Monday, November 30, 2020 Heavy Rain, Strong Winds, and Severe Convection

[Cyclone-68]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ekster and I were noting that too. 

Warm front moving fast too. FIT jumped 10 in the last hour.

It’s unfortunate we can’t get a warm front to move that quickly in the summer around here 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ekster and I were noting that too. 

Warm front moving fast too. FIT jumped 10 in the last hour.

The warm front progression for a SLP track just west of us is pretty impressive IMO. I wonder if the rapid pressure drop is helping to accelerate the warm front?

[weatherwiz]

Almost 40K now in CT w/o power. 

[KoalaBeer]

Starting to pick up here on the NH seacoast. Gusting to 45 on Isle of Shoals. I've had some decent events since moving here last December but nothing that's wowed me. Only thing between me and the ocean is "The Wall" so I figured I'd see some higher winds by now. Maybe this evening will impress.

Speaking of wind events I still hold Oct 2017 as the strongest I've witnessed around here but it seldom gets talked about which is weird considering Maine and NH had just about as many outages as the 2008 ice storm....but if I remember correctly areas closer to Boston didn't get hit nearly as bad. I'm guessing we hit 75-80mph where I lived in Methuen at the time but unfortunately LWM airport lost power and stopped transmitting. Never seen 5 utility poles snapped like twigs from any other wind event in the Merrimack valley. 

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Almost 40K now in CT w/o power. 

Not surprising, you get a gust of 40 in CT and people start losing power.

[dendrite]

54/52...suddenly muggy

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Not surprising, you get a gust of 40 in CT and people start losing power.

 

[weatherwiz]

The HRRR actually weakens the line relatively quickly into CT though maybe some weak supercells with the broken line? Just have to see how much instability we can penetrate in

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

The HRRR actually weakens the line relatively quickly into CT though maybe some weak supercells with the broken line? Just have to see how much instability we can penetrate in

Your GF will thank you. 

[Whineminster]

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Starting to rip now. 40+

Yeah my lights flickered a few times.  Viciously gusting out there.  Give @Damage In TollandTolland credit, and wiz.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Power on and off.

on for now 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Yeah my lights flickered a few times.  Viscously gusting out there.  Give @Damage In TollandTolland credit, and wiz.  

This was well forecasted. 

[LSC97wxnut]

Roaring just above the tree-tops.

[ice1972]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Almost 40K now in CT w/o power. 

Ya we were out for a couple hours.......back on now.....high voltage lines blew off damaged T-bar onto the light couple houses up......easy fix but that guy in the bucket was blowing all over the place and getting pelted.......

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ice1972 said:

Ya we were out for a couple hours.......back on now.....high voltage lines blew off damaged T-bar onto the light couple houses up......easy fix but that guy in the bucket was blowing all over the place and getting pelted.......

I'm surprised they have people out right now. Power outages actually down to below 30K now.

[OceanStWx]

Kind of cool seeing how well modeled this "lull" in strong wind gusts has been. The hi-res guidance shows it, the 925 LLJ forecasts show a brief reorganization. Sure enough the gusts aren't quite as extreme as the last couple of hours. But the guidance all insists that things start going to town again in another hour or two.

[OceanStWx]

Like I have my eye on that thin line of enhanced reflectivity moving towards BID. BOX V product suggesting winds increasing sharply behind it.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Kind of cool seeing how well modeled this "lull" in strong wind gusts has been. The hi-res guidance shows it, the 925 LLJ forecasts show a brief reorganization. Sure enough the gusts aren't quite as extreme as the last couple of hours. But the guidance all insists that things start going to town again in another hour or two.

Yeah even the latest HRRR shows another burst of winds like 23z-01z down this way

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Kind of cool seeing how well modeled this "lull" in strong wind gusts has been. The hi-res guidance shows it, the 925 LLJ forecasts show a brief reorganization. Sure enough the gusts aren't quite as extreme as the last couple of hours. But the guidance all insists that things start going to town again in another hour or two.

Exactly what happened here. Was ripping 50-55 mph gusts mid afternoon. Knocked half the town out of power. Then 2 hours of meh. Now it’s ramping up again . Looks like CT goes wild between about 6-9

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We out 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Exactly what happened here. Was ripping 50-55 mph gusts mid afternoon. Knocked half the town out of power. Then 2 hours of meh. Now it’s ramping up again . Looks like CT goes wild between about 6-9

You have peaked 

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Like I have my eye on that thin line of enhanced reflectivity moving towards BID. BOX V product suggesting winds increasing sharply behind it.

I told my friend who’s Norwell chief that as well. He’s a big weenie. We ramp up near 00z.

[DavisStraight]

Power out here since about 4:45

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I told my friend who’s Norwell chief that as well. He’s a big weenie. We ramp up near 00z.

SE MA really looks like it could rock with this second wave.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, KoalaBeer said:

Starting to pick up here on the NH seacoast. Gusting to 45 on Isle of Shoals. I've had some decent events since moving here last December but nothing that's wowed me. Only thing between me and the ocean is "The Wall" so I figured I'd see some higher winds by now. Maybe this evening will impress.

Speaking of wind events I still hold Oct 2017 as the strongest I've witnessed around here but it seldom gets talked about which is weird considering Maine and NH had just about as many outages as the 2008 ice storm....but if I remember correctly areas closer to Boston didn't get hit nearly as bad. I'm guessing we hit 75-80mph where I lived in Methuen at the time but unfortunately LWM airport lost power and stopped transmitting. Never seen 5 utility poles snapped like twigs from any other wind event in the Merrimack valley. 

That October 2017 gale actually had thousands more CMP customers in the dark than peak 1998 (2008 was a Mass event), but duration of outages and damage to infrastructure was many times greater in the ice storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You have peaked 

Another ramp up coming after 6. Modeled too . Similar to the 15th event. Ahead of that squalline 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

That October 2017 gale actually had thousands more CMP customers in the dark than peak 1998 (2008 was a Mass event), but duration of outages and damage to infrastructure was many times greater in the ice storm.

I really wish we had done more after-action on that event. I know our forecasts could've been better leading into the event (ramped up late on Saturday or early Sunday IIRC) and I'm not sure how well it was communicated once we starting honking.

[PhineasC]

Temp spiked to 50 in a hurry. 

1.09” so far. 

[tamarack]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I really wish we had done more after-action on that event. I know our forecasts could've been better leading into the event (ramped up late on Saturday or early Sunday IIRC) and I'm not sure how well it was communicated once we starting honking.

That storm had a 15-30 minute blast (different times at different locales) that caused almost all the damage, even though the (lesser) wind and rain lasted many times longer.  I can't recall another synoptic event that had such a short and intense peak. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another ramp up coming after 6. Modeled too . Similar to the 15th event. Ahead of that squalline 

That’s further east.