Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Some precip moving up...not sure if it's making it to the ground.(dreaded virga) 26F HR³ puts down a fresh dusting over extreme SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ensembles are beginning to highlight the week following Christmas for a favorable pattern for POTENTIAL winter storm evolution. Front comes thru Christmas morning and associated slp heads towards Nova Scotia and begins to pump a ridge near Southern Greenland over the weekend (east-based -NAO?). By the time Monday the 28th rolls around there is a blocking pattern established in the NAO region (east?). This is the period to watch (Dec 28-Jan 3) as disturbances head across the country and run into the block. Potential is high based on these looks for one of the disturbances to connect IF the blocky looks continue in the NAO. AO is neutral to slight negative, PNA ridge is trying to pump, Aleutian low is present, and there is a weak split flow off the West Coast. All are favorable teleconnections. Keep in mind this doesn't always yield a storm but these are the drivers that many look for when discussing Northeast winter storm potential. GEFS is the most aggressive wrt actually honing in on a specific threat ^ "This is the period to watch (Dec 28-Jan 3)" DT got a bit excited about this time period overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Some precip moving up...not sure if it's making it to the ground.(dreaded virga) 26F I'll be getting out the snow-noculars shortly. Snow in the air would be nice, a little fresh coating even better. Had some deer out back last night around 9 pm, one came within about 40 ft. of us, checking things out. Nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, KamuSnow said: I'll be getting out the snow-noculars shortly. Snow in the air would be nice, a little fresh coating even better. Had some deer out back last night around 9 pm, one came within about 40 ft. of us, checking things out. Nice! They're great just chillin out and walking around. They suck doing 65mph and dart in front of you. Nailed one on Rt 422 back in the 90s....scared the bejesus outta me! 26F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: ^ "This is the period to watch (Dec 28-Jan 3)" DT got a bit excited about this time period overnight... Is he hugging the Euro op? Because the EPS aren't quite as intense looking as the op. Both GFS/Euro op are more blocky and better positioning but a little far out to be using the op as gospel. If the block is too far East that is one possible way the ripe pattern comes and goes without producing (see GFS op and the pinwheel retrograding fish storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is he hugging the Euro op? Because the EPS aren't quite as intense looking as the op. Both GFS/Euro op are more blocky and better positioning but a little far out to be using the op as gospel. If the block is too far East that is one possible way the ripe pattern comes and goes without producing (see GFS op and the pinwheel retrograding fish storm). Not positive? He posted on facebook late last night. Wxrisk.com New developments about XMAS even rain to snow threat for eastern US AND strong indications or most favorable winter storm upper air pattern showing for Mid atlantic Ohio valley New England regions on DEC 29-30 and JAN 2-3 that I have seen since Jan 1996 H.E.C.S. Historic East coast snowstorm https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 light snow at the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Ripping snow lightly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Any precip hitting dry air as it approaches up this way... 28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Currently have a rain/snow mix. 33.3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Flakes falling but just barely scraped by the precip shield.. 29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: They're great just chillin out and walking around. They suck doing 65mph and dart in front of you. Nailed one on Rt 422 back in the 90s....scared the bejesus outta me! 26F Agree and agree. Got a few flakes here but it looks to be sliding off to the ENE now. Radar looks interesting in South Jersey though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 20, 2020 Author Share Posted December 20, 2020 Light snow falling here. Temp 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 28F and cloudy, we had few flurries earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Never saw so many ways to fail with an epic block the entire run as the 12z GFS op depicts lol. One of those will work....Im willing to bet on that. Too many vorts moving thru. Probably going to be a period of swift medium range tracking coming up beginning next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 39F with very limited snow meltage due to overcast skies. May have some of that pesky freezing fog overnight/early tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 GFS coming in flatter once again for the Christmas Eve system, tries to bring some backside snows down closer to the coast this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 ^ Nothing wrong w/that....I take. 36F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 MA forum going weenie ape shit after the 18z GFS Xmas run....lol 35F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Yeah with this setup not happening. Gfs likes to put too much qpf in the cold sector with fronts like this. No way.... In other news still a bit of a signal for that post Xmas system. That’s 3 runs in a row on the gfs showing a deepening low off the EC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yeah with this setup not happening. Gfs likes to put too much qpf in the cold sector with fronts like this. No way.... In other news still a bit of a signal for that post Xmas system. That’s 3 runs in a row on the gfs showing a deepening low off the EC Agree on both points. 35F * You may have to change your screen name to Hurtsadelphia soon... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Agree on both points. 35F * You may have to change your screen name to Hurtsadelphia soon... I forget how you change it. Do you have to pm the mods or is it in settings?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I forget how you change it. Do you have to pm the mods or is it in settings?! I changed mine 7-10+ years ago. PM'ed Brian (Dendrite) and it was done...things may have changed? It may still have been EasternWx back then not AmericanWx? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Dirty sky with slight blue and filtered sun, viewing conditions for the conjunction are hanging on by a thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 hours ago, RedSky said: Dirty sky with slight blue and filtered sun, viewing conditions for the conjunction are hanging on by a thread. It seems as if most celestial events are marred by cloud cover in these parts... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Mt Holly afd mentions possible table scraps with light snow overnight. Thursday night and Friday we should see some snow...noted a plowable snow Friday poconos and nw nj. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 26 minutes ago, Animal said: Mt Holly afd mentions possible table scraps with light snow overnight. Thursday night and Friday we should see some snow...noted a plowable snow Friday poconos and nw nj. May see a little something later tonight. Rain for the most part moving in now...temp here @ 38F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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