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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Chris Sowers (only on air Met in Philly who loves snow) was on early this morning  discussing the storm...here he is again for the 11pm on air forecast discussing the storm. Dude's gotta be pumped! Probably be on early tomorrow morning as well...dedication.

Glad I almost never watch local network news channels going on three years, just the worst collection of weather people that all belong doing weather updates in LA.

 

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I'll have more to comment on later. Want to see the full suite of guidance before going too crazy. I don't think anything has truly changed in the macroscale in the last few hours--the 00z gfs so far basically confirms the setup vs lending to any kind of refutation of the thinking (vis a vis the 18z blip). We're still too far out to look at the mesoscale models or even the NAM so we're in a limbo period--we can see approximately what's going to happen now, we don't know the precise axis of dilitation, timing of any deformation bands, and other finer-graded minutia. At this point, without being the grinch for jinxing us, I would be shocked at less than 8. I would be fairly confident with a foot, and 16" using kuchara is within range. Remember that many years ago, the models were bulliish on the 09 blizzard, then the NAM came in and blew them out of the water. Everything so far has said this is a major event. Therefore, this isn't looking good for 6, for 4...it's a honker. Concurrently, if the storm did "bust", it would be disappointing--even though *technically* we have not seen this type of accum in 2 seasons (even if 6" fell)--but where we are right now is a major event. 00z GFS run even makes a brief go at blizzard condition criteria for Philly. However I also remember several times the last few years in which a major storm was progged (12+) and it MAJORLY busted. Thus, caution is a virtue, but take what the consensus of models are all saying with some confidence. 


Note: edits for grammar/style.

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Crazy uncle shows up hammered as well. We can't miss.

 

 

Shhhhhhhhh, don't jinx it.

Only thing keeping this from meeting max potential is it doesn't close off at H5 and crawl. It is a relative fast mover that will have high rates (1-3"/hr). But a full phased overly amped up system probably isn't what we want either given the current track and already smelling the r/s line near I95. More than giddy where we stand now, don't want to be greedy. Ready to lock it up!

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Not the first time but it's back again the ECM showing a bubble of subsidence and weaker qpf smack over SEPA likely having something to do with the transfer to the coastal. I won't be happy until it stops that garbage.

 

December has been damn evil to me the last twenty years, started off great with a foot of snow in the millennium storm but failed me in 2010&2011 this is my chance of redemption no more Mr. nice guy this is serious bizzness.

 

 

 

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Welp, one of my neighbors fired up his snowblower yesterday... I think I might have to see if I can get one of mine working since I won't have any free time between this evening and Wednesday. As much as I'd like to be superstitious and not jinx anything, it's looking like a pretty credible event is going to happen at this point.

Not sure what I'm going to do about work though. I have a 1.5 hour commute to southern NJ all this week, for which I leave at 4AM. I know they're not gonna be happy if I call out Wednesday morning, but I don't want to get there and then be stuck down there on Wednesday. My wife certainly would not appreciate it.

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19 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Welp, one of my neighbors fired up his snowblower yesterday... I think I might have to see if I can get one of mine working since I won't have any free time between this evening and Wednesday. As much as I'd like to be superstitious and not jinx anything, it's looking like a pretty credible event is going to happen at this point.

"Maybe it’s time to tune up that old snowblower that’s been sitting in your garage" - First line of this NJ.com article.

Plus if we bust, its likely to be sleet and heavy snow so you'll probably still want the blower.  

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Just now, ChasingFlakes said:

"Maybe it’s time to tune up that old snowblower that’s been sitting in your garage" - First line of this NJ.com article.

Plus if we bust, its likely to be sleet and heavy snow so you'll probably still want the blower.  

Truth. Planning on doing it today while smoking a pork shoulder. :)

 

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Lol, you guys even mention snowblower tuneup then the NAM comes in with the farthest N and W track of any model. Admittedly I dont put any stock in a 78hr NAM map but I just thought that was funny.

Neither do I but just seeing it irks me.

Win or Lose....after the GFS/Euro runs start a Wed thread? 

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28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Lol, you guys even mention snowblower tuneup then the NAM comes in with the farthest N and W track of any model. Admittedly I dont put any stock in a 78hr NAM map but I just thought that was funny.

Eta: Verbatim the NAM is an epic sleet storm for most of SE PA

We got no where to go but down hill from here!

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29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Lol, you guys even mention snowblower tuneup then the NAM comes in with the farthest N and W track of any model. Admittedly I dont put any stock in a 78hr NAM map but I just thought that was funny.

Eta: Verbatim the NAM is an epic sleet storm for most of SE PA

12z NAM shows 4" of snow tomorrow PM......

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Lol, I'll do it later today and I'll accept the scorn I rightly deserve if it blows up in my face. Right now however I'm looking at the 700mb VV progs and trying to write down what's causing it. Also need to figure out the 700mb low track and the why there. I feel that will give me a better handle on the places the models disagree and which option makes more sense in this setup--negative NAO, trending more negative, not great PNA. To be clear, the physics here will support a decent snowstorm--and some portions of the area should see heavy snow, hence, a dedicated thread makes sense (this is an Obs thread). This will, as well put in an earlier NWS AFD, be a battle between precipitation rate (and thus dynamic cooling), and warm air advection. Right now, the models are pretty confident that precip rate wins--they suggest as much as 12"+ of snow to fall in a single 6 hour window, which correlates to an average of 2"+ an hour. That would likely be sufficient to keep temps at freezing and produce a more-snow-than-not event for Philly. Figuring out the mechanisms for that to happen will be useful in determining probabilities. 

 

Edits: grammar, error of fact in one sentence.

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