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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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22 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Don't rule out 1-3" Sunday evening se pa and NJ. 3km nam picking up on the low level cold.

Saw that too, sneaky system. Any snow won't have a hard time accumulating on the snow we already have down. Also, models picking up on a small clipper like piece of energy trying to swing through Monday night

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58 minutes ago, Newman said:

Saw that too, sneaky system. Any snow won't have a hard time accumulating on the snow we already have down. Also, models picking up on a small clipper like piece of energy trying to swing through Monday night

Euro has been sniffing that one for a few runs now laying down light accums. Ironically 12z today was the first run it backed off.

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WXSIM has snow arriving about 10am on Sunday morning - some moderate snow by 1pm with a brief period of Heavy Snow by 4pm ending by 530pm with 1" to 2" of snow accumulating....of interest it also predicts that while about 4" of snow will be on the ground on the morning of the 24th....it will all be wiped away before Christmas morning with a 45 degree high and rain.

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7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

WXSIM has snow arriving about 10am on Sunday morning - some moderate snow by 1pm with a brief period of Heavy Snow by 4pm ending by 530pm with 1" to 2" of snow accumulating....of interest it also predicts that while about 4" of snow will be on the ground on the morning of the 24th....it will all be wiped away before Christmas morning with a 45 degree high and rain.

18z GFS says maybe some fresh anafront accums morning of the 25th for you. Not a reliable setup but who knows....we've had anafront snows twice already soooo.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z GFS says maybe some fresh anafront accums morning of the 25th for you. Not a reliable setup but who knows....we've had anafront snows twice already soooo.

Hi Steve! I guess a Christmas miracle is possible...not a big believer in anafront accumlations....but heck - the Christmas magic!! Happy Holidays to you and yours!!

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1 hour ago, Animal said:

6 gfs...does not indicate much snow for accumulation. Reading possible severe weather over to snow. Possibly get a dusting. Likely change by early this coming week.

AF347065-EC38-41A2-8CC4-8FD322C7EE21.jpeg

Yeah, doesn't look great. Just have to hope the cold air blast in quicker than expected.

Hit my low of the season (I think?) at 14F

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Just now, Birds~69 said:

You seem to keep accurate data but are you sure about first teens of the season?

With a little bit of elevation on a hill we don't radiate so while a couple miles away down at Marsh Creek lake level (400 ft asl) they have had several lows in the teens ...both here at 685 ft asl and at KMQS Coatesville Airport at 660ft we both had our 1st sub-20 day of the season.

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2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

With a little bit of elevation on a hill we don't radiate so while a couple miles away down at Marsh Creek lake level (400 ft asl) they have had several lows in the teens ...both here at 685 ft asl and at KMQS Coatesville Airport at 660ft we both had our 1st sub-20 day of the season.

That may be it.

I would have thought for sure you had several teen mornings but apparently not.

 

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Nice break this week....nothing "major" to track. Maybe a stripe of light snow along the River Sunday but tbh temps are marginal. Maybe some light snow showers Monday PM. T storms Thursday night maybe ending briefly as flakes Christmas morning before temps plummet and flash freeze.

Rest up....things look blocky up North and no shortage of disturbances coming across the country as we enter the last week of 2020 and into 2021.

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3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

First snow-surrounded kettle fire with the revamped kettle fire area! We don't usually use the lamp but it's cool having power handy....

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Looks Great! But you need a whiskey bottle and a half filled glass on the table in the background for the true holiday/winter experience...:santa:

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Ensembles are beginning to highlight the week following Christmas for a favorable pattern for POTENTIAL winter storm evolution.

Front comes thru Christmas morning  and associated slp heads towards Nova Scotia and begins to pump a ridge near Southern Greenland over the weekend (east-based -NAO?). 

By the time Monday the 28th rolls around there is a blocking pattern established in the NAO region (east?). This is the period to watch (Dec 28-Jan 3) as disturbances head across the country and run into the block. Potential is high based on these looks for one of the disturbances to connect IF the blocky looks continue in the NAO. AO is neutral to slight negative, PNA ridge is trying to pump, Aleutian low is present, and there is a weak split flow off the West Coast. All are favorable teleconnections. Keep in mind this doesn't always yield a storm but these are the drivers that many look for when discussing Northeast winter storm potential. 

GEFS is the most aggressive wrt actually honing in on a specific threat

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_38.png

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_38.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10.png

gem-ens_z500a_nhem_37.png

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