Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:22 PM, CoolHandMike said: Oh, I'm fairly comfortable with small engine repair. I just haven't had the time yet, what with all the other new house stuff that's been needing doing. I told my wife that if it does end up dumping on us, that's when I'll try to get one of them working. Expand If they are the older Briggs engines you'll get one working w/a little TLC... Foggy/45F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS not holding back. Looks like heavy snow shifted even into NJ. 18"+ Philly N and W... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 GFS model is a great pummeling. love this model when it prints out runs such as the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Terrible time to have messed up my back! I don't even know what I did, but definitely gonna need to borrow a blower from the neighbor if those clown maps verify. I remember trying to shovel the 28 inches from the 2016 storm and immediately giving up. I've been waiting for a deep enough storm to snowboard the steep valley betwern Mt. Misery and Mt. Joy in Valley Forge again and it looks like I might be out of commission for it! Last time it was possible without hitting rocks was March 2017 with like 8 inches of sleet. Monday's base building event would make it even better. Not sure why the links aren't embedding. https://imgur.com/a/De9sgVJ https://imgur.com/a/hbsIXm4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Definitely actively rooting against this and for good reason. Flying out Wednesday to Florida so I don't want this flight messed up. I also have my boat covered up and I've never had snow on that or on my gazebo and am extremely concerned about this much snow on both when I'm not there. Fortunately events that look this perfect five days out do not usually pan out but I have my eyes on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 5:14 PM, hurricane1091 said: Definitely actively rooting against this and for good reason. Flying out Wednesday to Florida so I don't want this flight messed up. I also have my boat covered up and I've never had snow on that or on my gazebo and am extremely concerned about this much snow on both when I'm not there. Fortunately events that look this perfect five days out do not usually pan out but I have my eyes on this one. Expand Sad to say you won't get much pity here as most (99%) want a bone crushing blizzard... Still some fog/47F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 5:19 PM, Birds~69 said: Sad to say you won't get much pity here as most (99%) want a bone crushing blizzard... Still some fog/47F Expand It's nice being on the right side of this one for a change at least so I'm pretty happy lol. How many times have you gotten your hopes out 5 days out just to be dissapointed? So it's nice for me knowing I actually won't be dissapointed when this inevitably starts falling apart Sunday night or Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:10 PM, Birds~69 said: GFS not holding back. Looks like heavy snow shifted even into NJ. 18"+ Philly N and W... Expand Wow I remember this type of setup when I was a kid. Would drive up to north eastern NJ for holiday visits and the place was buried and street parking not possible. Been a long time coming...... Lets hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Didn't see this one coming ECM killed off the Monday snow only up to 1" Is this the return of DR NO! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 6:16 PM, RedSky said: Didn't see this one coming ECM killed off the Monday snow only up to 1" Is this the return of DR NO! Expand More than last year. Wed is my main focus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The main show is a crushing, it added Monday snow to Wed-Thur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 6:26 PM, RedSky said: The main show is a crushing, it added Monday snow to Wed-Thur Expand Yep....we're still good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Early Thursday morning the low is over Cape May and I95 is getting obliterated what a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 6:27 PM, RedSky said: Early Thursday morning the low is over Cape May and I95 is getting obliterated what a run Expand We really couldn't ask to be in a better spot...SE PA has been getting drilled on just about every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 6:31 PM, Birds~69 said: We really couldn't ask to be in a better spot...SE PA has been getting drilled on just about every run. Expand In the old days a storm centered on the coast like this this would rain in Philly and all it's burbs. Something changed can't complain lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 6:35 PM, RedSky said: In the old days a storm centered on the coast like this this would rain in Philly and all it's burbs. Something changed can't complain lol. Expand I remember it well. Once KYW said it's changed to sleet/rain in Philly I knew I was doomed within an hour....then the window pings started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 6:38 PM, Birds~69 said: I remember it well. Once KYW said it's changed to sleet/rain in Philly I knew I was doomed within an hour....then the window pings started. Expand Meh less than an hour usually, sometimes minutes later as I watched the reporter live on tv. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 15-20 inch dump phl metro with the king!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 For solstice conjunction watchers a good run with high pressure overhead and clear skies *but no margin for error in between two systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 And we have the "We're Due Index" in our corner. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Well I have to say, I think we’re all a little apprehensive after the last few years. I’m caustically optimistic and I refuse to even go near my shed. Is this a Classic Miller A setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:04 PM, penndotguy said: Well I have to say, I think we’re all a little apprehensive after the last few years. I’m caustically optimistic and I refuse to even go near my shed. Is this a Classic Miller A setup? Expand Its actually a miller B but it develops far enough south that we should avoid the classic "screw zone". Honestly there just isn't a lot to pick at negative right now. Very cautiously optimistic but this seems like a text book warning level event for most of the area at minimum. Remember the big ones are usually modeled well in advance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:11 PM, The Iceman said: Its actually a miller B but it develops far enough south that we should avoid the classic "screw zone". Honestly there just isn't a lot to pick at negative right now. Very cautiously optimistic but this seems like a text book warning level event for most of the area at minimum. Remember the big ones are usually modeled well in advance. Expand Ocean temps are above normal but I don't think that will affect us? Yeah, this has been straight and steady from the get go and many runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Euro ens are hinting tucked system and mixing well inland....warm nose. Hoping thats just noise but make me a bit apprehensive to pull the trigger for SE PA even nearby burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:15 PM, Birds~69 said: Ocean temps are above normal but I don't think that will affect us? Yeah, this has been straight and steady from the get go and many runs.... Expand Yeah coastal areas will probably see rain but that was always the case. There may be a sneaky warm layer we will have to look out for as we get closer if the tucked into the coast members verify.. warm ocean temps may lead to some sleet but I don't know that for sure. Just based more on experience around here. Lows tucked into the coast typically have mixing issues further nw than progged. However we have a high in just about the perfect place. I'm pretty giddy tbh. My expectations are set at warning level(6") and it's looking great for at least that for 95 n and w. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:16 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro ens are hinting tucked system and mixing well inland....warm nose. Hoping thats just noise but make me a bit apprehensive to pull the trigger for SE PA even nearby burbs. Expand Mixing still means frozen. I don't think rain will be an issue with that high in place. Some sleet though? Definitely something we will need to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 If I recall correctly, there was a storm mid Dec 95 where we were forecasted to get 12”+. It turned into a huge sleet storm instead. Curious how similar this set up is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:21 PM, The Iceman said: Mixing still means frozen. I don't think rain will be an issue with that high in place. Some sleet though? Definitely something we will need to watch. Expand All the big ones mix, so there's that. One run not a huge concern. Didnt care for it showing up on the ens means tho. May be cause for concern if the trend continues. Probably just a blip/noise tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The model snow maps, especially the SLR 10:1, should be banned from the internet or at least so the public does not see them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 7:16 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro ens are hinting tucked system and mixing well inland....warm nose. Hoping thats just noise but make me a bit apprehensive to pull the trigger for SE PA even nearby burbs. Expand Just noise..if the op does not show what you like, zero in on the ensembles. weenie handbook chapter 7. How to find snow on any model run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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