Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I though I'd create a thread for this storm since there may be another one we are talking about in the main thread for the end of this week.  I think the full moon of November is technically called the Beaver Moon, but I just couldn't bring myself to call it that. 

[BhamParker]

12z 3k NAM, RGEM, and GFS looked great to me for the mountains. MRX went back to uncertainty on accumulations in there early morning discussion. We are on our way to gatlinburg now. Looking forward to it!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Ukie upped plateau totals ever so slightly

[PowellVolz]

These are my favorite threads. I get to watch people post pics of their snow while I empty my rain gauge. Can’t wait!!!!


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[John1122]

MRX has me with 70 percent snow Monday night and a low of 24. So hopefully it can get sub freezing fast. Got a little colder than forecast last night, down to 31 vs 34 that was predicted. Not a huge thing but every hour the ground gets freezing air over it it helps a little. 

[PowellVolz]

I don’t think it’s going to matter for us lower elevations people but it looks like I’m going to be 5-8 degrees below my predicted high temp. Might be a little CAD in the valley but it might make a big difference for you boys at or above 1,500ft.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Euro is trying to change over some parts of the plateau overnight into very early Mon morning:

 

 

 

[John1122]

All the models love the Eastern Rim/Western Edge of the Plateau. I expect OHX to issue a snow advisory for their Plateau counties. I believe we have a poster who lives in NW Cumberland. They may be the winners here outside the Smokies/Eastern upslope areas. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z NAM has now flipped to send the SLP primarily up east of the Apps. Changes some of Cumberland county over at around 7 - 8 AM:

  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3km has a pretty good ban around 8 AM. If that verifies I will go poke around to see if I can catch it in the morning:

 

Even showing a brief change over in @Blue Moon land around 4 - 5 AM

[snowbird1230]

Wow check out the NC mountains forecast ..

[BhamParker]

Here is the view from our cabin, as you can tell we are a good ways up here. We are right near ober gatlinburg!

[BhamParker]

7 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Wow check out the NC mountains forecast ..

 

Wow!! I can't wait to hear MRX's afternoon update. They must be working on it now.

[BhamParker]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
355 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020


TNZ041-043-045-047-072-074-087-300500-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.A.0001.201130T1200Z-201201T1700Z/
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter-
Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-
Including the cities of Hartford, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi,
Limestone Cove, Hampton, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Gatlinburg, Citico,
and Coker Creek
355 PM EST Sun Nov 29 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...
MRX pulls trigger on Winter Storm Watch.


* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches in the high elevations, with localized spots of up to 12
  inches. Lower elevations in the valley and downslope areas may
  only see 1 to 3 inches total.

* WHERE...Portions of east Tennessee.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to accumulating and
  blowing snow. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday
  morning commute, but especially by Monday afternoon and evening
  and lasting through late Tuesday morning.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

PLEASE, n one take this seriously, but it is always fun to check out the absurd numbers the NAM 3km will sometimes show for a place like LeConte for an upslope event:

 

 

 

[BhamParker]

What do you locals think I should expect being at around 2750 feet near Ober? MRX is pretty vague on the winter storm watch when it comes to "higher elevations"

 

I remember the Christmas storm of 2010 delivered some serious goods to us on Christmas night in Wears Valley. NW flow was insane with that storm and that night. We woke up to probably 6+ inches and it was incredible.

[fountainguy97]

Am I dreaming?? NAM and HRW families keep upping snowfall. And my high today was a solid 8 below modeled. 
 

someone pinch me. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, BhamParker said:

What do you locals think I should expect being at around 2750 feet near Ober? MRX is pretty vague on the winter storm watch when it comes to "higher elevations"

Honestly no clue. This should be as good a chance as any to see. I've only ever been there for an upslope the one time I mentioned yesterday in banter. This seems like a better upslope opportunity. Looks like you get WSW though. Good luck! 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

MRX is going with a chance of some snow mixed in tomorrow AM for my area.

"Rain and snow showers likely before 10am, then a chance of rain showers between 10am and 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers after 4pm. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 34 by 5pm. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected." 

 

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

What do you locals think I should expect being at around 2750 feet near Ober? MRX is pretty vague on the winter storm watch when it comes to "higher elevations"

 

I remember the Christmas storm of 2010 delivered some serious goods to us on Christmas night in Wears Valley. NW flow was insane with that storm and that night. We woke up to probably 6+ inches and it was incredible.

Not a 'Burg expert, but wild guess would be 1-3".   Will depend on how much moisture is available for upslope.  

[PowellVolz]

What do you locals think I should expect being at around 2750 feet near Ober? MRX is pretty vague on the winter storm watch when it comes to "higher elevations"

 

I remember the Christmas storm of 2010 delivered some serious goods to us on Christmas night in Wears Valley. NW flow was insane with that storm and that night. We woke up to probably 6+ inches and it was incredible.

It’s really just depends on which way the mountain faces that you are on

I’ve seen upslope events where you can see several inches of snow, drive a mile away at the same elevation and see just a dusting. At 2800ft, if you are facing in a good direction you could easily see 3-6”. Ober Gatlinburg ski area is usually a good location for orographic snows.

 

 

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[Daniel Boone]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

MRX is going with a chance of some snow mixed in tomorrow AM for my area.

"Rain and snow showers likely before 10am, then a chance of rain showers between 10am and 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers after 4pm. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 34 by 5pm. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected." 

 

That's a rather "cheesy " looking forecast. They can do better than that.

[John1122]

MRX significantly reduced the chance of snow here. It went from 70 percent down to 50 percent Monday night.  Mentions dry air above 700mb being a problem for most areas that aren't an Eastern Mountain area. 

For their mountain areas they say 1-2 inches from 2000-3500 and much more above 3500. 

[John1122]

I am surprised they issued the WWA, though they point out it's mainly above 2000 feet. 

I'm not 100 percent sure the point forecast isn't generated by the NAM forecast.  It shows the change over happening here at 8 am, and my point forecast says "Rain before 8am, then snow between 8 and 9am, then rain until 2PM, then snow after 2PM." 

[Daniel Boone]

31 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I am surprised they issued the WWA, though they point out it's mainly above 2000 feet. 

I'm not 100 percent sure the point forecast isn't generated by the NAM forecast.  It shows the change over happening here at 8 am, and my point forecast says "Rain before 8am, then snow between 8 and 9am, then rain until 2PM, then snow after 2PM." 

It looks NAM generated. 

[BhamParker]

They must be going hard with the NAM, because the EURO, GFS, and RGEM all show pretty significant snowfall just outside of the mountain areas. I’m sure they’ll change that tune after the event gets underway and if it performs a little better. I’ll be pulling hard for those at lower elevations.

[fountainguy97]

5 minutes ago, BhamParker said:

They must be going hard with the NAM, because the EURO, GFS, and RGEM all show pretty significant snowfall just outside of the mountain areas. I’m sure they’ll change that tune after the event gets underway and if it performs a little better. I’ll be pulling hard for those at lower elevations.

Yeah I’ve always thought the NaM had a wet bias but they did upgrade it last year.  It’s consistently been the driest with backside energy with all models significantly wetter.  Will be an interesting system to watch.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I meant the MRX quote more as a chance of something earlier than the main upslope event. I'm hoping I can chase it up toward the Obed in the AM while some of the deeper moisture is still around. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah just about to say the 0z NAM is even further S and E with the SLP and has a band swinging towards the plateau toward 12z 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah just about to say the 0z NAM is even further S and E with the SLP and has a band swinging towards the plateau toward 12z 

That should allow for more system generated Snowfall for the area.