow event with lighting. My favorite watering holes for games were Kenny’s & Reece’s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Euro is a complete miss with the second storm. Hopefully the eps shows some hope with it. At least we will likely see some snow with storm 1. Comical...GFS/GEFS and CMC/GEPS were lax yesterday with the late week system where the Euro/EPS were honking. Today they completely reverse roles...GFS/CMC families honking more than the Euro/EPS from yesterday while the Euro/EPS crap the bed completely. You can't make this stuff up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Weenie handbook rule #18: models struggle during blocking regimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Oh snap, near my old stomping grounds. Familiar with Secane? Used to live a block from Imperial Pizza. Damm good pizza too for 5 bucks pass it every day Ralph! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 18z GFS doubles down on the late week system. Farther N. Stronger sw, better ridging out in front. Getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS doubles down on the late week system. Wow....incoming: Let's see the next two frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I was on the edge of my seat for that run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Storm #2 looked great then it literally fujiwara'd southeast around departing cyclone #1, kind of cool actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 My one week extension is over...and he's holding the ball no punt! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WOOF WOOF!!!! Hold the primary longer allows for bombing farther N and W. Well I'll be a sonofabish 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Lucky everybody storm #2 manages to make its own cold air to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Lucky everybody storm #2 manages to make its own cold air to snow Look north there is a 1043 high coming on down too. Like Ralph says Woof!! This storm has Big Dog written all over it classic following the baroclinic zone left behind from Tuesday’s storm and bang!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Look north there is a 1043 high coming on down too. Like Ralph says Woof!! This storm has Big Dog written all over it classic following the baroclinic zone left behind from Tuesday’s storm and bang!! Look to the NW quadrant where there is rain with lighter precipitation it's like a March storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Look north there is a 1043 high coming on down too. Like Ralph says Woof!! This storm has Big Dog written all over it classic following the baroclinic zone left behind from Tuesday’s storm and bang!! Agreed. And right on the heels...nary a break in between. CMC tries to phase another piece of the PV into the back of the trof now too. This is escalating quickly. Go to bed before Dr No comes in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Agreed. And right on the heels...nary a break in between. CMC tries to phase another piece of the PV into the back of the trof now too. This is escalating quickly. Go to be before Dr No comes in. You aren’t kidding!!! Think we got something this time the pattern looks to go classic appetizer then big dog off a block! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 CMC is quite a bit colder BUT also loses the primary faster. More realistic storm with our region being on the Northern edge. Close call tho because the tilt is neg and almost appears the slp gets pulled N for a frame or 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: You aren’t kidding!!! Think we got something this time the pattern looks to go classic appetizer then big dog off a block! Not getting overly excited just yet. These runs put us in the game. But this was a SC storm just 30 hours or so ago. Could still move around a bit the next several days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC is quite a bit colder BUT also loses the primary faster. More realistic storm with our region being on the Northern edge. Close call tho because the tilt is neg and almost appears the slp gets pulled N for a frame or 2. Look at the continuing north trend this is the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GEFS are sheer weather porn. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Look at the continuing north trend this is the one Might be the one for New England at this rate. Im sure the Euro puts the kibosh on the N trend thing in 90 mins tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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