Birds~69 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Can Howie too and we'll have our HECS. We'll have to settle for a 1-3" / 2-4" thing because Howie isn't going anywhere... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Another episode of as the bi polar weather ball bounces. One would think a 1994, 2014 repeat was imminent browsing the board, while the weeklies come in looking like the earliest start to gardening ever. It was over yesterday, today it's on but wait... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Da weeklies give us a solid period of winter Jan 25-Feb 1st lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 They say the big ones are sniffed out at range... Well only 14 days to go til our HECS. It's a beaut of a fantasy storm. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021011300&fh=378 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Another mostly sunny forecast day, and another socked in with a thick cloud deck. Been the same story for weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 T -2 days before epic 1996 redux pattern gets under way. -Snow blower gassed up -Fridge stocked with milk and eggs -No bread, but freezer stocked with vodka -Netflix binge list complete Cloudy, 38F. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Well it worked out for half of us btw there are some strange angular cloud formations in the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 45 minutes ago, RedSky said: Another mostly sunny forecast day, and another socked in with a thick cloud deck. Been the same story for weeks. One thing for sure it just seems like Winter is creeping along at a snails pace, with lows in lower 20"s and highs barely reaching 40 and mostly cloudy since Saturday the ground around my house is frozen, not a deep frost but frozen couple inches anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 In the news a CAT 5 atmospheric river hitting the Pacific Northwest. Is this a new term? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, penndotguy said: One thing for sure it just seems like Winter is creeping along at a snails pace, with lows in lower 20"s and highs barely reaching 40 and mostly cloudy since Saturday the ground around my house is frozen, not a deep frost but frozen couple inches anyway. This is the coldest mild winter I have ever felt. When is the last time it hit 50F Christmas? No 50's and yet January is +3F, and December was +2F with snow cover here of near 10 days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, RedSky said: This is the coldest mild winter I have ever felt. When is the last time it hit 50F Christmas? No 50's and yet January is +3F, and December was +2F with snow cover here of near 10 days. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 We have a decent snow window showing itself for the 21st. , though I think people in my neighborhood north are in real fringe danger. My January 15th decision is going to be rough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 No joke ....I''m too old and too lazy. Just walking across and shook my head. Snow pile in North Wales ... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 33 minutes ago, RedSky said: We have a decent snow window showing itself for the 21st. , though I think people in my neighborhood north are in real fringe danger. My January 15th decision is going to be rough. I'll honestly be shocked if we have a -NAO/-AO all month and don't get a single measurable snowfall. I know it hasn't been cold but it's been cold enough if we could manage to get a decent storm. I think people(myself included) forget the waiting typically involved in a long term blocking pattern though. Probably because they've been such a rarity lately. But think back to Jan 2010, that was pretty much a -Nao/-AO all month and it took us til the very end of that month to get anything. My point is despite our poor luck so far this month, I think we still see at least 1 warning level event by the end of Jan. We are at day 8 right now at our first real threat on both the Euro and GFS..Euro obviously being the better solution. Let's hope it's still there tomorrow. We've had a tough time getting threats from the 7-10 day window into the 4-7 day window without falling apart so the next 24 hours will really determine if this one bears closer watching or not. Overall though, I still don't hate the pattern, and it only takes one storm to get us to climo in our area. Blocking is how we accomplish that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 48 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I'll honestly be shocked if we have a -NAO/-AO all month and don't get a single measurable snowfall. I know it hasn't been cold but it's been cold enough if we could manage to get a decent storm. I think people(myself included) forget the waiting typically involved in a long term blocking pattern though. Probably because they've been such a rarity lately. But think back to Jan 2010, that was pretty much a -Nao/-AO all month and it took us til the very end of that month to get anything. My point is despite our poor luck so far this month, I think we still see at least 1 warning level event by the end of Jan. We are at day 8 right now at our first real threat on both the Euro and GFS..Euro obviously being the better solution. Let's hope it's still there tomorrow. We've had a tough time getting threats from the 7-10 day window into the 4-7 day window without falling apart so the next 24 hours will really determine if this one bears closer watching or not. Overall though, I still don't hate the pattern, and it only takes one storm to get us to climo in our area. Blocking is how we accomplish that. EPS members are concentrated north which I did not expect, too much of a stout block if you ask me. This should be fun to follow. * actually they are south for next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 6 hours ago, The Iceman said: I'll honestly be shocked if we have a -NAO/-AO all month and don't get a single measurable snowfall. I know it hasn't been cold but it's been cold enough if we could manage to get a decent storm. I think people(myself included) forget the waiting typically involved in a long term blocking pattern though. Probably because they've been such a rarity lately. But think back to Jan 2010, that was pretty much a -Nao/-AO all month and it took us til the very end of that month to get anything. My point is despite our poor luck so far this month, I think we still see at least 1 warning level event by the end of Jan. We are at day 8 right now at our first real threat on both the Euro and GFS..Euro obviously being the better solution. Let's hope it's still there tomorrow. We've had a tough time getting threats from the 7-10 day window into the 4-7 day window without falling apart so the next 24 hours will really determine if this one bears closer watching or not. Overall though, I still don't hate the pattern, and it only takes one storm to get us to climo in our area. Blocking is how we accomplish that. We should have a clipper system early in the week as an appetizer to lay down some foundation. Then maybe something around the 21st is being sniffed out. The pattern looks like a powder keg about to go off around the 26th. So plenty of tracking chances coming up. I agree that yes, some of us, myself included, have forgotten that these patterns really test your patience but have a very high probability of working out for us eventually. Go Flyers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Partly Sunny! 47F sitting in the sun feels like 60F. If I can't make 50F today it looks like I won't do it for the month of January which is a rare occurrence. In other news NYC is tied with 1875 for least snow at a trace following a mid December SECS/MECS. Imby it's .70" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, RedSky said: Partly Sunny! 47F sitting in the sun feels like 60F. If I can't make 50F today it looks like I won't do it for the month of January which is a rare occurrence. In other news NYC is tied with 1875 for least snow at a trace following a mid December SECS/MECS. Imby it's .70" Just nailed 50F/Sunny....my snow mound may be toast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Just nailed 50F/Sunny....my snow mound may be toast. Still 47F not going to happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Still 47F not going to happen You may? I got blasted w/sunshine....hit 50F. Now partly sunny, dropped a degree just like that, 49F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 @psuhoffman had an amazing post down in the mid atlantic forum highlighting the threats in the 21-31st time frame. Linking it here: I agree with a lot with what he says but I feel a bit more optimistic for the 21-22nd because we are further N than them. Even if it's a 1-3/2-4" inch wave over to light rain/drizzle I think many would take that for the first wave. Then as he breaks down, our chances in subsequent waves only look better from there. Things remained on track today and didn't get pushed back further in time, that's what i like to see. I do believe our patience will pay off! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Some hints we may touch 60F next week. Maybe this is just what the doctor ordered ie Wiggum rule (snow within following 5 days of touching 60F in prime climo). Im all for it...cant hurt things any worse. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Some hints we may touch 60F next week. Maybe this is just what the doctor ordered ie Wiggum rule (snow within following 5 days of touching 60F in prime climo). Im all for it...cant hurt things any worse. Where you seeing that? I don't see any days that touch 50 around here briefly flipping through the gfs and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Where you seeing that? I don't see any days that touch 50 around here briefly flipping through the gfs and euro. Already vanished on the GFS from last night. Bummer. Euro has a gradient with 60s underneath us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 14 hours ago, The Iceman said: @psuhoffman had an amazing post down in the mid atlantic forum highlighting the threats in the 21-31st time frame. Linking it here: I agree with a lot with what he says but I feel a bit more optimistic for the 21-22nd because we are further N than them. Even if it's a 1-3/2-4" inch wave over to light rain/drizzle I think many would take that for the first wave. Then as he breaks down, our chances in subsequent waves only look better from there. Things remained on track today and didn't get pushed back further in time, that's what i like to see. I do believe our patience will pay off! Those threats are now getting sheared to hell like most of the others this season. This pattern is either sheared/suppressed or cutter in terms of real weather. H5 is pretty good but the surface is just simply unable to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 15 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Some hints we may touch 60F next week. Maybe this is just what the doctor ordered ie Wiggum rule (snow within following 5 days of touching 60F in prime climo). Im all for it...cant hurt things any worse. Funny you say this Ralph--I was thinking the other day that it seems the only way we've gotten snow around here in recent years is a big warm up that ends with a line of severe wx (the Wiggum rule). But yeah, despite the relative mild Jan, no huge warm up seems to be in store. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Looks like a +12 high temperature departure today, forecasted high of 47. Great day to get outside. Off topic, but any hikers here? Check out Rickets Glen State Park up in Sullivan County sometime. Went yesterday and they had 5" of snow on the ground and ice everywhere. Very dangerous! We're talking 4 foot wide ledges covered in 2" ice directly next to 80' waterfall cliffs. Scary times, would recommend going in the summer if you're not experienced in winter hiking or are afraid of heights lol. Here's a pic I took of the 96' waterfall they got there. Anyway, looking at the next 10 days, its primarily two words to describe it: Cold and Dry. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 39F cloudy and a stiff breeze, Ugh well its the 15th is this day RedSky? are you throwing the towel in? Im thinking its not looking good for snow I guess there is still a long way to go but we keep trying to catch up to the pattern change and storm threats at 10 days and just not happening. Id still rather have cold and dry opposed to cold, warm, rain, cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just an incredibly dull stretch of weather. It’s not just the lack of snow, it’s the lack of anything worth following. I don’t consider it cold and dry if temperatures aren’t even below normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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