Monday, November 30, 2020 Heavy Rain, Strong Winds, and Severe Convection

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Tornado watch across NJ: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0515.html

 

Expecting this to continue to pull northeast as this is the corridor where convective development should continue.

Need to get the warm front thru - 

that's step 1 

pending that arrival ...then we move on to step 2 ...    

I'm wondering if this has the low lcl check-list going on ...and if the wind may also back a bit in vallies - should the warm front intrude say to Rt 2 up along N mass... and that wind funneling in low areas combined with LCL's being saturated/low bring lift cores closer down..blah blah ... 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Winds have ramped up.  30mph gusts now and temp is 61F.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It jumped from 47 to 56.8 here as the SE winds roar in pulses 

Warm front may be nearing the Pike ... or is very thin inversion remain between the Pike and N rim of CT but... you're also at what ?  ...750'  ...that may just be enough to STICK your toes up into it -

[weatherwiz]

Power outages rising quickly in CT

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Winds have ramped up.  30mph gusts now and temp is 61F.

wow...wow... I love that -  ...lucky.  Those kind of defined synoptic boundaries laying the law are fascinating.  

Still 41 at mi casa with no wind and deliciously soothing rain on the back of necks -  .... yuck

[dendrite]

37° mod/hvy rain

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Power outages rising quickly in CT

Where are you seeing that?

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It jumped from 47 to 56.8 here as the SE winds roar in pulses 

NICE ... 

yeah...I'm not thinking tor's for us NE of NYC ...  but, with the warm sector naked to the sky a ribbon echo sort of tucked or hidden on rad later in the evening may rip some dramatic mixing ...  then the wind goes calm after and we dry slot... 

But who knows - these things often "look" or appeal a certain way and then doesn't - I don't admittedly have my finger on the pulse of advection driven tornadoes in late November climatology - hahaha

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

37° mod/hvy rain

really not much different than you here N Middle-lack-of-sex County ( Ayer ...)...   41, near calm wind, R/R-

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow...wow... I love that -  ...lucky.  Those kind of defined synoptic boundaries laying the law are fascinating.  

Still 41 at mi casa with no wind and deliciously soothing rain on the back of necks -  .... yuck

Up to 54 at my place after a frosty 29.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said:

Where are you seeing that?

poweroutages.us

when from like 134 to over 1400 in 15 min.

1,421 as of 1:06

now 2,797 as of 1:22

 

[weatherwiz]

getting close to a TOR east of ABE

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Warm front may be nearing the Pike ... or is very thin inversion remain between the Pike and N rim of CT but... you're also at what ?  ...750'  ...that may just be enough to pike your toes up into it -

1,000’ 

[weatherwiz]

It is getting very windy here in Branford. something just blew into the back of someones car here

[OceanStWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

getting close to a TOR east of ABE

Break in the line. A lot to like there.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

poweroutages.us

when from like 134 to over 1400 in 15 min.

1,421 as of 1:06

now 2,797 as of 1:22

 

I mentioned this a while ago ... in jest/half joking but it's true.  You go look at NWS Obs or ...metrowest this and that, and they are routinely apple-cheeked 10 year old clone of dad out flying kites in gee-golly bambi breezes -

why in the hell cant these obs just tell the truth....  ducking wind roars are scary" - call it DWRAS ALL DIRECTIONs

[weatherwiz]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Break in the line. A lot to like there.

The inflow too is coming from higher theta-e air/CAPE to the east of it. that could really help get things going 

[ineedsnow]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Power outages rising quickly in CT

2,794. Cool site

[Hoth]

20 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Down near the CT coast. Power flashing, wind cranking, solid storm.

Yep, got a pretty good low roar overhead. Occasional strong gusts now.

[Damage In Tolland]

Don’t worry ,, they’ve got our backs 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Up to 54 at my place after a frosty 29.

word, 27 here ...  

yeah, either warm front or perhaps even a CF mixed into that mess appears to be tipping N to about 93 N or so... 

[PowderBeard]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It is getting very windy here in Branford. something just blew into the back of someones car here

Looks like gusts close to 50 right on the shore. I bet there are some 70mph gusts by the end.

[crossbowftw3]

Absolute deluge in the Catskills. If this can ingest instability as it pulls NE, look out folks.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

4 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Looks like gusts close to 50 right on the shore. I bet there are some 70mph gusts by the end.

I could see a few gusts near 80mph, like ACK and Falmouth.  Explosive storm development underway across the western locations within the new tornado watch across the central Mid Atlantic States.  Winds gusting to 28mph at CHH.

[Torch Tiger]

54.0, light breezes, rain.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Moisture transport is strong with PWATS nearing 1.5" entering the South Coast as of 18z.  Strong pressure falls underway!  Nearing -6mb/3 hours!

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t worry ,, they’ve got our backs 

 

That's going to be the issue...it remain rather gusty through tomorrow so that will hurt efforts a bit.

6 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Looks like gusts close to 50 right on the shore. I bet there are some 70mph gusts by the end.

agreed

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

It is very warm today, and the clouds are awesome looking.  Strong jet increasing over the region!

[metagraphica]

Nice constant background roar going now, with some pretty heavy gusts.  Whenever the heavier batches of rain come the wind definitely mixes down really well.

[dendrite]

These are huge rain drops. Some of the wettest I’ve seen, in terms of water.