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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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On 12/1/2020 at 9:10 AM, ChescoWx said:

We just missed finishing (in a virtual tie but losing the rounding game) for the Warmest November on record with an average reading of 50.06 vs the all-time record from 1931 of 50.10

image.png.224332b302a4b51936947af6eb92c335.png

I don’t pay attention too much to records, but it seems all we ever see are record highs. Record lows only come in spurts it seems like a night or day. When is the last month during a cold season where the month was near top 5 or even 10 record low?

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3 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I don’t pay attention too much to records, but it seems all we ever see are record highs. Record lows only come in spurts it seems like a night or day. When is the last month during a cold season where the month was near top 5 or even 10 record low?

I can't necessarily speak for the Philly area, but I know in the western part of the state we have had two Top-10 coldest Novembers in the last three years ('18 - 8th, and '19 - 10th).

For the actual winter months, I'll have to go out further than Top-10.  The most recent notable record is February 2015 (second coldest ever), followed by January 2003 (11th) and December 2010 (12th) .  February of '07 and '14, December of '00 and '05, and January months of '03, '04, and '09 are all contemporary records.  However, all of those months are way down the lists in the teens or even twenties.

March is barely represented.  2014 is it on the "top" list, and it is way down there (19th).  In the Top-18 for cold March, the most recent is March of 1984.  Seems March hasn't been all that cold in a long time.

Daily and yearly records are harder to find.  1994 is the most recent cold day.  Seems the 80s were kinda cold, overall.  If we consider certain elements to be cyclical, maybe things will shift back the other direction eventually.  Or maybe climate change will prevent that and things are forever different and unpredictable.  That analysis goes above my pay grade.

TL;DR: One Top-10 in the last 20+ years: February of 2015 (for actual winter, anyway).

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Going to echo what Ralph said earlier and hope that this weekend's storm is just a sign of what's to come storm track wise. Going to be painful to watch pretty much a perfect track still end in a fail here because of the lack of cold air. Euro still showing the potential to end as some flakes to maybe a coating for the NW burbs and pocono's. 

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3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Going to echo what Ralph said earlier and hope that this weekend's storm is just a sign of what's to come storm track wise. Going to be painful to watch pretty much a perfect track still end in a fail here because of the lack of cold air. Euro still showing the potential to end as some flakes to maybe a coating for the NW burbs and pocono's. 

Revisit this setup in 3 weeks and BAM! 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png

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Judging from the recent ensemble update, I would look for our next real threat to be centered in the 12/12-12/13 range. Looks like the NAO/AO rise towards neutral and the PNA dives towards negative.  There tends to be an event centered around that flip. Details this far out as far as any specific event are useless but hopefully we will have a better stock of cold air in place for it. That's the time period I'm most hopeful at this time anyway for now. Also have to hope that rise in the AO/NAO region is short lived because with a strong Nina, a +PNA for a significant amount of time was always highly unlikely. We really need the atlantic to cooperate or it's going to be rough...

 

pna.sprd2.gif

 

ao.sprd2.gif

nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

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12z ECM first measurable snow for DC south Monday

Snow in the south before us is right out of weenie handbook rule #3 for a crappy winter. 

Rule #4 We have to wait an additional 2-4 weeks to get out first lol

* Does not apply to West Chester Paul- different climatology region

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, RedSky said:

Many fellow weenie peeps got Lucy'd in New England like we usually do. I have to dig into the arcane weenie handbook to see what this means for winter.

 

They can get screwed all winter and still end up w/10"+ more than our average...so 30" for them which isn't too shabby.

No pity here...

35F

 

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8 hours ago, RedSky said:

Many fellow weenie peeps got Lucy'd in New England like we usually do. I have to dig into the arcane weenie handbook to see what this means for winter.

 

New England Lucy'd, Euro back to leading the pack, DT on the Mid Atl forum. This is the stuff of lore that we once told our kids about and it's happening again.

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