Rtd208 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Post them here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I really hope this thread gets a lot activity this winter, maybe we flipped the script this season with the milder Oct. and Nov. opposed to the last couple where we had cooler and snow. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 3 hours ago, penndotguy said: I really hope this thread gets a lot activity this winter, maybe we flipped the script this season with the milder Oct. and Nov. opposed to the last couple where we had cooler and snow. Fingers crossed. Hoping for a reversal of fortune this year as well. Not seeing it thus far. And looking farther down the line at the ensemble means, shades of last winter with a WAR firmly in place, a NPAC flat ridge, and emergence of a SE ridge towards Christmas. Then an all-out PAC puke Nina look later in the month. Hope these modeled looks are wrong of course, but the "norm" seems a whole heck of alot different than it did 6+ years or so ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 49 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hoping for a reversal of fortune this year as well. Not seeing it thus far. And looking farther down the line at the ensemble means, shades of last winter with a WAR firmly in place, a NPAC flat ridge, and emergence of a SE ridge towards Christmas. Then an all-out PAC puke Nina look later in the month. Hope these modeled looks are wrong of course, but the "norm" seems a whole heck of alot different than it did 6+ years or so ago. Yep, I took a break over the holidays from model watching, hoping the good looks we saw last week advanced in time and showed signs of lasting... nope. Instead it looks like we get a brief period of -ao/-nao/+pna with a longshot opportunity around the 9-10th(and we still don't have a real cold source for that) then we slide into typical Nina climo. It's what I was worried about when people were calling for a front loaded winter. We'd strike out because even above average looks can be hard to materialize in December. Then we'd waste our prime climo on the typical nina pac puke look. Hopefully that nina look is just as transient as our favorable period and we flip flop throughout winter, but I have my doubts. I can totally see the pattern changing again the 3rd week of Dec and not looking back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The good news is we don't need it to be well below normal cold for it to snow in the winter! I remain confident in my winter forecast of much more snow than last year.....of course that will not be too difficult....if my forecast is accurate we will be 90% to last year's seasonal snowfall by the end of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Yo Ralph, Should we be listening for thunder today or is 11/30 too early to apply the Wiggum rule? Currently 61F with .90" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Sitting back watching things unfold there was over the top enthusiasm last week for a few days of model runs painting a false positive cold and potential snowy unexpected pattern in the first half of December. Game over on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Norman has awoken! Quote Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 515 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 105 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020 TORNADO WATCH 515 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC017-029-045-091-101-010000- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0515.201130T1805Z-201201T0000Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUCKS CHESTER DELAWARE MONTGOMERY PHILADELPHIA $$ Quote Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 515 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 105 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020 TORNADO WATCH 515 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-010000- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0515.201130T1805Z-201201T0000Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET $$ Quote Tornado Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 515 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 105 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020 TORNADO WATCH 515 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DEC001-003-005-010000- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0515.201130T1805Z-201201T0000Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Wind Advisory was extended to include my area few hours ago until 6 pm. Picked up 0.93" of rain so far today. Current temp 61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Currently at 1.29" of rain so far with temp at 64 and misty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Tornado Watch now in effect here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 22 minutes ago, RedSky said: Sitting back watching things unfold there was over the top enthusiasm last week for a few days of model runs painting a false positive cold and potential snowy unexpected pattern in the first half of December. Game over on that. It's gonna be another winter of being 10 days away from being 10 days away. Up to 63F with 1.20" of rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said: It's still fall, right? I just ran to the store and holy cow there was a strong sustained gust for a few minutes. The drop ceiling tiles in the breezeway at cvs came flying down when an old lady came in the sliding doors during the gust, she almost got taken out! Couple limbs down on the roads too. Edit: There is a tornado warning that was issued at 1:11pm. Here is a screenshot of radar from the time of the gust in Phoenixville. Great way to start the winter OBS thread with severe discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: Yo Ralph, Should we be listening for thunder today or is 11/30 too early to apply the Wiggum rule? Currently 61F with .90" of rain so far. Too early. Usually late Dec/early Jan thru around Feb 10 that rule works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Stuff popping all around. Am up to 1.42" of rain since my last reporting of that and currently 64 with a line on my doorstep. Quote Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning DEC003-NJC015-033-PAC029-045-091-101-302045- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0303.201130T2001Z-201130T2045Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 301 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northwestern Salem County in southern New Jersey... Northwestern Gloucester County in southern New Jersey... Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Southeastern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 345 PM EST. * At 301 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Elkton, moving northeast at 70 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. * Locations impacted include... Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, West Chester, Norristown, Chester, West Norriton, East Norriton, Pennsville, Yeadon, Westtown, Carneys Point, Conshohocken, Folcroft, Ambler, Swarthmore, Elsmere and Paulsboro. This includes the following highways... Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 320 and 340. Northeast Extension between mile markers 21 and 26. Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 15, and between mile markers 20 and 29. Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 0 and 23. Interstate 76 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 327 and 349. Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 14. Interstate 676 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 1. Interstate 476 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 19. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall take priority. Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be followed. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EST for northern Delaware...southern New Jersey...and southeastern Pennsylvania. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3995 7569 4022 7537 4008 7496 3944 7576 3945 7578 3972 7579 3972 7587 TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 223DEG 61KT 3961 7581 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ JEO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Too early. Usually late Dec/early Jan thru around Feb 10 that rule works. Damn! And I just heard thunder too. Up to 1.40" with some nasty stuff heading this way, dark as night out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Torrential rains and roadway flooding of the mid summer variety. Now getting dark as dusk out and all hell's about to break loose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Worcester, PA.. 2.14" rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Lots of lightning, better than summer lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Thunder/dark/rain here....may go do jumping jacks in the street to alert the neighbors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 My lightning detector has been popping. The line is still sitting west of here. There have been a few TORs down in Delaware too and the little complex is about to head across the Delaware Bay into South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 TOR lofted in Central Montco. Quote Tornado Warning Tornado Warning NJC019-PAC017-091-302130- /O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0036.201130T2053Z-201130T2130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 353 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Tornado Warning for... South central Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey... Central Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania... Central Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 430 PM EST. * At 353 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Lansdale, or 17 miles north of Philadelphia, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Lansdale, Doylestown, Byram, Chalfont, Tinicum, New Hope, Pipersville, Gardenville, Lumberville, Lambertville, New Britain, Brittany Farms-Highlands and Montgomeryville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall take priority. Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be followed. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4020 7524 4023 7528 4049 7510 4037 7494 TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 219DEG 44KT 4024 7523 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...0.00IN $$ JEO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Black sky and torrential rain, now bright sky and calm with a dark echo about to hit * axe that because noaa radar wasn't updating it done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, Hurricane Agnes said: TOR lofted in Central Montco. Kathy Orr.....near Lansdale, near me. Phone went off.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, Birds~69 said: Kathy Orr.....near Lansdale, near me. Phone went off.. Skies are wicked.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, Birds~69 said: Kathy Orr.....near Lansdale, near me. Phone went off.. Headed towards Doylestown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, Hurricane Agnes said: Headed towards Doylestown. Yep, skies look really odd... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 The worst looking final heavy decibel wave was a nothing burger-odd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I'm a little west of Lansdale, had torrential rains and gusty winds when the line came through, but I would say winds were around 35mph or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Mostly just heavy rain here, up to 2.60" for the day, looks like we might be done with the worst of it. Currently 61F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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