Monday, November 30, 2020 Heavy Rain, Strong Winds, and Severe Convection

[weatherwiz]

Really no thread on this???

Looks like ingredients will align on what should amount to a fairly widespread severe weather event with damaging winds and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes from the mid-Atlantic through southern New England. Forecast models really hinting at a rather impressive surge of instability with very strong dynamics. While we will also have a temperature inversion to contend with, there should be strong non-convective wind gusts as well (30-40 mph). Scattered power outages, flash flooding, and damaging winds all in the cards for tomorrow.

[PhineasC]

This could be the one that finally does Connecticut in for good.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Severe convection?

[WhitinsvilleWX]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

This could be the one that finally does Connecticut in for good.  

Damage in Tolland?

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Really no thread on this???

Looks like ingredients will align on what should amount to a fairly widespread severe weather event with damaging winds and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes from the mid-Atlantic through southern New England. Forecast models really hinting at a rather impressive surge of instability with very strong dynamics. While we will also have a temperature inversion to contend with, there should be strong non-convective wind gusts as well (30-40 mph). Scattered power outages, flash flooding, and damaging winds all in the cards for tomorrow.

Really?   Tornadoes?  Haven’t heard anything like this from local METS? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

What’s James forecast for this . 

[WinterWolf]

Scott already told him a couple days ago, no convection out on the Cape. So he’s not expecting much. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Scott already told him a couple days ago, no convection out on the Cape. So he’s not expecting much. 

I believe Scott Initially poo-poo’d it and then an hour later said “upon closer look ..maybe something that needs watching”

[WinterWolf]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I believe Scott Initially poo-poi’s it and then an hour later said “upon closer look ..maybe something “ 

Oh ok..didn’t realize that. 

[Lava Rock]

Bring it. New generator waiting for the outage

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Really no thread on this???

Looks like ingredients will align on what should amount to a fairly widespread severe weather event with damaging winds and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes from the mid-Atlantic through southern New England. Forecast models really hinting at a rather impressive surge of instability with very strong dynamics. While we will also have a temperature inversion to contend with, there should be strong non-convective wind gusts as well (30-40 mph). Scattered power outages, flash flooding, and damaging winds all in the cards for tomorrow.

We tried to tell em. They always say meh and then it roars. We know what’s coming 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I believe Scott Initially poo-poo’d it and then an hour later said “upon closer look ..maybe something that needs watching”

I did. Decent elevated CAPE, so thunder around. Could be one or two that try to rotate too.

[dryslot]

2" of rain, And gust to 40mph, Eh.

[PhineasC]

2 hours ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

Damage in Tolland?

It’s gotta be obliteration in Tolland by this point. Every time I turn around heavy, heavy damage in CT seems to be the buzz here on the forums. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It’s gotta be obliteration in Tolland by this point. Every time I turn around heavy, heavy damage in CT seems to be the buzz here on the forums. 

I’m surprised there are any trees or structures still standing on that massif 

[PhineasC]

22 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m surprised there are any trees or structures still standing on that massif 

Wind-swept devastation. The hardy folk that cling to that godforsaken rock and still manage to eek out an upper middle class suburban existence are really the heart and soul of New England.

[Damage In Tolland]

40 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It’s gotta be obliteration in Tolland by this point. Every time I turn around heavy, heavy damage in CT seems to be the buzz here on the forums. 

It’ll be 50-55 mph gusts like these events always are.  You can put it in the bank. Scattered tree and power line damage. Elevated CT always rips 50-55 mph gusts in these and over 60 in the high end ones. It’s all valley and sea level SE of here so nothing stops the winds as they hit the hills . BOX has a bunch of new mets that don’t understand CT topography 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Bring it on.  Things are damp here but nothing like I’m reading about up in the mountains where it sounds like mudslides are the worry.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

It’s gotta be obliteration in Tolland by this point. Every time I turn around heavy, heavy damage in CT seems to be the buzz here on the forums. 

Trees have taken a pounding the last few years in my area. Between three tornadoes in five years, a siggy ice storm and Isaias, to say nothing of the damaging October nor'easters in recent years, it's been a rough run. Way more damaging events than I ever remember as a kid.

[PhineasC]

39 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Trees have taken a pounding the last few years in my area. Between three tornadoes in five years, a siggy ice storm and Isaias, to say nothing of the damaging October nor'easters in recent years, it's been a rough run. Way more damaging events than I ever remember as a kid.

UN disaster aid being air-dropped overhead as you typed that?

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Bring it on.  Things are damp here but nothing like I’m reading about up in the mountains where it sounds like mudslides are the worry.

I almost slipped and fell today in the field which could have led to me sliding in the mud, yes. It’s serious bizness up here. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

UN disaster aid being air-dropped overhead as you typed that?

Do you have a Genny?

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you have a Genny?

I do. Although my power flickers and goes out for short periods of time way more often in my snug suburb in MD than it does here on the side of a mountain, surprisingly. Go figure. 

[weatherwiz]

That is one impressive LLJ modeled to traverse CT/RI/SE MA afternoon into the evening. The core of the LLJ max too also arrives while we still have some daylight so that will help with winds too (some better mixing). Then towards evening you get an impressive surge of CAPE...even some very weak surface based CAPE...but you get any sfc based CAPE in this environment and you're going to get winds. T'storms should have potential to produce 70 mph wind gusts. I think you'll see quite a bit of power outages tomorrow 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is one impressive LLJ modeled to traverse CT/RI/SE MA afternoon into the evening. The core of the LLJ max too also arrives while we still have some daylight so that will help with winds too (some better mixing). Then towards evening you get an impressive surge of CAPE...even some very weak surface based CAPE...but you get any sfc based CAPE in this environment and you're going to get winds. T'storms should have potential to produce 70 mph wind gusts. I think you'll see quite a bit of power outages tomorrow 

[CoastalWx]

Kind of a weird map. 

[weatherwiz]

I wonder if that is factoring in any thunderstorms...even if so that's pretty decent stuff

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is one impressive LLJ modeled to traverse CT/RI/SE MA afternoon into the evening. The core of the LLJ max too also arrives while we still have some daylight so that will help with winds too (some better mixing). Then towards evening you get an impressive surge of CAPE...even some very weak surface based CAPE...but you get any sfc based CAPE in this environment and you're going to get winds. T'storms should have potential to produce 70 mph wind gusts. I think you'll see quite a bit of power outages tomorrow 

That BOX has 35-40 is hilarious. Whomever issued that map has no iota of SNE Climo knowledge in these SE screamer events. You can basically draw a line from about SE VT down to BDL or just east down to Madison .anywhere east of that line gusts 50-55 mph with the highest over the shore and elevations. That’s in the normal events which this one is. This looks almost identical to the one on Nov 15th. They didn’t have HWW or even advisories and everyone east of that line gusted 50-60mph prior to the fine line squall line 

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Torch Tiger]

Looks light