Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Quite the turn of events now for Thursday. ICON is all frozen...brief thump but mostly ice...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Thursday more and more interesting. Fact that it falls during the week and starts around 6-7am right during rush hour makes it a NWS nightmare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 53 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Quite the turn of events now for Thursday. ICON is all frozen...brief thump but mostly ice...again. Cmc is close to all frozen as well. Gfs shifted pretty significantly east as well with the low. Good trends today for an all frozen event Thursday. Tuesday still looks like a washout for most except those in the lehigh valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: Cmc is close to all frozen as well. Gfs shifted pretty significantly east as well with the low. Good trends today for an all frozen event Thursday. Tuesday still looks like a washout for most except those in the lehigh valley. Agreed on Tuesday DAY....but Monday evening thru sunup Tuesday will be bad. The damage will be done. Especially N and W. Models coming in juicier also now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Nice hit on EURO. This winter full of surprises eh 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro is 4-8" of snow to ice. All frozen for most. We are about to see if it's back to being king this week. Edit: ukmet is even better than the euro. 6"+ for most. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 36 balmy degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 14" snow depth measured before whatever freezing concretion occurs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: 14" snow depth measured before whatever freezing concretion occurs You have quite a bit more there then I do only 9" here in the southern climes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I’m still at 13” here with solid iceberg’s where plowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS for Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 This looks like one of those 6 hour thumps. So it’s how much snow you can squeeze in that time period. You’re usually looking at 6-7” tops. Hopefully we can pull off a 3-6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS for Thursday Looks like a lot of mixing on the pivotal clown map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Looks like a lot of mixing on the pivotal clown map No doubt. Maybe we thump out 3-5" prior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: No doubt. Maybe we thump out 3-5" prior? Too much volatility... Another wait and see (but much waffling in between)! Last night on 11pm NBC10, Steve Sasna said we had caught a break for Monday Tuesday because the models had warmed...NOW look where we are less than 24 hours later (and it may/will change again by tomorrow evening)! This widespread deep snowpack has A LOT of staying power that no models will forecast accurately...Seen it many times over many years!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 14 hours ago, snowwors2 said: Too much volatility... Another wait and see (but much waffling in between)! Last night on 11pm NBC10, Steve Sasna said we had caught a break for Monday Tuesday because the models had warmed...NOW look where we are less than 24 hours later (and it may/will change again by tomorrow evening)! This widespread deep snowpack has A LOT of staying power that no models will forecast accurately...Seen it many times over many years!! Are you mixing up the events? Tonight is a no go. This event is Thursday that has the chance for legit snowfall. Was thinking about starting my first thread for the event since were under 4 days, but idk haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Good news for those looking forward to the warming days....yesterday marked the last day with an average high in the 30's we won't return to the 30's for normal highs until December 19th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 20 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Are you mixing up the events? Tonight is a no go. This event is Thursday that has the chance for legit snowfall. Was thinking about starting my first thread for the event since were under 4 days, but idk haha I will second that motion, but if you want to wait a few hours that's okay. Euro (and all models actually) have been trending that way. You won't jinx it, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Gfs ticked south for thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: Are you mixing up the events? Tonight is a no go. This event is Thursday that has the chance for legit snowfall. Was thinking about starting my first thread for the event since were under 4 days, but idk haha It's all yours you've been highlighting this period for weeks, it only seems right you start the thread even if it evolved much different than we originally thought. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I would take the 12z ECM Thursday 5" snow with .20" freezing rain- that on top of what will be about 9" of pure sleet density solid ice pack after the rain tonight. The pack would be tank armor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It is TOUGH to achieve a 30 day ground cover, may not have done it outside of 1994,1996,2007,2014,2015 *2011 probably did it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: Are you mixing up the events? Tonight is a no go. This event is Thursday that has the chance for legit snowfall. Was thinking about starting my first thread for the event since were under 4 days, but idk haha No, it WAS in reference to Thursday’s event... I was responding to “a lot of mixing on pivotal clown map” and Ralph’s response to that. I was saying that it was way too early to think about mixing or non-mixing as the models keep waffling on events that are only 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 45 minutes ago, RedSky said: I would take the 12z ECM Thursday 5" snow with .20" freezing rain- that on top of what will be about 9" of pure sleet density solid ice pack after the rain tonight. The pack would be tank armor. Euro is trash at this range this season. Euro H5 also screams Norther. Probably will honk long enough to suck the more southern forums in before jogging N in 48 hrs and giving us slop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro is trash at this range this season. Euro H5 also screams Norther. Probably will honk long enough to suck the more southern forums in before jogging N in 48 hrs and giving us slop. Damn it man I was just having a lil day time fantasy blurb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Damn it man I was just having a lil day time fantasy blurb I honestly think this is a nice thump to mix to dry slot for most of us with rain/mixing in the usual.areas as this ticks back N. I could actually see the 12z rgem as a very realistic solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It's hard to get too invested in anything beyond 36hrs this year. 24hrs ago we were looking at several hours of icing for this evening. And now? My hunch is by Wed this will look different -- just don't know if "different" is for the better or worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2-4" snow/sleet ending as light rain is realistic expectations are this time. Anything more is gravy but I agree with ralph I'm betting this comes north some as we get closer and we see much more mixing than currently advertised. The cool thing is we should thump hard for snow for a good 1-3 hours. Should be a nice topper to regain what we are about to lose tonight. I bet I lose close to half of my 10" tonight. That half is going to be rock solid though come Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z Viet NAM conged us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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