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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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8 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I think this time next week we’ll have some very interesting events on the horizon. Aka we’ll be digital snow tracking lol. I’ll ban myself if I’m wrong but I’m starting to get excited. 

Hope you're correct. The lack of cold air continent wide has me concerned though. Combine that with ocean temps in the atl still above normal and things look pretty bleak snow wise for 95 through at least mid month imo. 

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Hope you're correct. The lack of cold air continent wide has me concerned though. Combine that with ocean temps in the atl still above normal and things look pretty bleak snow wise for 95 through at least mid month imo. 

Agreed! need to remember in January and early February is does not have to be well below normal for snow.....just the right track and strength and voila! What happens in December the winter remembers....keep the faith!!

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Just now, ChescoWx said:

Agreed! need to remember in January and early February is does not have to be well below normal for snow.....just the right track and strength and voila! What happens in December the winter remembers....keep the faith!!

I am thinking just like December we have above normal snowfall for both January and February....despite above normal temps

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

The hype meter is off the scale for rocking blocking come mid January. This should be interesting.
 

Funny thing is the PAC begins to look half decent on the GEFS then we completely lose the NAO. So we can get some colder air with sheared out waves in a progressive flow east of the Mississippi.

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19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Funny thing is the PAC begins to look half decent on the GEFS then we completely lose the NAO. So we can get some colder air with sheared out waves in a progressive flow east of the Mississippi.

The NAO is kicking off in a few days but that is going to be wasted as a result of Pacific air. But the SSW event is the bigger item.

 

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Who knows how any of this will play out and what effect it will have on the sensible weather in our backyards. All I know is the last couple of winters, I was already looking for the towel in early Jan. Give me a month of winter from Jan 15 to Feb 15 and I'll be a happy weenie.

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3 hours ago, RedSky said:

The NAO is kicking off in a few days but that is going to be wasted as a result of Pacific air. But the SSW event is the bigger item.

 

Nobody knows how the SSWE will work out.....nobody. Dont be fooled into thinking they do. Yes there are some correlations but many more questions that scientists are still working on answers for.

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Next week is looking better across guidance wrt HL blocking and subsequent ridging out west later in the period. Pattern evolution had been showing for a while but now it is getting closer in time and not being kicked later which is a great sign. 

Key features moving forward are the evolution and progression of a negative west based NAO, disturbances forced under the region, and eventually ridging in the EPO and perhaps PNA regions. 

First two 500mb maps are the Euro and GEPS showing what I am talking about. The Euro actually has a weak 50/50 in addition to a possible storm signal around day 8ish which is reflected at the surface in the bottom map.

We should finally begin to have trackable events within the next few days irt medium and longer range. 

20201231_141513.png

20201231_141620.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

Eta: ensembles continue the pattern progression with a very active and dare I say "classic" look thru the end of their runs. Euro op has another potentially bigger system brewing after day 10. Let's get thru the next few days and kick 2020 outta here. Happy New Year friends!

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Was following the ECM run at day 8 and it looked great, but with the small problem of lacking precipitation wouldn't that be a kick in the nads lol

Not to mention I think from imby N&W we are going to experience anxiety and gnashing of teeth, it's the Arnold Schwarzeneggar  of blocks predicted. As bad as 2010 was for us this could be even worse. The ugly word suppression is coming back.

 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Was following the ECM run at day 8 and it looked great, but with the small problem of lacking precipitation wouldn't that be a kick in the nads lol

Not to mention I think from imby N&W we are going to experience anxiety and gnashing of teeth, it's the Arnold Schwarzeneggar  of blocks predicted. As bad as 2010 was for us this could be even worse. The ugly word suppression is coming back.

 

Just what I like....positivity!

40F

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I see no reason to change my views of what is evolving for this winter based on the analogs in my forecast and the indices that will matter including the WPO / + PNA / - AO and / -NAO - I am on board with an above normal snow season for Western Chester County - despite how wrong my twitter and email messages keep telling me I will be....I may of course be wrong as professionals know much better than I but....I am sticking with my call. Above normal temps but above normal snowfall for Western Chester County PA

Happy New Year to all! I suspect there will be quite a few snow or rumors of snow in our future.

All the best in 2021 to you and your families!!

Paul

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