RedSky Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Incoming big doggie bonus day 8-9 on the ECM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 12z ECM love us long time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Meh a blizzard for Cape May plenty of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Soon to be rolled off the showroom floor new GFS has an even more expansive snow with less mix that the ECM for storm #1 Turn off the screen and wait for Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Lovely snow squall a little after 11 a.m. today. The dog and I went out to play. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 ^Damn, nice! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Furrawn said: Lovely snow squall a little after 11 a.m. today. The dog and I went out to play. Wish there was a love emoji.....this is awesome on many levels! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wish there was a love emoji.....this is awesome on many levels! Cool dog but a Husky would have been weenie weather picture perfect... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 That last squall that passed through the SoMoCo area just after Noon was intense. Lucky the sun angle put up a good fight and the roads never were an issue, just visibility. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Gfs/gefs is either going to score a giant coup or have a giant egg on its face. A bit concerning that the gfs ensembles were suppressed like the gefs. I only saw 2 hits on the gefs. Fortunately the eps looks good, much like its op. Not many suppressed looks either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Not many suppressed looks at all on the eps, that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 EPS continue to slowly improve for our region. In addition the signal for the period Jan 28-Feb7 continues to improve and show more potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Furrawn said: Lovely snow squall a little after 11 a.m. today. The dog and I went out to play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 18z gfs still is a whiff, the para gfs tho is a nice hit region wide! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 22 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 18z gfs still is a whiff, the para gfs tho is a nice hit region wide! Too far out to be in the bullseye. I get more nervous jackpotting at 6+ days than I do with crud solutions at 84 hrs but with wiggle room. Get this within 60 hrs and we r gold....maybe. This one doesn't have alot of wiggle room for a flush snow hit, but nice to see this as a potential. On to 0z. Eta: 18z GEFS mean showed slight improvement wrt total precip amts, 2m temps, and general track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Imagine how boring this hobby would be w/o the GFS. Oh, and ch10 said maybe more snow showers next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Imagine how boring this hobby would be w/o the GFS. Oh, and ch10 said maybe more snow showers next week. Sounds like something Bill Henley would say, if he is still around. One of the weather people that isn't a weather person. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 We lost all but the Ukie, whick looks fabulous, to the block at 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: We lost all but the Ukie, whick looks fabulous, to the block at 0z Euro looks good but temps are borderline in many places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Ens means at overnight continued to slowly improve for early next week for parts of this region with most notable changes being ticks N with precip and increased overall amount. Southern portions of the region still walking a fine line on temps but immediate PHL on N and W continue to show colder 850s pressing S each run trying to fight off any surging warmth. Attached is the GEPS trend in precip....6z GEFS was just rolling and not quite available yet: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ens means at overnight continued to slowly improve for early next week for parts of this region with most notable changes being ticks N with precip and increased overall amount. Southern portions of the region still walking a fine line on temps but immediate PHL on N and W continue to show colder 850s pressing S each run trying to fight off any surging warmth. Attached is the GEPS trend in precip....6z GEFS was just rolling and not quite available yet: what are we 5 days out now? so these models should start some sort of consensus soon correct? If I remember correctly the mid December storm was modeled pretty well by about day 5 but the finer details didn't come till 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 33 minutes ago, penndotguy said: what are we 5 days out now? so these models should start some sort of consensus soon correct? If I remember correctly the mid December storm was modeled pretty well by about day 5 but the finer details didn't come till 48hrs. We should start getting a concensus by 12z tomorrow imho. GFS is just catching up to other guidance. Looks like a wave slides across Sunday night/Monday reinforcing the cold air (seasonably cold which would work). Then we get a strung out overunning event Monday PM-late Tuesday. Best band being modeled around Baltimore latitude right now in general but overunning traditionally ends up farther N than modeled....tho with such a strong block *maybe* that fights off too much of a N trend? Just glad we are in prime climo and tracking. Patience was wearing thin for many with the HL blocking finally being established. Should be more chances for the 10 days following as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We should start getting a concensus by 12z tomorrow imho. GFS is just catching up to other guidance. Looks like a wave slides across Sunday night/Monday reinforcing the cold air (seasonably cold which would work). Then we get a strung out overunning event Monday PM-late Tuesday. Best band being modeled around Baltimore latitude right now in general but overunning traditionally ends up farther N than modeled....tho with such a strong block *maybe* that fights off too much of a N trend? Just glad we are in prime climo and tracking. Patience was wearing thin for many with the HL blocking finally being established. Should be more chances for the 10 days following as well. Hope you are right..get that north trend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Still only 1 day all season with a temp below 20 degrees...of course many lower spots have had many more this season, 20.5 here and 21 and KMQS this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPotter_WX Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Had a nice sun pillar this AM over the Ben Franklin Bridge! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We should start getting a concensus by 12z tomorrow imho. GFS is just catching up to other guidance. Looks like a wave slides across Sunday night/Monday reinforcing the cold air (seasonably cold which would work). Then we get a strung out overunning event Monday PM-late Tuesday. Best band being modeled around Baltimore latitude right now in general but overunning traditionally ends up farther N than modeled....tho with such a strong block *maybe* that fights off too much of a N trend? Just glad we are in prime climo and tracking. Patience was wearing thin for many with the HL blocking finally being established. Should be more chances for the 10 days following as well. 12z off to a good start. ICON inched north a bit and gives the area a decent hit. Wave 1 is still a little too far south, but wave 2 hits us pretty solid. Haven't seen the clown maps but I'm guessing a solid 3-4" for most places? Good to see the S trend stop at least. I agree we don't want to be in the jackpot this far out, but at the same time a continuing south trend would have been worrisome at this range. 12z tomorrow seems like a good bet on whether this threat has serious legs or not. I don't anticipate many last minute changes on this one, I think once this gets into the day 3-4 range, any changes will be minimal. Just basing this off the last month, the models have generally been pretty spot on from the day 4 range this winter surprisingly. EDIT: Catching up on the ensembles from last night(both GEFS and EPS), there is still a surprisingly amount of amped up N solutions still in play. 12z GFS also just ticked North halting the suppression trend for now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Canadian & GFS locked and loaded 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 CMC south with wave #2, but let's get wave #1 locked down before worrying about anything else. Paging Dr. No... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Animal said: Canadian & GFS locked and loaded Cmc is beautiful for all, that would be my absolute ideal solution for this storm. Everyone gets in on the action. Southern areas see some mixing issues verbatim but see more precip so overall everyone sees at least 3-6". Gfs was a major improvement but still a sharp cut off for our northern friends. Overall though great improvements so far at 12z and that's ignoring how great the long range after this threat looks. Excited to see the gefs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, JTA66 said: CMC south with wave #2, but let's get wave #1 locked down before worrying about anything else. Paging Dr. No... Exactly how I feel, let's take it one storm at a time but man is it encouraging to see at least 3 legit threats after this one in the long range. It's been a long time since we've been potentially tracking snow on snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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